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It’s been over a week since this Oscar season came to an end. And, frankly, we’re sort of exhausted about discussing this particular season at this point. To say it’s been a slog is something of an understatement. And now, we’re already throwing out our annual New Oscars Rules for the 2026 season. A season that is already in the planning stages for every major and mini-distributor in Hollywood.
Be brave. We’ll get through this.
And the first new rule is?
It’s still all about Los Angeles
If there is anything that phase two reminded everyone of, it is how LA dominant The Academy is. Yes, 20% of the membership is now international. Yes, some members live in New York City and San Francisco. There is also a smattering in other parts of the country, but LA is it. The importance of that was obvious when AMPAS needed to extend nomination voting during the wildfires. It wasn’t just about respecting the tragedy; they needed members to vote (as did several guilds). Like any campaign, distributors need to hunt for every vote that they can, and some branches have pockets of voters outside of Southern California needed to secure a nom. But, here’s a thought. Consider redoubling your efforts in LA proper next year. The low-hanging fruit is right here. You might be surprised at the results. Assuming you have the goods, that is.
Beware, beware a January theatrical release
As always, your best shot at winning Best Picture and major categories in general is to be in theaters in October or November. The membership needs time to see your movie and stories on box office returns or reaction to the films from general moviegoers to get noticed. Moreover, a good number of reviews are needed in the ether. Ten to 12 festival breaks isn’t going to cut it. Assuming they are positive, these reviews tell members to make seeing a specific title a priority. Especially smaller movies. Taking all that into account, there are two titles this year whose release dates dinged their awards season and Oscar chances. Paramount had a lot on its hands with “Gladiator II” and “September 5.” The latter needed a November drop at worst. Instead, the Mountain pushed it to January and kept changing the date (even before the wildfires). A crowd-pleaser that should have been a word-of-mouth wonder in theaters simply never was. Paramount then pulled off something of a miracle with an impressive PGA nomination, and the screenwriters earned an Adapted Screenplay Oscar nom. All that being said, an earlier release date could have done wonders with AMPAS overall. Then there is “Hard Truths.” We’re still smarting that Marianne Jean-Baptiste was snubbed by both SAG and the Oscars. In our opinion, her performance in “Truths” is arguably one of the best of the decade by any actor. As Baker noted during his Oscar speeches, we’ve lost 1,000 screens in the U.S. Even in LA, the Cineramdome and its theaters have still not reopened. We know Bleecker Street faced pushback from theater owners for booking the movie earlier and found themselves with a January drop that, like “September 5,” kept getting pushed. But even a New York and LA limited release (something the distributor rarely does these days) in October or November would have been massive. This movie needed those New York and Los Angeles reviews! The film had other issues, such as Jean-Baptiste hiring a personal publicist with only a month to go (she shouldn’t have had to, but that’s the game) and a social media campaign that also arrived far, far too late. Sigh.
The Oscar luncheon can say goodbye
This year’s Oscar luncheon was canceled out of respect for the wildfires. Instead, an Oscar dinner was held the week of the ceremony, where the traditional class photo was taken in the Academy Museum’s main theater. Here’s a shocker: No one missed the luncheon. The photo was taken, and the nominees still got to mingle with each other and the select press who were invited. There was still a red carpet. There was still publicity for the telecast, and by having just the dinner, it was a more convenient press break than the luncheon, which is usually held weeks before the big show. Also, by having it at the Museum, it might have saved AMPAS some money (or will in the future).
Drop the PGA-DGA two-fer
We’re not sure why or how this happened. We always thought it was the writers who had an issue with the directors, but for some reason, the DGA and the PGA put their awards shows not only on the same day but at the same time this season. Both groups played chicken with each other over the February 8 date beginning last April. Conveniently, the publicity agency that handles both organizations convinced them to stagger the ceremonies. That meant the PGA started 30 minutes later than announced, and the DGA started earlier than usual. It worked this year, with the nominated filmmakers at the DGA making it to the big category reveal at the end of the PGA Awards just in time, but was it worth it? There were nominees from multiple categories (mostly television) who would have attended both ceremonies but couldn’t, and that doesn’t benefit either organization. Hey, if you want to go Friday – Saturday or Saturday – Sunday on the same weekend, that works. We even liked the PGA Awards after the Spirits on the same day last year, but can we skip this year’s mess in 2026?
The Red Carpet Era continues
It’s hard to imagine that just a little over a decade ago, studios thought red carpets were dead. You didn’t necessarily need them for movie premieres. They didn’t have the same impact as sit-down interviews or TV spots. How we all consume video on social media has utterly changed that, and it’s here to stay during awards season. Liten, it’s always about the movie but the talent for “Wicked,” “A Complete Unknown,” “The Last Showgirl,” “I’m Not Here,” “Nosferatu,” “Anora,” “Sing Sing,” “The Substance,” and, up to a point, “Emilia Perez,” got those movies across the nomination finish line with red carpet moments and sound bites. For example, the Ariana Grande hugging Fernanda Torres moment on the SBIFF red carpet (or cement sidewalk) was like something a 1940s studio publicist would cook up. If you’re movie does not have talent that is good at this stuff or, worse, unavailable during key stretches of a season, it’s likely going to hurt your chances at the big prize(s). No one should cast their movies with that in mind, but it’s now essentially part of the job for any filmmaker or actor. If they don’t embrace it, they will be miserable. If you’ve got a player for the 2026 season, get them invested and excited about it now.
If you’re gonna pick up from TIFF, hold a season
This may sound silly, but there is a huge difference between picking up a movie for awards season from Vence or from TIFF, which is usually just a week later. A Venice acquisition such as “The Brutalist,” “Maria,” “I’m Still Here,” or “Queer” is usually already coming with a ton of international media exposure and, likely, an award or two. A TIFF acquisition is usually just slightly more under the radar, with a slightly less known director and fighting for media and critic attention in a much busier and condensed festival. The last TIFF pick up that had a strong run was 2017’s “I, Tonya” which landed three nominations and won Best Supporting Actress for Alison Janney in 2018. Before that, it was 2014’s “Still Alice,” which saw Julianne Moore win her first Best Actress Oscar. It’s rare that it ever works out. Notable films that have waited? “The Hurt Locker,” “Slumdog Millionaire,” and, this year, “Sing Sing.” That’s why it was headscratching that Gia Coppola’s “The Last Showgirl” didn’t wait 10 months before heading to theaters. The Jamie Lee Curtis awards machine (stop paying Collen Camp, just cast Curtis) got both the “Halloween” legend and Pamela Anderson SAG nominations, but imagine if they had more time to prepare. There was only moderate heat out of TIFF for “Showgirl.” No major distributors wanted it for release for this awards season. What was left on the table by going this early? Ponder.
Beware of the underdog
When we first met Gints Zilbalodis, we were genuinely worried for him. The unassuming, quiet, do-everything director of “Flow” seemed too precious for a long awards season. Especially one that would find him trekking all over the globe for months on end.* Oh, Gints. We shouldn’t have underestimated you. His long list of official credits on “Flow” should have demonstrated he was in this for the long haul. Zilbalodis’ awards season journey saw him increasingly master social media (perhaps he had some assistance) and charm voters along the way. Granted, it helps that the movie intoxicated voters and had incredible word of mouth, but he’s yet another example of the “little guy (or gal)” that makes it to the mountaintop almost on a ton of genuine enthusiasm and perceived artistic innocence. He somehow took down a massive tearjerker and deserving winner in “The Wild Robot” for the Animated Feature Film Oscar. Keep a lookout a year from now. More underdogs are lurking.
*Did the Latvian government pay for all this? Sideshow and Janus do not have that sort of coin.
Now, more than ever, any great movie can be a Best Picture nominee
We’ve seen some online discourse from smart people not in the industry who think the Oscars are now too “indie.” I know, we’ve all heard it before. Strangely, they weren’t saying this last year when “Oppenheimer” won, or perhaps they didn’t realize that “Everything Everywhere All At Once” earned $143 million worldwide. But it is a common refrain when a movie perceived as being “small” takes the top prize or when someone as relatively unknown nationally as Sean Baker wins four Oscars. But for any power brokers out there who still put potential contenders in a box, this decade should have shattered those notions by now. Only the biggest fans of “The Substance” at Cannes (myself included) could have believed it would be a Best Picture nominee. Screenplay? Actress? Make-up? Production Design? Sure. A Best Picture nomination seemed like a pipe dream. Controversies aside, “Emilia Perez” is still a movie musical about a druglord who transitions and attempts to remake their life. “Nickel Boys” may have been released by a major distributor, but it’s a one-shot perspective film whose artistic ambitions make “The Tree of Life” seem as everyday as a well-shot Super Bowl commercial. Throw in recent nominees such as “The Zone of Interest,” “Barbie,” “Top Gun: Maverick” (have we forgotten people thought this could…win?), and even “Promising Young Woman,” and what constitutes a Best Picture nominee is broader than ever. On all sides of the artistic spectrum. Now, we’re not saying “Terrifier 4” is in the mix for 2026, but we’re open to it!
Do not invest awards energy in bad movies
Seems like a no-brainer, doesn’t it? If your movie or your client’s movie isn’t good, maybe pull back the reins a little? Perhaps there should be a rule. If your movie is hovering at a 60 on Metacritic, but the median grade is significantly lower, maybe you should reconsider. Is it worth flying talent to mid-tier festivals in the fall if the movie ain’t going anywhere? If the chances of talent getting nominated are close to nil? Even if they are former Oscar winners or nominees? Considering it seems like the current administration is intent on sending the economy into a recession, maybe this will all fix itself, but…
Best Casting is here
Just when you thought you were safe, there is another category to deal with. Already part of the BAFTA Awards mix, Best Casting will likely allow a film to hit a record number of nominations sooner rather than later. Will politics play out? Will the Casting Branch reward legends over great work first? Are we going to get casting directors nominated for two films in the same year? Or…three? Why are we all of a sudden afraid this won’t end well?
Reminder: Check your talent’s social media
You would have thought significant legal background checks and social media sweeps would be a given after what Searchlight Pictures went through with “The Birth of A Nation” in 2016. But, no. Perhaps it was the competitive bidding war, but even after acquiring “Emilia Perez,” the streamer did not check to see if it should “clean up” any of its new talent’s social posts. Netflix doesn’t have to worry about theatrical revenue, but for other distributors, this needs to be a priority moving forward.
Reminder: The Original Song category needs to be blown up
We’ve pointed this out for many years, and the situation keeps getting worse and worse. Fantastic songs, compositions that are in the context of a movie, recognizable and, often, popular streaming or chart hits, continue to get overlooked. This year, the two blatant omissions were “Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” and “Beautiful that Way” from “The Last Showgirl.” And, oh, even in a weak year, there were others. Even a fun bop like “Harper and Will Go West” from “Will & Harper” was overlooked for Diane Warren‘s eighth forgettable nomination in a row. What are we doing, Academy? Why is this still being allowed? The producers pulled musical performances of the nominees from the telecast for the first time in 13 years. And the nominees were so weak that no one complained! When is the Board of Governors going to try to fix this? Does the entire branch need to be blown up? Do general members need the opportunity to vote for nominees?
Reminder: The shorts categories are a mess
The good news for 2025 was that, overall, the Animated Shorts were quite good, with “In The Shadow of Cypress” perhaps the most worthy winner in some time. The documentary shorts had some standouts as well, but “The Only Girl In The Orchestra” was arguably a week winner. Live Action? Oh, my. Not only was the overall field semi-terrible, but the winner, “I Am Not A Robot,” was not worthy of an Oscar in any category. We have only anecdotal evidence, but it appears the number of members who participated in all aspects of the voting process this year was less than in years past. That’s not good. We’re not sure how AMPAS has a mechanism to fix this moving forward, but it needs to try.
Now, who’s ready for Emmy Season? Wait, hold on. Why are you walking out the door…
