Will there be any surprises when the 2022 Emmy season comes to a close Monday night? Can “Abbott Elementary” or “Hacks” topple “Ted Lasso” for Comedy Series? Could “Squid Game,” “Severance,” or “Stranger Things” take out “Succession” for Drama Series? Will members vote with their heart, likely “The White Lotus,” for the Limited Series they think they “need” to vote for, “Dopesick”? Or, will it all just go as we’d expect? Honestly, a tough call.
Looking back at the 2021 Primetime Emmy Awards almost every category landed as expected. Maybe Evan Peters was a slight surprise in Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Ewan McGregor in Lead Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie, but it wasn’t anything shocking. Even Michaela Coel‘s win for writing “I May Destroy You” was at least a hopeful prediction by many.
The 2022 ceremony is a slightly different scenario. For the most part, every major category is much more competitive than 12 months earlier. And the early results at the two Creative Arts Emmy ceremonies demonstrated that the Television Academy is, up to this point, spreading the wealth (unless you’re “Ted Lasso,” “Better Call Saul,” “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” or “Ozark” and have gone winless so far). So, chances are there will be a surprise or two. The question is, can you predict it?
Here are some educated predictions for the 2022 Primetime Emmy Awards where, in most cases, someone very worthy is going to win a shiny Emmy statue.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary
Barry
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Hacks
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso
What We Do In The Shadows
Who will win: Ted Lasso
Who should win: Barry, Abbot Elementary
Upset: Hacks, Abbot Elementary
Lowdown: “Ted Lasso” came in second among all nominated programs with 20 nominations overall. The fact it didn’t take home one award during the Creative Arts ceremonies is a red flag, but we’re not sure “Abbott Elementary” or “Hacks” can really knock it off its perch…yet. At least not this year.
Outstanding Competition Program
The Amazing Race
Lizzo’s Watch Out For The Big Grrrls
Nailed It!
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Top Chef
The Voice
Who will win: RuPaul’s Drag Race
Who should win: RuPaul’s Drag Race
Upset: Lizzo’s Watch Out For The Big Grrrls
Lowdown: “Lizzo’s Watch Out For The Big Grrrls” made a splash with six nods in its first year, but “RuPaul’s Drag Race” landed 11 (including those for its spin-off programs). No other reality competition programs came close in recognition. At the Creative Arts Emmy ceremonies, RuPaul took his seventh straight hosting award, a category voted on by all Television Academy members. “Drag Race” looks like a safe bet to win this honor for the fifth straight year.
Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
Atlanta • New Jazz
Hiro Murai, Directed by
Barry • 710N
Bill Hader, Directed by
Hacks • There Will Be Blood
Lucia Aniello, Directed by
The Ms. Pat Show • Baby Daddy Groundhog Day
Mary Lou Belli, Directed by
Only Murders In The Building • The Boy From 6B
Cherien Dabis, Directed by
Only Murders In The Building • True Crime
Jamie Babbit, Directed by
Ted Lasso • No Weddings And A Funeral
MJ Delaney, Directed by
Who will win: Bill Hader
Who should win: Hiro Murai, Bill Hader, Cherin Dabis
Upset: Lucia Aniello, Cherien Dabis
Lowdown: This field is arguably more competitive than it looks, but we still think Bill Hader will take his first in this category for “Barry.” “Hacks'” Lucia Aniello, who won this category last year, and “Only Murders in the Building’s” Cherien Dabis, also have a shot.
Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series
Ozark • A Hard Way To Go
Jason Bateman, Directed by
Severance • The We We Are
Ben Stiller, Directed by
Squid Game • Red Light, Green Light
Hwang Dong-hyuk, Directed by
Succession • All The Bells Say
Mark Mylod, Directed by
Succession • The Disruption
Cathy Yan, Directed by
Succession • Too Much Birthday
Lorene Scafaria, Directed by
Yellowjackets • Pilot
Karyn Kusama, Directed by
Who will win: Ben Stiller
Who should win: Mark Mylod
Upset: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Lowdown: Our gut says Ben Stiller will take this for “Severance,” but “Succession’s” Mark Mylod (who took the equivalent DGA Award earlier this year) and “Squid Game’s” Hwang Dong-hyuk are also in the mix.
Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Dopesick • The People vs. Purdue Pharma
Danny Strong, Directed by
The Dropout • Green Juice
Michael Showalter, Directed by
The Dropout • Iron Sisters
Francesca Gregorini, Directed by
MAID • Sky Blue
John Wells, Directed by
Station Eleven • Wheel Of Fire
Hiro Murai, Directed by
The White Lotus
Mike White, Directed by
Who will win: Mike White
Who should win: Hiro Murai
Upset: Hiro Murai or Danny Strong
Lowdown: Over the past decade, this category is 50/50 with both the director and the limited series itself taking home Emmys. For instance, last year Scott Frank won this honor and “The Queen’s Gambit” took the overall Limited Series prize. That should mean either Mike White (“The White Lotus”) or Danny Strong (“Dopesick”) winning this Emmy. Of course, the other trend could pop up and Hiro Murai could win for “Station Eleven,” which didn’t make the Limited Series cut. Maybe.
Outstanding Drama Series
Better Call Saul
Euphoria
Ozark
Severance
Squid Game
Stranger Things
Succession
Yellow Jackets
Who will win: Succession
Who should win: Succession
Upset: Squid Game, Stranger Things
Lowdown: While “Severance” clearly has its fans in the Television Academy, the results of the Creative Arts Emmys saw “Stranger Things” with five and “Squid Game” with four trophies so far. Why are we picking “Succession” then? The fact it leads all programs with 25 nominations might be a good reason why.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Atlanta
Donald Glover as Earn
Barry
Bill Hader as Barry Berkman / Barry Block
The Great
Nicholas Hoult as Peter/Pugachev
Only Murders In The Building
Steve Martin as Charles-Haden Savage
Only Murders In The Building
Martin Short as Oliver Putnam
Ted Lasso
Jason Sudeikis as Ted Lasso
Who will win: Bill Hader
Who should win: Martin Short
Upset: Martin Short, Jason Sudeikis
Lowdown: Donald Glover and Jason Sudeikis, have both won this category previously (the “Ted Lasso” star took it last year), but Bill Hader has won it every time he’s been eligible. This is also an award where someone like Martin Short or even his “Only Murders in the Building” co-star, Steve Martin, could easily surprise.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Ozark
Jason Bateman as Marty Byrde
Succession
Brian Cox as Logan Roy
Squid Game
Lee Jung-jai
Better Call Saul
Bob Odenkirk
Severance
Adam Scott as Mark Scout
Succession
Jeremy Strong as Kendall Roy
Who will win: Lee Jung-jai
Who should win: Brian Cox
Upset: Brian Cox, Bob Odenkirk
Lowdown: “Squid Game’s” Lee Jung-jai should duplicate his historic win at the SAG Awards here. If not him then “Succession’s” Brian Cox or “Better Call Saul’s Bob Odenkirk will win their first in this particular category.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
The Staircase
Colin Firth as Michael Peterson
Under The Banner Of Heaven
Andrew Garfield as Detective Jeb Pyre
Scenes From A Marriage
Oscar Isaac as Jonathan
Dopesick
Michael Keaton as Dr. Samuel Finnix
Station Eleven
Himesh Patel as Jeevan Chaudhary
Pam & Tommy •
Sebastian Stan as Tommy Lee
Who will win: Michael Keaton
Who should win: Sebastian Stan, Himesh Patel
Upset: Colin Firth, Himesh Patel
Lowdown: Like Jung-jai, Michael Keaton should repeat his SAG Awards win for “Dopesick.” Probably a pretty safe pick, to be honest.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Rachel Brosnahan as Miriam ‘Midge’ Maisel
Abbott Elementary
Quinta Brunson as Janine Teagues
The Flight Attendant
Kaley Cuoco as Cassie Bowden
The Great
Elle Fanning as Catherine The Great
Insecure
Issa Rae as Issa
Hacks
Arts Entertainment
Jean Smart as Deborah Vance
Who will win: Jean Smart
Who should win: Quinta Brunson
Upset: Quinta Brunson
Lowdown: It would be amazing if “Abbott Elementary’s” Quinta Brunson took this (don’t worry she’ll be rewarded down the page), but there’s almost no way “Hacks'” Jan Smart is losing this one.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Killing Eve
Jodie Comer as Villanelle
Ozark
Laura Linney as Wendy Byrde
Yellowjackets
Melanie Lynskey as Shauna
Killing Eve
Sandra Oh as Eve Polastri
The Morning Show
Reese Witherspoon as Bradley Jackson
Who will win: Zendaya
Who should win: Zendaya, Melanie Lynskey
Upset: Melanie Lynskey
Lowdown: “Euphoria” somehow earned 16 nominations. If the Television Academy is going to reward it anywhere it’s in a second win for star Zendaya, perhaps the only universally praised performance/aspect of the HBO series.
