The Golden Globes happened Sunday night, and there are four takeaways that probably mean something for an event where no one associated is any sort of guild or AMPAS adjacent voter. I mean, assuming you care.
…but note, a version of this commentary first appeared in The Breakdown Newsletter. Sign up now to get awards and industry commentary first. Exclusive content, just twice a week…
First, the three wins for “The Brutalist” are really gonna help its per-screen box office over the next few weeks more than anything else (it doesn’t go wide until January 24). It’s already been doing incredibly well on eight screens, but this will be a massive boost. Second, the wins for Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres are great PR, but both actresses could be snubbed for Oscar nominations on the 17th. That’s what happens with the most competitive Best Actress race this century. Prepare yourselves just in case. Third, Nikki Glasser was a fantastic host with the best opening monologue since the top-tier runs from Tina Fey and Amy Poehler back in the day (the rest of the show production was a mess, including the terrible close-up framing of the actors Seth Rogen rightly called out as “unelegant”). Last but not least, the only major category wins that are very likely to duplicate at the Oscars are Kieran Culkin in Supporting Actor and, maybe, Adrien Brody in Best Actor (although someone at A24 needs to have a convo about him cutting down on the rambling with his future acceptance speeches). Everything else? Very, very much in play.
Oh, except on the TV side, where you can expect “Hacks,” “Shogun,” and “Baby Reindeer” to dominate the upcoming guild awards for the next six weeks. Something we’ve already seen with the DGA Awards television nominations earlier today.
Besides “The Brutalist,” the other big “winner” of the night was “Emilia Perez.” Jacques Audiard’s polarizing (yes, still) musical took home four major prizes: Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldana, Film Not in the English Language, Original Song, and Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy. Make no mistake, Netflix has been down this road with a major contender at the Globes before, however. Three years ago, Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” took home Motion Picture – Drama, Best Director and Supporting Actor for Kodi Smit-McPhee at the Globes. Only Campion prevailed at the Oscars.
Notably, the streamer also went into the 2019 Academy Award ceremony with Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma” securing 10 nominations, including one each in the four other key categories you need to win (Directing, Acting, Screenplay, and Editing). It also was coming off a big win at the BAFTA Awards. Despite SAG Awards snubs for “Roma,” the belief of many was that PGA Award winner “Green Book” wouldn’t seal the deal and fall short of the crown.
Oops.
Those films, unfortunately, had powerful headwinds going against them. Not only were they not “beloved” (heads up, members vote with their hearts), but there was a significant faction of members who would simply not vote for a Netflix film for a variety of reasons (notably theatrical release). An irony, as many of these same members took Netflix money for their projects during what was the height of Peak TV. Those members still exist, but “Emilia Perez” may be viewed through a radically different prism just a few years later. Especially overseas. And remember, “Perez” practically swept the European Film Awards last month. The Europeans have adored it since Cannes.
Listen, “Perez” is going to get nominated, and it likely will get all the key nominations a contender needs to win Best Picture, including Director, Editing, multiple Acting nominations, and Adapted Screenplay. The latter is a dicey one, but we’re going to assume it makes it. Based on the Oscar shortlists, it’s also looking to land at least four additional nominations (maybe more). But let’s circle back on those global members, shall we?
International members of the Academy may only make up 20% of eligible voters, but that’s significant in a ranked voting system such as Best Picture. Moreover, most of them do not view “Emilia” as a Netflix “film.” Unlike “Roma” or “Power,” the streamer only has U.S., Canadian, and U.K. rights. To International AMPAS members, it’s a movie they could see at their local multiplex. Moreover, it hasn’t even dropped yet in Australia, Mexico, Brazil or Italy. Those markets are waiting for Golden Globe wins and Oscar nominations before arriving in theaters (and those distributors can thank Netflix’s awards team and budget for pumping up their grosses).
The point remains, that to many AMPAS voters, the Cannes Film Festival acquisition is not a Netflix film, at least not in their eyes. That may eventually frustrate the powers that be at the streamer, especially considering their marketing power has propelled it across social media and in the states. More importantly, though, that distinction could help the movie triumph over naysayers and a backlash that has percolated in some Latin and U.S. LGBTQ+ media. Criticisms that have barely impacted broader industry publications (well, at least not yet). Moreover, those in the states who love “Perez” love it. There is passion. A genuine passion a Netflix “awards” film has not experienced from guild and AMPAS members to date (a distinction compared to the critical love for Netflix contenders such as “Marriage Story,” “May December,” and “Power”). Do you know another movie released by a streamer that the industry didn’t consider a “streamer movie” and was adored?
“CODA.”
Of course, things could flip. Missing out on a SAG Ensemble nomination tomorrow would not be ideal. But SAG voters tend to love Netflix projects because they watch a lot of the service, and those massive content spends have employed many of them over the years. In that context, that big a snub would be surprising. But it’s possible. If it crack the ensemble field? Watch out.
In a scenario that would have been unthinkable after “Anora’s” triumph in Cannes, “Perez” may be the streamer’s best chance at a Best Picture win since it got it the awards game less than a decade ago. Even if it would only be the second non-English language movie to take the prize after “Parasite” in 2020. Does that mean “Anora,” “Conclave,” “The Brutalist,” “Wicked,” or “A Complete Unknown” can’t take Oscar’s biggest prize? Not at all. There is a long way to go, but the Academy Award shortlists and the BAFTA Longlists mentions are notable tea leaves. There is affection for the movie across many different branches on both sides of the Atlantic. And that means this unconventional musical may give Netflix its best shot at winning to date.
Maybe.
