This commentary originally appeared in The Breakdown Newsletter. You can subscribe for exclusive industry and awards season analysis here. Oh, and it’s twice a week and free.
What a last weekend before the Academy Awards. On Saturday, indie darling “Anora” dominated the 2025 Film Independent Spirit Awards taking three trophies including Best Feature, Best Director, Sean Baker, and Lead Performance, Mikey Madison. On Sunday, it appeared the “Anora” pre-Oscars coronation would be complete. Baker won the DGA two weeks ago and the NEON release secured the PGA Award about 90 minutes later. SAG would be the icing on the cake. But, no, like BAFTA voters, the Screen Actors Guild membership had other ideas.
The SAG ceremony started predictably, with “A Real Pain’s” Kieran Culkin continuing his Da’Vine Joy Randolph-esque run in the Supporting Actor category. And the night saw “Shogun” win every award it possibly could. Sure, Martin Short taking Male Actor in a Comedy Series for “Only Murders in The Building” was a surprise, but Jessica Gunning for “Baby Reindeer”? Jean Smart for “Hacks”? Zoe Saldana for Female Actor in a Supporting Role? Colin Farrell for “The Penguin”? These were all wins that lined up with the Emmy Awards or other guild honors over the past five months. Basically, predictable.
READ MORE: “Conclave” and “Shogun” big winners at 2025 SAG Awards
And then “Murders” won Comedy Series. A genuine shock to anyone in the television awards game. If anyone was beating “The Bear” or “Hacks” it was likely “Abbott Elementary.” That was the first real sign the night might take a turn. Listen, SAG voters are their own beast. They have demonstrated it many times over the years. As we joked on social media, “A Complete Unknown’s” Timothee Chalamet did not expect to win Male Actor in a Motion Picture. Not with that BRAT-inspired colored shirt.
And then, after five full days of Mikey Madison earning major Oscars hype during peak SAG voting, Demi Moore’s peers rewarded “The Substance” star with her first SAG Award instead. These wins had this longtime pundit thinking “A Complete Unknown” or “Wicked” could surprise when Ensemble for a Motion Picture was announced. Instead, it was, once again, the BAFTA winner, “Conclave” taking the top prize. And “Anora,” goes home empty-handed.
Does this mean we have a genuine Best Picture race on our hands? Well, maybe.
This exact scenario played out seven years ago in a battle of dueling Searchlight Films releases. “The Shape of Water” took the DGA and the PGA. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” won BAFTA and the SAG Ensemble honor. “Shape of Water” won Best Picture. “Shape” won both PGA and Oscar, which vote on preferential ballots. BAFTA, famously, does not.
But, wait. There’s more. “Three Billboards” director Martin McDonagh was snubbed by The Academy’s Director’s Branch. “Concalve’s” Edward Berger was snubbed by was also snubbed by The Academy’s Director’s Branch. Both DGA winners Guillermo del Toro and Sean Baker made the cut. That’s a bit too much of a coincidence for anyone rooting for “Conclave.”
Granted, there are some differences. “Three Billboards” won two acting prizes and “Conclave” is not expecting any acting prizes outside of a potential shocking (although deserved) Ralph Fiennes win. Madison still has a shot for Best Actress and both “Conclave” and “Anora” are Adapted and Original Screenplay frontrunners. While nominated, neither “Billboards” nor “Water” won Screenplay Oscars. Both “Three Billboards” and “Shape of Water” were loved by multiple branches earning 7 and 13 nominations, respectively. “Anora” has just six and “Conclave” has eight. So, a little less love than their predecessors. “Conclave’s” Nick Emerson, who took the BAFTA, is considered the frontrunner for Best Editing. Both “Shape” and “Billboards” lots out in that category to “Dunkirk.”
O.K., we get it – you can get lost in the weeds with the comparisons, but there is one more you may hear of in the days ahead. In 1999, “Shakespeare in Love” pulled off what was thought to be an epic awards season comeback over Steven Spielberg’s “Saving Private Ryan” after the latter took DGA and PGA and the John Madden romantic comedy won BAFTA and SAG. That was a much different time with just a five-nominee field and both movies landing a ton of nominations. Moreover, Gwyneth Paltrow and Judi Dench were long-predicted acting winners for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. The SAG Awards also took place almost 10 days before the Oscar voting deadline in 1999. A major boost for “Shakespeare” at the time. This year? AMPAS voting ended last Tuesday. But, if you’re looking for a BAFTA and SAG comeback, sure, you can point there as well. Maybe.
Can “Conclave” win Best Picture with just Adapted Screenplay and Editing? Sure. “Argo” is right there. Could “Anora” have a big night taking four categories? You bet. Could another movie surprise at the end of the ceremony? Now that would be highly unlikely.
There will be suspense on Sunday though which is heaven to telecast producers Raj Kapoor and Katy Mullan and ABC who are looking for anything beyond the just officially announced and not-so-secretive “Wicked” medley to get people to tune in. We are still gobsmacked that our fav RAYE (some of us were fans years ago), LISA from Blackpink, and Doja Cat are performing at this year’s Oscars. Moreover, it’s obvious they are going to perform at least a snippet of their recent release “Born Again.” This is a track RAYE co-wrote and originally recorded over three years ago before it was killed by her former record company, a deal she famously escaped from which inspired her six-Brit Award-winning album “My 21st Century Blues.” We’re not saying we used to run every day to the unreleased RAYE version of his track two years ago, but we’re not not saying it either. The entertainment business never fails to surprise. Oh, yeah and Ariana and Cynthia are doing a “Wicked” melody to kick off the show. And if the Music Branch is mad about the Original Song nominees not being performed maybe they should fix their mess and nominate better songs.
Look for our final Oscars predictions on The Playlist on Thursday.
