There is always room for new players
Many, including this pundit, were skeptical that new distributor NEON, which had a rough start with its first few releases, could bring any award season attention to “I, Tonya” outside of an Allison Janney Best Supporting Actress nomination. Not only did NEON and partner 30 West watch Janney win gold, but saw Margot Robbie and Tatiana S. Riegel earn their first Oscar nods in the Best Actress and Editing categories as well as a slew of other guild honors. Considering NEON acquired the film after the Toronto Film Festival that’s pretty damn remarkable (granted, the film plays which helps). It just goes to show that while some players may fall away like The Weinstein Company, making a significant dent in the season often just requires quality materials, strategic media buying, an actual media budget and working the awards circuit (and a charismatic campaigner like Janney doesn’t hurt either).
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They Academy still has to like you no matter how hard you try
Sometimes the Academy is as cruel as a high school clique to a new student walking into homeroom on their first day. Frankly, that’s the only way to describe the historic snub of Brett Morgen’s “Jane” in the Documentary category. The NatGeo release won numerous accolades from the PGA, WGA, ACE (editors guild) and CAS (sound mixing) but was snubbed by the DGA and the Academy. Morgen’s peers either do not like him or do not respect him which is disheartening considering the wonderful achievement “Jane” is. The Documentary branch is full of politics and has tried to solve many of its internal issues, but something still isn’t quite right. Especially when you exclude one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year that likely would have gone all the way. This Academy is full of humans and like all of us they have issues.
The HFPA got it wrong, but they are officially a nomination force
Neither of the two Best Picture winners at the Globes, “Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards,” took the Oscar equivalent, but for the second year in a row it’s hard to ignore the power that having the telecast five days before nomination voting ends brings. There is no tangible evidence, obviously, but it’s hard to believe their nomination for Christopher Plummer in “All the Money in the World,” selection of Allison Janney over Laurie Metcalf in Best Supporting actress, the “Lady Bird” win and all those “Shape of Water” nominations didn’t influence Academy members even a tiny bit. Probably the last thing studios want is for the HFPA to have more of a say in the game. For now, at least, they’ve got it.
Squash social media backlash as soon as you can
That advice may sound obvious, but it’s honestly not that easy to execute. Let’s look at the biggest victim this year of social media fire, “Three Billboards.” It’s hard to argue that the attempted takedowns of Martin McDonagh’s drama didn’t affect its chances at winning Best Picture (it became the easiest target of all the nominees). Many Academy members ignored it (BAFTA certainly did), but enough clearly paid attention to affect the overall outcome (cough, a ton of Director’s branch members are on twitter). Could Searchlight have responded more quickly? Possibly, but what exactly were they supposed to do? These “attacks” (it’s barely film criticism and often hypocritical at that) happen so quickly these days it’s like a brush fire outside your house that you care barely contain. In hindsight, by the time Searchlight was able to find allies to respond to the criticism (“Three Billboards” was the #2 movie of the year from the AAFCA, for example) the damage had been done. There are those online who are itching to take down films in order to further their own brands. It’s a lesson for studios to take in hand next year. Be aware and be prepared.
Despite opposition Netflix keeps making Oscar strides
Let’s not gloss over the fact there is still significant verbal frustration from many members of the Academy with Netflix. They feel their peers in the Directors, Writers and some below-the line branches are paid less than what they would working for other networks or services (actors don’t seem to have this problem because Netflix creates so much content it means work for everyone). And as you might expect there are members of the Executive branch who don’t love the competition Netflix brings to the traditional release model. The good news for Netflix is that Ted Sarandos is clearly a patient man. The streaming service’s films getting their due at the Oscars was always going to be a process. It won’t happen overnight and this year was a big step for them. Not only did “Icarus” win Best Documentary (largely thanks to an impressive phase two marketing campaign), but “Mudbound” delivered the studio its first non-documentary nods for Supporting Actress (Mary J. Blige), Original Song and a historic nomination in Adapted Screenplay (Dee Rees and Virgil Williams). It also earned a Foreign Language Film nomination for “Of Body and Soul” and don’t be surprised if they become a major player in that category from now on (cough, if you spend on a FLF nominee during phase two you have a legitimate shot to win). After this step they studio and it’s consulting partners learned a ton of how to present their contenders not only to guild voters, but open Academy members. With major films from Martin Scorsese, Dan Gilroy and Paul Greengrass, among others, in the wings it wouldn’t be a shock if they crack that winning ceiling in 2019 or 2020.
Two real Best Picture contenders are ideal
It doesn’t matter whether you’re a small distributor or a massive studio. The tipping point for Oscar success seems to be two Best Picture contenders. Add a third to the mix and you’re simply not going to be able to manage expectations or give one of them the attention they deserve. Even in his craziest “I’m going to throw every possible movie against the wall and see what sticks” mode Harvey Weinstein always ended up with just two real players. That doesn’t mean a third or fourth film won’t get nominations, but it’ll arguably be left out somehow and somewhere. This season Focus and Searchlight legitimately only had two real contenders and it worked. And without stroking more fires we’re just gonna leave it at that.
Keep it out of the box when you can
Having a screening or reception is one thing, but when you can put on an event that is truly unexpected you can really make an impression with voters. This season Universal and its sister studio Focus Features killed it in that regard. The former put on a screening with an art exhibition and reception afterward with works inspired by “Get Out” that was simply stunning. The latter had a reception where models wore the actual costumes from “Phantom Thread” allowing guild and Academy members a much closer look at what turned out to be Mark Bridges’ Oscar winning work. Doing out of the box events is nothing new, A24 recreated the set of “Room” in a space near the Landmark Theaters on LA’s westside a few years ago, but it’s not done enough. And if you have a movie that opened earlier in the year, such as “Get Out,” or are trying to get attention for a relatively late arrival, like “Phantom Thread,” it can be a difference maker.
The critics group matter, but when it comes to winning Best Picture they also don’t
For the third time this decade the top film of the three “major” critic groups, the National Board of Review, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and the New York Film Critics Circle didn’t win Best Picture. Moreover, it’s intriguing that all three of those well reviewed films were released by Fox Searchlight (and one of them was “12 Years A Slave” mind you). Granted, those films earned other prizes from those groups, but not the major one. You can certainly argue the endorsement from LAFCA for “Call Me By Your Name” and from NYFCC for “Lady Bird” made members take note, but it didn’t result in a win. At least not this year.
One last request, can someone at the Academy submit the Sundance Film Festival for an honorary Oscar at the Governors Awards later this year? “Get Out” and “Call Me By Your Name” are now the 12th and 13th films that had their world premieres at the Park City institution to be nominated for Best Picture. They are also the 12th and 13th films not to win Best Picture either. We’re not sure if and when the festival will get over that hump (“Boyhood” and “Get Out” were their best shots so far), but their needs to be some formal recognition to their contributions to the industry and the Academy. Especially as almost every new American member of AMPAS seems like a Sundance veteran.
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Any other rules you’d add after this year’s Oscar season? Share your thoughts below.
