When the Venice Film Festival kicks off next Wednesday it will signal the unofficial start of the 2017-2018 awards season. Yes, it’s that time again. It feels like the improbable Best Picture win by “Moonlight” over “La La Land” was just yesterday, doesn’t it? Perhaps it’s because there has been so little to celebrate in the world in the months since. Well, except for some good movies, that is.
We’ve already had two major contenders released in theaters that will be players throughout the campaign, Christopher Nolan’s “Dunkirk” and Jordan Peele’s “Get Out.” And “The Big Sick,” “Logan,” “The Beguiled,” “Okja,” “Detroit,” “Wonder Woman” and “War for the Planet of the Apes” will each earn some attention in a number of different categories.
Sundance and Cannes have also provided us “Call Me By Your Name” (more on this one later), “The Florida Project” (ditto), “Mudbound,” “The Meyerowitz Stories,” “Killing of a Sacred Deer,” “In the Fade” (hello Diane Kruger) and “You Were Never Really Here.” And, as always, there are a number of fall releases we’re very wary of including such as “Molly’s Game” (simply don’t buy that it’s an awards movie), “The Snowman” (great director, but are we reading to much into a Michael Fassbender thriller?), “The Mountain Between Us” (ummm) and “The Disaster Artist” (might be fantastic, but…).
Obviously, there are other films that will be part of the game including the still “Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project” (Daniel Day-Lewis is ready to go out in a blaze of glory), George Clooney’s “Suburbicon” (it’s darker than that trailer, right?), “Battle of the Sexes” (timely), “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Hostiles” (anybody want to distribute a Christian Bale movie?), “Thank You For Your Service” (Miles Teller comeback?) “Victoria and Abdul” (never count out Dame Judi Dench) and “Murder on the Orient Express” (maybe). And then there’s always the question whether “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” can earn a nomination beyond the Visual Effects and Sound categories (dare to dream?).
Keep all that in mind we’ve got a quick primer for you as the season gets underway. These are the 13 movies that have not been released in theaters yet, that may or may not be major players this fall. And pay close attention because a few of them may find ways to lurk in the background for most of the season and pounce with a surprise guild or critics’ group honor when you least expect them to.
“The Darkest Hour”
Studio: Focus Features
Easiest Picks: Best Actor (Gary Oldman), Best Picture
Toughest Battle: Best Director (Joe Wright)
Festival premiere: Telluride
Release date: Nov. 22
What to look for: Whether it’s about the entire movie or just Oldman’s performance. Wright has a Best Picture nominee on his resume (“Atonement”) and another that would have made the cut if there were more than five nominees that year (“Pride & Prejudice”). He’s coming off the dreadful misfire “Pan” though and the question is whether he can regain the visionary touch he’s shown in most of his other films for another retelling of Winston Churchill’s historic achievement. There’s also the question whether the supporting performances from Lily James, Ben Mendelsohn (as King George VI) and Kristin Scott Thomas (as Clementine Churchill) are awards players as well.
“Wonder Wheel”
Studio: Amazon Studios
Easiest Picks: Best Actress (Kate Winslet), Original Screenplay (Woody Allen)
Toughest Battle: Best Picture, Best Director (Woody Allen), Best Actor (Justin Timberlake)
Festival premiere: New York Film Festival
Release date: Dec. 1
What to look for: The buzz over Kate Winslet‘s performance seems to be growing by the day. The question won’t be about the reaction from the critics and audience at NYFF. The question will be how the media treat Allen in an increasingly contentious environment for entertainment figures battling alleged allegations for one thing or another. This issue for Allen reared its head during “Blue Jasmine,” but that didn’t stop Cate Blanchett from winning her second Oscar. That was also four years ago and the world is a much different place. Will the campaign celebrate the film’s achievements or be forced to battle Allen’s demons under an increased Oscar spotlight? We’re about to find out.
“Downsizing”
Studio: Paramount Pictures
Easiest Pick: Best Picture, Best Director (Alexander Payne), Best Original Screenplay
Toughest battle: Best Actor (Matt Damon)
Festival premiere: Venice
Release date: Dec. 22
What to look for: The fact Payne recently said publicly “It’s not for everybody” must make the marketing team at Paramount want to bang their heads into a wall, but the studio clearly believes in it after teasing ten minutes at CinemaCon this spring, booking Venice/Telluride/Toronto, and then waiting to release in the Christmas holiday window. You don’t set yourself up for that unless you think you’ve got the goods (or at least enough of it). Having seen the selected footage, I can attest it was the most visionary thing Payne has done to date. The question is whether the rest of the movie can live up to that incredible sequence. Moreover, is Damon a Best Actor contender for this picture or another Paramount release, “Suburbicon”?
“The Shape of Water”
Studio: Fox Searchlight
Easiest Pick: Best Picture, Director (Guillermo del Toro), Best Original Screenplay, Best Production Design, Best Cinematography, Best Original Score
Toughest Battle: Best Actress (Sally Hawkins), Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer)
Festival premiere: Venice
Release date: Dec. 8
What to look for: We don’t want to overhype it, but those that have seen the film are raving and Del Toro may have given Fox Searchlight yet another chance this decade as a Best Picture winner. If it wins the TIFF Audience Award watch out.
“Call Me By Your Name”
Studio: Sony Pictures Classics
Easiest Pick: Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet)
Toughest Battle: Best Picture, Best Director (Luca Guadagnino)
Festival premiere: Sundance
Release date: Nov. 24
What to look for: Currently the most critically acclaimed movie of the year on Metacritic, the question is whether “Call Me By Your Name” can translate that rapturous reception at Sundance and Berlin into true awards passion. Even after the breakthrough of “Moonlight” you can hear the skepticism and reaction from “liberal” straight men who simply don’t get the adoration. We’re not saying it has the massive potential to be another “Carol” but we’re not not saying it either (and there is no movie we’re rooting for more). If it gets the cold shoulder at TIFF and NYFF, Sony Pictures Classics may be in trouble regarding its awards prospects (we’re assuming it’s not at Telluride).