Since when would a $200 million opening weekend be considered a disappointment?
Disney and Marvel Studios are looking at a $200 million opening weekend domestic gross for “Avengers: Infinity War,” but some are viewing it as a bit underwhelming. You see, it hasn’t even been two months since “Black Panther” hit theaters and racked up a $202 million three-day gross ($242 million if you count 4-days, since it was a holiday weekend). So, it’s natural that people want to compare the two films.
Many were predicting that ‘Infinity War,’ which features Black Panther and most of his supporting cast, would outpace ‘Panther,’ but apparently, that might not be the case. The Hollywood Reporter says that Disney is actually predicting anywhere from $175-200 million for ‘Avengers.” However, you can always take studio estimates as extremely low because no studio wants their film to look like its underperforming. And third parties are putting the number at $200 million.
Box office tracking for big-budget films, especially ones featuring superheroes, always seems to be a bit off. The first bit of tracking for “Black Panther” had the film at around $100 during opening weekend, but that number kept getting raised higher and higher, until it shattered everyone’s expectations. So keep in mind, we are still three weeks from the release of ‘Infinity War,’ so the tracking for this is bound to go up a little bit.
However, even if ‘Infinity War’ comes in with a $200 million opening, and is a little short of “Black Panther,” no one at Disney would be upset. There’s no denying that “Black Panther” is an absolute phenomenon and can’t really be used as a measurement tool for typical superhero films. If you want a true barometer for ‘Infinity War’s’ success, look no further than the previous ‘Avengers’ films.
“The Avengers” debuted in 2012 and set a then-record for opening weekend box office with $207 million. Three years later, “Avengers: Age of Ultron” debuted with a total of $191 million over three days. If you take those two films into consideration, then a $200 million opening is actually pretty darn good.
To be honest, “Avengers: Infinity War” has always had an uphill battle as far as box office expectations. With a cast littered with A-list talent and a lead up of almost 20 films, everyone just assumed this film would shatter all box office records. So now, with the first signs that the box office might not be record-breaking and instead just better than 99.9% of all other film openings, people will paint that as a disappointment.