World Keeps Turning And The Oscars Can Barely Keep Up [Contender Countdown]

Before we get into this let’s make one thing absolutely clear. Everything that has transpired regarding the floodgates of victims coming forward about sexual harassment, abuse or rape with specific men in the entertainment industry is something that needed to happen.  The revelations likely won’t end any time soon and, hopefully, it leads to a better work and life environment for everyone who is even adjacent to the Hollywood machine (pretty much anyone you know who lives in the 323/818/310). This is long over due.  These acts simply shouldn’t be happening in the workplace in 2017 no matter what profession you chose.

That being said, and in the most infinitesimal way compared to the greater scheme of things, not only has it made Hollywood pay attention, but like the swirling Mueller indictments and even the latest revisionist history of the “civil war” being played out in the press, its all having an affect on awards season. Consciously and subconsciously.

(And again, emphasis on “infinitesimal.”)

In the back of their minds you have to imagine the Academy (membership) are just hoping for one year where it can reward the greatest films and performances  without the real world crashing the party.  They no longer live in that world and, honestly, haven’t for some time.  The middle part of the past decade should go down as the “Hollywood looking itself in the mirror” era and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is pretty much at the top of that food chain whether it wants to be or not (remember AMPAS is a professional organization, but not a guild). There was #OscarsSoWhite, the “Birth of a Nation” scandal, the Muslim ban and now a new era of #MeToo. AMPAS wisely and quickly kicked Harvey Weinstein out of the Academy, but is two-time winner Kevin Spacey next? Based on the news this morning will “almost” Oscar producer Brett Ratner join him? Will the media and empowered voices such as Rose McGowan focus on previous allegations against Woody Allen and Roman Polanski, among others, as the season gets into full swing? Considering it seems like there is at least one new famous face having their actions put under the public microscope every day or so it would be shocking if it wasn’t.

Like the presidential election last year (which anyone in Oscar planning will tell you delayed a ton of campaigning), this isn’t a story that’s going away. Sony Pictures has to deal with the Spacey ramifications for its potential Oscar player “All The Money In the World,” a film that was pushing Spacey as a legit Best Supporting Actor contender and one where the studio believes Michelle Williams could truly surprise in the Best Actress race. The film is still closing AFI Fest and it will be curious to see how Sony moves forward after Netflix effectively ended “House of Cards” a season early over a potentially larger Spacey scandal developing. Ponder, pt. 1.

Meanwhile, the latest developments in the Muller investigation has put Steven Spielberg’s “The Post” right back in the Best Picture race. So much so that 20th Century Fox finally released the first image from the movie (see above) a day after the first jaw-dropping indictments were revealed (Want to shut up Trump on twitter? Muller figured out how to for over seven hours). The quality of the movie is being debated and buzzed about by many who have not seen it, but remember this: before the election last year there were few who had seen “Hidden Figures” that believed it was a slam dunk Best Picture nominee. The results of the presidential race changed all that (as well as the box office) and the movie was a lock the day nominations came out. Can we see something similar occurring with “The Post”? Will continuing indictments cast the film is a different light? Ponder, pt. 2.

The biggest beneficiary of all these events may be none other than Patty Jenkins’ “Wonder Woman.” Talk to consultants in the space who work for studios other than its distributor, Warner Bros., and most of them are considering it as a very serious player for a nod. Is a SAG Ensemble nomination possible? Could Gal Gadot crack the Best Actress in a Drama category? Could Jenkins surprise with a DGA nod? Ponder, pt. 3.

Yes, it’s November 1st and the Oscar race is full of questions that simply can’t be answered. The political and cultural landscape seems to change every few dats. Where America and Hollywood’s collective consciousness is this week may not be where they are in mid-December let alone the first week of January. Moreover, the Academy has changed enough (note: “enough” instead of “so much”) that they are frankly more comfortable about making statements than anytime  in recent Oscar history (hello “The Salesman” for the Foreign Language Film win). And if you want to debate the superhero pic’s potential inclusion versus more traditional prestige fare, I’ll surely take a “Wonder Woman” Best Picture nomination over those awarded to “Finding Neverland,” “Chocolat,” “Philomena,” “American Sniper” or even “American Beauty” (but I’ve been off that island from the beginning).

If the past three years and past few months have shown us, anything and everything can happen. Lots to ponder.

Here’s your latest Contender Countdown.

Oct. 17, 2017

1. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Still feeling it will be the consensus pick, but “Shape,” “Dunkirk” and “The Post” still very much in play.

2. “The Post”
We have an official still. Will the movie live up or down to the advance buzz?

3. “The Shape of Water”
It might have the “emotional” vote. It might not.

4. “Dunkirk”
A Mark Rylance nomination would be huge for its chances to win Best Picture (statistically at least).

5. “Get Out”
Just Jordan Peele potentially sneaking into the Best Director race.

6. “Call Me By Your Name”
Safe for a nomination, but there will be a second wave of silly backlash closer to release. Watch for it.

7. “The Florida Project”
Finding a lot of fans in the industry and Academy. Should get in, but what other nominations can A24 pull off? Is Brooklyn Prince in the mix?

8. “Wonder Woman”
Beyond timely. Warner Bros. knows it and smartly isn’t pressing the issue by simply letting the movie speak for itself. This placement might be too high, but for a Nov. 1 snapshot of the field it’s pretty accurate.

9. “Darkest Hour”
As other films fade “Darkest” may find a way to crack the nomination field or it’s just the Gary Oldman show.

10. “Last Flag Flying”
Needs a strong per screen this weekend and hope even if it does that “Lady Bird” doesn’t somehow steal its limited release thunder.

Almost there
(In alphabetical order)

“All the Money In the World”
If Spacey’s actions destroy a chance for Michelle Williams to get her Oscar due…lord.

“The Big Sick”
As more contenders fall…still sticking around with a shot to pounce.

“Blade Runner 2049”
Is the box office tale turning it into just a play for below the line and Denis Villeneuve for Best Director now?

“Lady Bird”
Laurie Metcalf is your frontrunner for Best Supporting actress.  Anyone who thinks Allison Janney is beating her is delusional (and we love us some Ms. Allison Janney).

“Mudbound”
In theory it should be a nominee and Netflix is doing everything they can to make it one. We’ll see.

“Phantom Thread”
Is this the stealth Best Picture nominee we’ve been waiting for?

Current predictions (updated as of Oct. 17):

Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Director
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay

This story was updated the morning of Nov. 1 after posting to reflect the allegations against Brett Ratner.