Yes, this year’s Emmy race has been insanely competitive. And, yes, there will be a slew of snubbed series and performances that will make critics want to pull their hair out (assuming they have any left). But, the good news is with so many submissions the Television Academy’s sliding scale rule will help ease the pain with additional slots in key categories. Then again, it won’t completely solve the problem.
READ MORE: “Abbott Elementary” leads 2022 TCA Award nominations
Acclaimed programs such as “Succession,” “Squid Game,” “The Dropout,” “Maid,” “Hacks,” “Only Murders in the Building,” “Abbott Elementary,” “Ted Lasso” and “Barry” should earn a ton of nominations. Whether programs such as “Reservation Dogs,” “Severance,” “Gaslit,” “PEN15,” “Station Eleven,” “Somebody Somewhere” and “Pachinko,” truly get the recognition they deserve remains to be seen. Oh, and as always, “Saturday Night Live” will once again get way too many nods.
Having been in the Emmy season trenches for months, we’re presenting our 2022 nomination predictions with a few caveats. If you’re looking for TV movie predictions you won’t find them here. That category is always a crapshoot and the only film that’s a lock (maybe) is Barry Levinson’s “The Survivor.” There will be few surprises in the Variety Talk Series or Variety Sketch Series categories either. Keeping all that in mind…
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish”
Donald Glover, “Atlanta”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Snubbed: Rhys Darby, “Our Flag Means Death,” Nicholas Hoult, “The Great,” John Cena, “Peacemaker,”
Lowdown: In theory, maybe Martin Short gets snubbed. Or maybe Anthony Anderson doesn’t make it for “Black-ish’s” final season. In reality, if any of these five don’t make the cut it’s likely Donald Glover.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Kaley Cuoco, “The Flight Attendant”
Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”
Sarah Lancashire, “Julia”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Snubbed: Pamela Adlon, “Better Things,” Issa Rae, “Insecure,” Natasha Lyonne, “Russian Doll,” Bridged Everett, “Somebody Somewhere”
Lowdown: Two questions here. First, will Rachel Brosnahan, a former winner in this category, earn her fourth nomination in this category? She should be safe, but a lot of legitimate contenders are lurking in the wings. Second, does Selena Gomez deserve this nomination over the rest of the field? And, if not, will Television Academy members realize that? Ponder.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Brian Cox, “Succession”
Kevin Costner, “Yellowstone”
Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Jeremy Strong, “Succession”
Snubbed: Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us,” Adam Scott, “Severance,” Lee Min-Ho, “Pachinko,” Tom Hiddleston, “Loki”
Lowdown: We’ve got Sterling K. Brown on the outside looking in, but it should be noted the former winner has been nominated for his role in “This Is Us” for five straight seasons. Will he really miss out now?
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Anniston, “The Morning Show”
Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve,”
Laura Linney, “Ozark”
Mandy Moore, “This Is Us”
Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
Zendaya, “Euphoria”
Snubbed: Kelly Reilly, “Yellowstone,” Britt Lower, “Severance,” Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age,” Juliette Lewis, “Yellowjackets”
Lowdown: Zendaya and Melanie Lynskey are really the only two locks here. Any of the other four could easily miss out.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Andrew Garfield, “Under the Banner of Heaven”
Ben Foster, “The Survivor”
Colin Firth, “The Staircase”
Samuel L. Jackson, “The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey”
Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”
Sebastian Stan, “Pam and Tommy”
Snubbed: Oscar Isaac, “Scenes From A Marriage,” Paul Bettany, “A Very British Scandal,” Himesh Patel, “Station Eleven”
Lowdown: We’re going with our gut with Sebastian Stan, but he’s on shaky ground here.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Toni Collette, “The Staircase”
Julia Garner, “Inventing Anna”
Lily James, “Pam and Tommy”
Margaret Qualley, “Maid”
Julia Roberts, “Gaslit”
Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout”
Snubbed: Michelle Pfeiffer, “The First Lady,” Jessica Chastain, “Scenes From A Marriage,” Claire Foy, “A Very British Scandal,” Elle Fanning, “The Girl From Plainville,” Mackenzie Davis, “Station Eleven”
Lowdown: One of the many bloodbaths this Emmy season even with an extra slot. You could argue any one of the remaining five are just as deserving of a nomination.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Carrigan, “Barry”
Paul W. Downs, “Hacks”
Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
Tony Shaloub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Kenan Thompson, “Saturday Night Live”
Brian Tyree Henry, “Atlanta”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live”
Snubbed: David Hyde Pierce, “Julia,” Brendan Hunt, “Ted Lasso,” Harvey Guillen, “What We Do In The Shadows,” Taika Waititi, “Our Flag Means Death”
Lowdown: Likely the eight, but David Hyde Pierce or Brendan Hunt could sneak in.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”
Sarah Goldberg, “Barry”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
Cecily Strong, “Saturday Night Live”
Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso”
Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
Snubbed: Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary,” Meg Stalter, “Hacks,” Aidy Bryant, “Saturday Night Live”
Lowdown: In a perfect world Sheryl Lee Ralph and Meg Stalter earn their first Emmy nods. Fingers crossed for the upset.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nicholas Braun, “Succession”
Keiran Culkin, “Succession”
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show”
Giancarlo Esposito, “Better Call Saul”
Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
John Turturro, “Severance”
Oh Young-soo, “Squid Game”
Christopher Walken, “Severance”
Snubbed: Eric Dane, “Euphoria,” Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul,” Owen Wilson, “Loki”
Lowdown: A tough call for the final eighth added slot this year. We went with Christopher Walken, but it’s a toss-up.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Patricia Arquette, “Severance”
Julia Garner, “Ozark”
Jung Ho-yeon, “Squid Game”
Christina Ricci, “Yellowjackets”
Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”
Sarah Snook, “Succession”
Sydney Sweeney, “Euphoria”
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Pachinko”
Snubbed: Julianna Margulies, “The Morning Show,” Sadie Sink, “Stranger Things,” Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things,” Christine Baranski, “The Gilded Age”
Lowdown: Could Millie Bobbie Brown or Sadie Sink make it over Christina Ricci or Yuh-Jung Youn? Maybe.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Naveen Andrews, “The Dropout”
Marry Bartlett, “The White Lotus”
Matthew Goode, “The Offer”
William H. Macy, “The Dropout”
Nick Robinson, “Maid”
Peter Sarsgard, “Dopesick”
Sam Waterston, “The Dropout”
Snubbed: Michael Stuhlbarg, “Dopesick,” Wyatt Russell, “Under the Banner of Heaven,” Seth Rogen, “Pam and Tommy,” Jake Lacy, “The White Lotus,” Dan Stevens, “Gaslit”
Lowdown: Might be a little too much love for “The Dropout,” but we’ll take our chances.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Juliette Binoche, “The Staircase”
Connie Britton, “The White Lotus”
Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
Kaitlyn Dever, “Dopesick”
Betty Gilpin, “Gaslit”
Andie MacDowell, “Maid”
Laurie Metcalf, “The Dropout”
Snubbed: Alexandra Daddario, “The White Lotus,” Ellen Burstyn, “The First Lady”
Lowdown: Could three “White Lotus” stars make this category? Potentially, but we think voters spread the wealth.
Outstanding Reality-Competition Series
“RuPaul’s Drag Race”
“Legendary”
“Nailed It”
“Top Chef”
“The Amazing Race”
“The Voice”
Snubbed: “Survivor,” “Lizzo’s Watch Out For The Big Grrrls,” “Is It Cake,” “American Ninja Warrior”
Lowdown: An increase of one slot should give “Legendary” its first nomination. If not, look for “Survivor” or, sigh, “American Ninja Warrior” to return to the fold.
Outstanding Limited Series or Anthology Series
“Dopesick”
“The Dropout”
“Gaslit”
“Maid”
“The Staircase”
“The White Lotus”
Snubbed: “Station Eleven,” “Under the Banner of Heaven,” “Inventing Anna,” “Pam and Tommy,” “1883,” “The First Lady,” “The Girl from Plainville”
Lowdown: Listen, maybe “Station Eleven” pulls through. Maybe Netflix’s reach powers “Inventing Anna” to a nod. We’re going with “Gaslit” with the final nod, however, and admit we’re not feeling great about it.
Outstanding Comedy Series
“Abbott Elementary”
“Atlanta”
“Barry”
“Hacks”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Ted Lasso”
“What We Do In The Shadows”
Snubbed: “Reservation Dogs,” “The Great,” “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” “Our Flag Means Death,” “Russian Doll,” “PEN15,” “Somebody Somewhere”
Lowdown: “Atlanta,” “Maisel” and “What We Do” are borderline. We’re hoping “Reservation Dogs” makes the cut, but skeptical not enough Television Academy members have paid attention to the Peabody Award winner.
Outstanding Drama Series
“Better Call Saul”
“Ozark”
“Severance”
“Squid Game”
“Stranger Things”
“Succession”
“Yellowjackets”
“Yellowstone”
Snubbed: “This Is Us,” “Euphoria,” “Pachinko,” “Loki,” “The Gilded Age,” “Evil,” “Bridgerton”
Lowdown: If “This Is Us” goes out with another Drama Series win for its final season, who’s out?
