Best Supporting Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama, Musical or Comedy
Likely
Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Borderline
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Wildcards
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Tiffany Haddish, “Girls Trip”
Nicole Kidman, “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”
Lowdown:
The only locks here are Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf. The rest of the field could easily be made up of any of the remaining seven actresses. Should be noted that Paramount has been pushing Hong Chau hard; Tiffany Haddish was a surprise NYFCC winner that got her into the mix (maybe); and you know they just love Nicole Kidman (I mean, who doesn’t?). Mary J. Blige, in theory, should be a given, but is she? Is Lesley Manville a last minute addition or just a reach by pundits covering the race? Ponder.
Best Supporting Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama, Musical or Comedy
Likely
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Armie Hammer, “Call Me By Your Name”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Borderline
Michael Stuhlbarg, “Call Me By Your Name”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Wildcards
Kenneth Branagh,”Dunkirk”
Idris Elba, “Molly’s Game”
Harrison Ford, “Blade Runner 2049”
Ben Mendelsohn, “Darkest Hour”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Mark Rylance, “Dunkirk”
Lowdown:
I mean, you don’t think they would nominate Christopher Plummer just for the publicity, do you? Because in their eyes it would be making a “statement?” No? Oh, the HFPA changes, but it never really changes.
Best Director
Likely
Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Luca Guadagnino, “Call Me By Your Name”
Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Borderline
Steven Spielberg, “The Post”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Lowdown:
All I’m gonna say is that if the HFPA snub Jordan Peele, Guillermo del Toro or Greta Gerwig, the social media blowback will be massive. (Note to DGA and Academy members as well)
Best Screenplay
Likely
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Borderline
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Molly’s Game”
Lowdown:
Potentially down to Guillermo del Toro’s “Shape” script or Aaron Sorkin’s “Molly’s Game” adaptation to round out this category, but it’s possible both make it and they snub James Ivory’s work on “Call Me” instead.
Best Original Score
Likely
“Dunkirk”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Shape of Water”
Borderline
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Coco”
“Darkest Hour”
“The Greatest Showman”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“Victoria and Abdul”
“Wonderstruck”
Wildcards:
“mother!”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“Wonder Woman”
Lowdown: “Dunkirk” and “Shape of Water” are the only real givens here. The rest is almost a pick ‘em.
Best Original Song
Likely
“I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from “Fifty Shades Darker”
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman”
“Remember Me” from “Coco”
“Visions of Gideon” from “Call Me By Your Name”
Borderline
“Days in the Sun” from “Beauty and the Beast”
“Evermore” from “Beauty and the Beast”
“Hold The Light” from “Only the Brave”
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound”
“Stand up for Something” from “Marshall”
“The Star” from “The Star”
“There’s Always Something Special” from “Despicable Me 3”
“To Be Human” from “Wonder Woman”
Lowdown:
This actually quite competitive. Easy to see both “Call Me” songs canceling each other out and the movie being snubbed overall from this category.
Best Animated Feature Film
Likely
“The Breadwinner”
“Coco”
“Loving Vincent”
“The Lego Batman Movie”
Borderline
“The Boss Baby”
“Despicable Me 3”
“Ferdinand”
Lowdown:
The word is “Ferdinand” is surprisingly good, but Fox has waited until the last possible moment to show it to critics and the HFPA. Without critics falling around it, will it make the cut? Or will the Globes go with an old standby franchise like “Despicable Me 3”?
Best Foreign Language Film
Likely
“A Fantastic Woman”
“Loveless”
Borderline
“BPM”
“Divine Order”
“First They Killed My Father”
“Foxtrot”
“In the Fade”
“The Insult”
“The Square”
Lowdown:
This category is gonna break some hearts. The HFPA is all over the place this year in this category (not usually the case) and they dislike more than they like. For example, they love Angelina Jolie but they don’t love her movie (“First They Killed My Father”). “Loveless” and “A Fantastic Woman” are “likely” the only locks. Any of the remaining six could fill out the field.
