The night when the worlds of film and television unite is almost upon us. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association are set to open their doors to their annual party where alcohol is encouraged, the winners take it seriously and the losers remind themselves that, hey, it’s just the Golden Globes. This year, however, the HFPA picks will have many consultants and studio executives on the edge of their seat.
READ MORE: Snubs and Surprises of the 2019 Golden Globes nominations
For the past few years the Globes have occured just a few days or more before Academy members send in their final Oscar nomination votes. Notably, 2019 will be the longest period before the awards show telecast and the voting deadline. The Globes are handed out Sunday night, Jan. 6 and AMPAS member votes must be submitted by Monday, Jan 14. Basically, a full week for studios to hawk their winners and, notably, for members to take the Globe picks into consideration when they likely vote early the week of Jan. 9. As discussed in pervious posts, the Globe nominations don’t influence Oscar voters, but almost everyone in the awards season game recognizes the public relations coup a Golden Globes Award win can be. And for films such on the cusp of a Best Picture nominations such as “Mary Poppins Returns,” “Vice,””Bohemian Rhapsody” or “Crazy Rich Asians” that means something.
On the television side, along with the SAG, PGA and DGA Awards, the 2019 Emmy race effectively begins now. Will a Best Drama Series win for “Pose” make it a player for Emmy’s Drama prize next summer? You bet. Can any wins for “The Good Place” make them a bigger Comedy category contender? Without question. And if you are “Bodyguard,” “Homecoming” or “Kidding” any win here could be key to making Emmy voters pay attention down the road.
Keeping all this in mind, here’s a rundown of some highly sourced prediction in a year where almost anything can happen. Unless it’s a category with Lady Gaga of course.
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Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“A Star Is Born”
Who will win: “A Star is Born”
Who should win: “If Beale Street Could Talk” or “BlacKkKlansman”
Upset: “Black Panther,” “BlackkKlansman,” “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Lowdown: In theory, this is “A Star is Born” all the way. The HFPA never want to be “wrong” and Cooper’s melodrama is still the odds-on favorite to win the Best Picture Oscar. That being said, they love “Bohemian” and “Black Panther” or “BlacKkKlansman” could surprise too. But, it’s still probably “Star is Born” all the way.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Glenn Close (“The Wife”)
Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”)
Nicole Kidman (“Destroyer”)
Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
Rosamund Pike (“A Private War”)
Who will win: Lady Gaga
Who should win: Nicole Kidman or Melissa McCarthy
Upset: Glenn Close
Lowdown: The HFPA loves Close, but they also love Gaga having given her a ridiculous win for her work on “American Horror Story.” Anyone else would be a shock.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”)
Willem Dafoe (“At Eternity’s Gate”)
Lucas Hedges (“Boy Erased”)
Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”)
John David Washington (“BlacKkKlansman”)
Who will win: Rami Malek
Who should win: Willem Dafoe
Upset: Bradley Cooper
Lowdown: This is a very tough category in some respects, but it’s also where they can reward “Bohemian Rhapsody’s” Malek while knowing Cooper can get his Globe in the biggest category of the night. Maybe.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
“Crazy Rich Asians”
“The Favourite”
“Green Book”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Vice”
Who will win: “The Favourite”
Who should win: “The Favourite”
Upset: “Crazy Rich Asians” or “Vice”
Lowdown: If “Mary Poppins Returns” had been a bit more of a blockbuster it might have pulled it off, but right now “The Favourite” looks like it will live up to its namesake. Then again, the HFPA liked “Vice” a ton and are very aware of the positive optics of rewarding “Crazy Rich Asians” with a win.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Emily Blunt (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”)
Elsie Fisher (“Eighth Grade”)
Charlize Theron (“Tully”)
Constance Wu (“Crazy Rich Asians”)
Who will win: Olivia Colman
Who should win: Olivia Colman
Upset: Emily Blunt
Lowdown: Blunt has a definite shot, but Colman is pretty much universally adored for her work in “The Favourite.”
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Christian Bale (“Vice”)
Lin-Manuel Miranda (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”)
Robert Redford (“The Old Man & the Gun”)
John C. Reilly (“Stan & Ollie”)
Who will win: Christian Bale
Who should win: Christian Bale
Upset: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Lowdown: This is the category where “Vice” may get its HFPA love. If not Bale, don’t be surprised if Miranda adds a Globe to his already crowded awards mantle.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Amy Adams (“Vice”)
Claire Foy (“First Man”)
Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)
Emma Stone (“The Favourite”)
Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”)
Who will win: Rachel Weisz
Who should win: Regina King
Upset: Regina King or Amy Adams
Lowdown: Boy, have things changed. A month ago it looked like an Adams or King showdown, and both may still win, but the odds-on favorite is likely Weisz. We know we’re predicting a lot of love for “The Favourite,” but think the HFPA’s preference for it is justified (at least from our intel).
Best Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”)
Timothee Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”)
Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman”)
Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
Sam Rockwell (“Vice”)
Who will win: Richard E. Grant
Who should win: Richard E. Grant
Upset: Mahershala Ali or Timothee Chalamet
Lowdown: Grant has been working the circuit and should take this one. If not, expect Ali to give “Green Book” some love.
Best Motion Picture – Animated
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Who will win: “Incredibles 2”
Who should win: “Isle of Dogs”
Upset: “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Lowdown: This is a tough one. HFPA is likely to make the safe pick with “Incredibles 2,” but the hype for “Spider-Verse” may be too much for them to ignore. If super-heroes simply aren’t their tea, look for Wes Anderson’s “Isle of Dogs” to win (he’s now effectively a five-time nominee).
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
“Capernaum”
“Girl”
“Never Look Away”
“Roma”
“Shoplifters”
Who will win: “Roma”
Who should win: “Roma”
Upset: None
Lowdown: There is no way the HFPA embarrass themselves by not picking Alfonso Cuaron’s celebrated drama here. Then again, they already voted for a silly snub of “Cold War” so anything is possible.
Best Director – Motion Picture
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”)
Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”)
Peter Farrelly (“Green Book”)
Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”)
Adam McKay (“Vice”)
Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who should win: Spike Lee
Upset: Bradley Cooper, Spike Lee
Lowdown: Spike Lee would be my winner here, but Cuaron is likely the HFPA’s choice. Then again, members who voted for Malek for actor could justify their choice by voting for “Star is Born’s” Cooper here as well.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”)
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (“The Favourite”)
Barry Jenkins (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)
Adam McKay (“Vice”)
Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie (“Green Book”)
Who will win: Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
Who should win: Barry Jenkins
Upset: Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallenlonga, Brian Currie
Lowdown: We’re torn. We think the easy pick is Davis and McNamara for “The Favourite,” but they may veer toward the “Green Book” team even after the recent revelations from Don Shirley’s family may make it too hard to pick.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Marco Beltrami (“A Quiet Place”)
Alexandre Desplat (“Isle of Dogs”)
Ludwig Göransson (“Black Panther”)
Justin Hurwitz (“First Man”)
Marc Shaiman (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
Who will win: Marc Shaiman
Who should win: Ludwig Göransson
Upset: Ludwig Göransson or Marco Beltrami
Lowdown: This is likely where the HFPA reward “Mary Poppins.” the songs may not be great, but the score is gorgeous and memorable. The music from “Black Panther” and “A Quiet Place” are also potential winners.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“All the Stars” (“Black Panther”)
“Girl in the Movies” (“Dumplin’”)
“Requiem For a Private War” (“A Private War”)
“Revelation’ (“Boy Erased”)
“Shallow” (“A Star Is Born”)
Who will win: “Shallow”
Who should win: “All the Stars”
Upset: None
Lowdown: This is where Lady Gaga gets at least her second Globe. Book it.
