Within 24 hours, the Toronto International Film Festival’s blue carpet will be formally unveiled. Hundreds of locals will pack King Street for a chance to see or scream at a recognizable star of one movie after another. And new films such as the buzzworthy “I Play Rocky” will attempt to win the TIFF People’s Choice Award all in hopes of just gaining Oscar voters’ attention. But, as has been the case for almost two decades, a substantial number of AMPAS members have already started the race to Hollywood’s biggest night. A race that always bubbles in Sundance, percolates in Cannes, unfurls in Venice, but connects in Telluride. And once again, the Colorado festival was a haven for countless Academy voters who will spread the buzz on one film or another to their fellow members back in Los Angeles or around the world. But if you’re reading this, you probably knew that already.
2026 saw several Best Picture contenders solidify their standing. After wowing Venice, Martin McDonagh’s “Wild Horse Nine” became the hands-down favorite film of almost every attendee you spoke to at Telluride. Something would have to go very wrong for the Searchlight Pictures release not to make the Best Picture 10, for John Malkovich not to earn a Best Actor nomination, or for co-star Sam Rockwell to miss out on another Supporting Actor nod. McDonagh earning another Original Screenplay seems like a lock, while he’ll battle to crack a super competitive Best Director field. Editing, Casting, and Costumes are also in the mix, while Original Score, Cinematography, and Mariana di Girolamo have a shot at Supporting Actress. We still can’t believe the New York Film Festival passed, considering we’ve seen a few of their selections which we’d categorize as “quesitonable” already. Shockingly, they have never invited a McDonagh film to screen. “Wild” indeed.
Another movie that destroyed at Telluride was the Javis’ “La Bola Negra,” which won Best Director at Cannes. Based on member reactions, the Netflix acquisition is not only close to a lock for a Best Picture nom, but could be their first winner. It’s still a reach with monsters like “The Odyssey,” “Dune Part Three,” “Digger,” and “Project Hail Mary” in the mix, but the streamer has never had a tearjerker like this one. Never. And you could argue it played even better with the Telluride faithful than it did at Cannes.
Another Cannes breakout, Jordan Firstman’s “Club Kid,” was a big Telluride favorite. At worst, A24 knows this is an Original Screenplay Oscar contender and Spirit and Gotham Awards mainstay. At best, it earns a passionate enough fanbase to crack the Best Picture field. Anything inbetween? Utter gravy.
A24’s other major player in the mountains was “The Debut.” Jesse Eisenberg’s follow-up to “A Real Pain” had its world premiere at Telluride and features a jaw-dropping performance from Julianne Moore, who immediately became the Best Actress frontrunner. Paul Giamatti will contend in a super-competitive Supporting Actor race, and Eisenberg will be in the mix for Original Screenplay and Original Song. We also think it’s the mini-major’s best shot at a Best Picture nomination (they also have Olivia Wilde’s “The Invite”). And it was interesting how competing studios wanted to pigeonhole “The Debut” as just an Oscar play for Moore. Yes, the race for the 10 is that competitive this season. So much so that this subtle game – at least with the press – has already started.
Speaking of wanting to pigeonhole, Simon Stone’s “Elsinore” got thrown into an Andrew Scott is a Best Actor frontrunner an that’s it when it was arguably the biggest tearjerker besides “La Bola Negra.” I dunno, when a weepy Oprah Winfrey (honorary Oscar winner and influential AMPAS member) wants to hug Scott after seeing it like she’s been hit by an emotional truck and every studio in town wanted to acquire it (including a major streamer), it seems like it’s a significant Best Picture player to me. Oh, and watch out for Original Score, Costumes, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Supporting Actress for Billie Piper too (Focus needs to make this a priority).
Bleecker Street has a little gem on their hands with Mike Leigh’s “Tender Loving Care,” which was almost universally adored. More importantly, “Widow’s Bay” standout and likely Emmy winner Kate O’Flynn earned massive shout-outs and could absolutely crack the also crazy competitive Supporting Actress circle. The fact that she wasn’t on hand was unfortunate. The 83-year-old Leigh, who can’t travel at the moment due to his health, could also earn a sixth Original Screenplay nomination.
On the international side, Paweł Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland” played very well, while Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” probably had a more muted response than U.S. distributor Neon expected. That Palm d’Or winner may need European and International voters to carry it into the Best Picture 10. We’re fans of Andrey Zvyagintsev’s “Minatour,” another Cannes world premiere that screened at Telluride, but couldn’t find many attendees who were able to fit it into their schedules. Designate that MUBI drama with an incomplete grade in a year when a slew of fantastic films will get snubbed for an International Film nomination.
It didn’t work for us overall, but Guy Nattiv’s “The Liberation” earned mostly positive reviews, and it was hard for anyone to dismiss the impressive performances of Carrie Coon or Bella Ramsey. Can either make a dent with the Acting branch? A long way to go, but it might be a tough climb considering the competition.
Speaking of climbing, Apple TV brought Jennifer Peedom’s “Tenzing” with Tom Hiddleston, Willem Dafoe and Genden Phuntsok. If enough Music Branch members screen it, the history-breaking Mount Everest movie could find Rebekka Karijord’s incredible score in the mix. Stefan Duscio’s Cinematography is stellar, but that branch rarely rewards these types of shoots, no matter how arduous the process was.
Netflix screened Danny Boyle’s “Ink,” another Venice transplant, which earned a so-so response from members we spoke with, but Guy Pearce, Jack O’Connell, and Claire Foy had their fans. The streamer also had Léa Seydoux on hand for “Gentle Monster” (she was also there for another Cannes film, “The Unknown”), but it didn’t seem to break through. Smaller venues didn’t help, but like Sony Classics and John Tuturro with “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York,” its one of those contenders the distributor will be pushing till the very end. An awards worthy Rami Malek was in town for Ira Sachs’ “The Man I Love,” but that moving drama still doesn’t have a U.S. distributor yet (a story that needs investigation). Still, like “Monster,” we personally couldn’t find any attendees who’d seen it on the ground. Then again, lots of competition for just three to four days of screenings.
As for the substantial documentary slate, we’re the wrong pundit to ask. But Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim’s “You Can See Everything,” which centers on Elizabeth Holmes and her husband Billy Evans, might find fans within that branch even if it may not be “traditional” enough. If it’s a big enough hit, perhaps the doors will open to more. Documentary voters are often the harded to guage among AMPAS members.
Thousands of industry and media are now headed to Toronto, for the annual public relations spotlight for both consumer and awards voters. But, as it has been for most of this decade, the real campaign started with real Oscar voters in a pretty Colorado town. Just 19 weeks until nominations are announced on January 21, 2027.
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