We’ve now reached the halfway point in the voting period for the 71st Emmy Awards. At this point, any additional FYC ads, screening events or publicity stunts will only do so much. There are 24,000 or so members of the Television Academy and you’ve either reached them or you haven’t. HBO, Netflix, Amazon Prime Video, FX and Showtime, in particular, have a lot on the line. Let’s dive into some of the big questions that these major networks or streaming services with Emmys hauls on the line will lose sleep over before the awards are handed out at three different ceremonies beginning Saturday, Sept. 14.
Is the “Fleabag” love a mirage?
Speak to any creative in the episodic business about a show they are obsessed about and passionate for and it’s “Fleabag.” The first season found a cult and critical but it ended up with zero Emmy nods. The second time around it stunned even U.S. distributor Amazon with 11 nominations including five acting nods. “Veep” is seemingly invincible as a beloved series that’s come to a seemingly satisfying end that everyone assumed was a lock to win one last Comedy Series Emmy. And if not, the upset was supposed to be last year’s winner, another Amazon series, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel.” And yet, the passion surrounds “Fleabag.” Is it real? Have enough members actually watched it to overtake such incredible odds? Ponder.
A potential “Game of Thrones” domination means Kit Harrington is in play
Listen, we’ll admit Harrington’s acting chops were better in the final season of “GoT” than he’d demonstrated previously, but only the Television Academy’s massive love for the pop culture phenomenon got him an Emmy nods for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series this time around (his second following a Supporting Actor nod in 2016). Here’s the thing though. His competition is “Better Call Saul’s” Bob Odenkirk (who should have won already), “Pose’s” Billy Porter (who should probably win next year) and “This is Us'” Sterling K. Brown (who won two years ago). If voters make it a “Throne” night to remember don’t be surprised if Harrington finds his way to the stage. Three of the last five winners in this category were actors playing a landmark role in their final season, like Harrington.
Is this finally Sandra Oh’s Emmy moment?
Now a nine-time nominee, many thought the “Grey’s Anatomy” star would win for her acclaimed work last year for “Killing Eve” when she became the first Asian actress to ever be nominated in the Outstanding Lead Actress category. Instead, “The Crown’s” Claire Foy upset both Oh and the previous year’s winner, “The Handmaid’s Tale’s” Elisabeth Moss, to take the Emmy. This year Oh is facing not only her “Killing Eve” co-star, Jodie Comer, but the Queen of Dragons herself, Emilia Clarke. Something tells us to expect the unexpected here and that could be a win for Oh.
Can RuPaul tie Jeff Probst’s four-time hosting streak?
The Outstanding Reality-Competition Host Emmy has only been around since 2008 and just six people have won it during that period. “Survivor’s” Jeff Probst (four times), “RuPaul’s Drag Race’s” RuPaul Charles (three times), “Hollywood Game Night’s” Jane Lynch (twice) as well as “Dancing with the Stars'” Tom Bergeron and “Project Runway’s” Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn (once each). Now, Charles is up for a third straight Emmy in this category which would tie the initial run of Probst. Pulling it off is no easy task with James Corden, Ellen DeGeneres, Marie Kondo and Amy Poehler and Nick Offerman in the running. Charles “should” win, but if Netflix has the influence it does over the Television Academy- in terms of viewership – you simply can’t discount Kondo for the upset.
Will a first-timer overcome three Oscar winners?
Jharrel Jerome was spectacular in Ava DuVernay’s “When They See Us.” The 21-year-old played the role of Korey Wise, one of the Central Park Five, not only as a teenager but over almost two decades of his lfe. And while he earned accolades for his role in Barry Jenkins‘ Best Picture-winning “Moonlight,” he now finds himself up for his first Emmy against some insane competition in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie category. Competition such as Oscar winners Sam Rockwell (“Fosse/Verdon”), Benicio del Toro (“Escape at Dannemora”) and Mahershala Ali (“True Detective”) as well as Hugh Grant (“A Very British Scandal”) and Jared Harris (“Chernobyl”). But out of all those nominated programs none of them have as many acting nominations as the eight “When They See Us” procurred. Will justice prevail for Jerome?
How many more times will Amy Adams loose?
Listen, we love Amy Adams. We really, really do. But, boy, has she had some bad luck. She’s racked up six Oscar nominations without a win and is now set to come up short in her first Emmy nomination for Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie category. That seemed inconceivable when “Sharp Objects” aired last summer, but that was before Patricia Arquette dominated the year-end awards for “Escape at Dannemora,” Joey King blew critics away in “The Act” and Michelle Williams transformed herself into Gwen Verdon for “Fosse/Verdon.” Adams could theoretically still pull it off, but going to all these awards ceremonies and continuing to come up short cannot be fun.
Which “Game of Thrones” star wins Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series?
We’re not so sure having four “Game of Thrones” actresses in one category means they are all gonna cancel each other out. That’s not great news for “Killing Eve’s” Fiona Shaw or “Ozark’s” Julia Garner. Gwendoline Christie, who smartly self-submitted herself, Sophie Turner, Lena Headey and Maise Williams were all rewarded for the impressive body of work on the HBO staple. It’s got to be Williams though, right? Or maybe Headey? Turner? The heart of the show, Christie? Nah, it’s Williams, right? Right?
Will Beyonce finally get an Emmy win?
The Queen Bee already had four Emmy nominations before this year, but earned another four in conjunction with her Netflix documentary and performance special, “Homecoming.” She’s up for Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded), Outstanding Directing for a Variety Special, Outstanding Music Direction and Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special. We “expect” her to win Music Direction and, much to the shock of Beyonce’s loyal fans, that may be it.
A Limited Series race for the ages
Remember the hype of “Big Little Lies” vs. “Feud”? That was child’s play compared to this season’s race for the Limited Series Emmy between DuVernay’s “When They See Us” and Craig Mazin’s “Chernobyl.” The former has 16 Emmy nods overall while the latter has 19. The true differentiator, however, may come from the Television Academy’s performer peer group. As noted previously, “When They See Us” earned an eye-popping eight acting nominations whereas “Chernobyl” landed just three. That difference in support could be what pushes the DuVernay’s Netflix decades-spanning drama over the top. Maybe.
Can Netflix overtake HBO for most Emmy wins this year?
Both creative powerhouses tied for 23 Emmy wins overall in 2018. In theory, HBO, which has 20 more individual nominations than Netflix this year, should benefit with so many creative nods across different categories for “Game of Thrones,” “Barry” and “Chernobyl.” Netflix, on the other hand, has a wider berth of category nods including specials and reality-television nods that HBO does not. If a bunch of those surprise and Amazon’s “Fleabag” or “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” overperform, it could be much closer than the nomination tallies suggest.
2019 Emmy Prediction Pages
Drama Series
Comedy Series
Limited Series
Reality-Competition Series
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie