This has been one of the most dramatic awards season in recent memory. Think about that for a moment. Just two years ago the Academy received a social media slap in the face as #OscarsSoWhite pushed the organization to make dramatic changes to its membership. The 2017 season was flipped upside down when presumptive frontrunner “Birth of a Nation” became an also-ran because of a sexual assault conviction that somehow was forgotten at the film’s Sundance premiere, but came roaring back to bite filmmaker Nate Parker eight months later. That same season saw Hollywood blown away by Trump’s election and the president of the Academy, Cheryl Boone Isaacs, arguably making the most political speech in the history of the position as nominees for the Foreign Language Film and Documentary categories potentially blocked from entry in the country by the Trump adminstration’s travel ban. That was nothing compared to the fire that burned through the industry over the past five months, however. Nothing.
Starting in September, the #MeToo movement brought long sought justice to perennial Oscar guru Harvey Weinstein; saw two-time winner Kevin Spacey recast in a movie he was a potential Best Supporting Actor nominee in and banished from Hollywood; found Christopher Plummer earned a nomination after replacing Spacey in said film (with just a week’s notice and 10 days to shoot it); made Woody Allen as toxic an association for multiple actors as Weinstein; brought down the head of Amazon Studios after Oscar success with “Manchester by the Sea” the previous February; sas Best Actor contender James Franco accused of sexual harassment by a number of women; and too many other individual scandals to mention. At times Hollywood seemed like it was literally on fire as another story broke daily and for a good chunk of November, hourly. It was a flame that spread to other industries and brought down careers in television, the fashion industry, tech and even elected officials in Washington (except the top one, of course). The Golden Globes became a key moment for the movement as women wore black and male supporters fashioned #TimesUp pins. The women of the movement graced the cover of TIME as Persons of the Year. And it all began with Harvey and is nowhere near over. Did it influence the Oscar nominations? Possibly. Will it influence the winners of the 90th Academy Awards? We’re not so sure, but we can guarantee it will affect the films that vie for Oscar in the years to come.
In this context and era it’s a trifle, but the Academy Awards are the granddaddy of awards shows and 90 years is an incredible achievement (and while ABC has been hyping host Jimmy Kimmel and a potential repeat of last year’s Best Picture mixup we hear the actual show is 30 minutes longer to allow the Academy to celebrate this historic moment). Picking the winners is often a crapshoot. embers of the Academy are much more cinephile than they were at the turn of the century, but they still look at films in a different context than critics or the media. It doesn’t mean they don’t have taste, it just means they recognize things because of their skills and professions that press who have only visited film sets can’t decipher.
The good news is that we know some things about what the Academy likes and what they don’t. “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Phantom Thread” and even “Darkest Hour” earned praise from almost every branch it could. Others have major support in key branches such as “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Call Me By Your Name” and “Dunkirk.” And, as always, never bet against a Pixar film if you don’t have to.
Keeping all that in mind, let’s get too it and start predicting some winners, shall we?
BEST PICTURE
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Phantom Thread”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who will win: “The Shape of Water”
Who should win: “Call Me By Your Name”
Upset potential: “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” or “Get Out”
Here’s the deal: I spent a good amount of time going over the historical trends any potential winner might break earlier this week, but this is still one pick I’m absolutely not comfortable with it. My gut says “Three Billboards” and has since late October, but I’m not convinced enough voters ignored the backlash to give it the first place votes it needs to win outright. Does that mean it’s the second or third pick from voters and wins via the preferential balloting system? Again, I’m not sure that’s possible. The two glaring red flags for “Get Out” begin with the almost utter lack of BAFTA support (no Best Film or Best Director nominations, just two nods and no trophies) and the fact no film with less than five nominations has won in 84 years. That’s Eighty. Four. Years. “Shape of Water” is the film with the most nominations, is disliked the least (yes, that’s matters) and has passionate support from older voters (especially women). And out of all three top contenders, it likely gets more second and third place votes than any other film. That may sound like a backhanded “win,” but if it takes the title “Shape of Water” is an absolutely a worthy winner and don’t you forget it either.
DIRECTING
Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Phantom Thread”
Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Who will win: Guillermo del Toro
Who should win: Guillermo del Toro
Upset potential: Christopher Nolan or Jordan Peele
Here’s the deal: Maybe Christopher Nolan surprises, but that would be a major shock at this point. Instead, look for Guillermo del Toro to become the third member of the “Three Amigo” filmmakers to win Oscar’s Best Director prize because when it’s right, it’s right.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Who will win: Gary Oldman
Who should win: Gary Oldman
Upset potential: Timothée Chalamet
Here’s the deal: If “Phantom Thread” had come out months earlier perhaps Daniel Day-Lewis would have given him a run for his money, but at this point, Gary Oldman is honestly one of the biggest locks of the night. And it’s about time.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Who will win: Frances McDormand
Who should win: Frances McDormand or Sally Hawkins
Upset potential: Saoirse Ronan or Sally Hawkins
Here’s the deal: Perhaps the love for the “Shape of Water” is so strong it catapults Sally Hawkins into the winner’s circle or Saoirse Ronan is the one “Lady Bird” nomination that gives that indie hit some Oscar love. Frankly, while nice to daydream over both of those scenarios are highly unlikely. Frances McDormand has taken every major televised honor she’s been up for this season and the Academy is clearly ready to induct her into the two-time winner club.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All The Money In The World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who will win: Sam Rockwell
Who should win: Sam Rockwell or Willem Dafoe
Upset potential: Willem Dafoe
Here’s the deal: Speak to anyone who has canvassed Academy members either formally or not and they will tell you to a member that Sam Rockwell is winning this category, hand’s down. It’s that simple.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Who will win: Allison Janney
Who should win: Laurie Metcalf
Upset potential: Laurie Metcalf
Here’s the deal: Does Laurie Metcalf have a puncher’s chance? Absolutely. Will it be hard to overcome Allison Janney who has charmed voters at one event after another (often as a presenter) this season? And it Janney who has worked more consistently in Hollywood on television than Metcalf has this century (a cough, there’s crossover in AMPAS and the Television Academy people)? Yes, yes, it will. We’re still holding out hope, but the tea leaves predict Janney continues her winning streak and nabs the biggest prize of all.
EDITING
Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos, “Baby Driver”
Lee Smith, “Dunkirk”
Tatiana S. Riegel, “I, Tonya”
John Gregory, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Sidney Wolinsky, “The Shape of Water”
Who will win: Lee Smith, “Dunkirk”
Who should win: Lee Smith, “Dunkirk”
Upset potential: Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos, “Baby Driver”
Here’s the deal: The Academy tends to, but not always, pick the worthiest nominee in this category. Sometimes that lines up with the Best Picture winner, but this decade only “Argo” won both Oscars. In that context the race is between “Dunkirk” and “Baby Driver” and the membership will likely go with the more serious pick in Christopher Nolan’s WWII thriller.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins, “Blade Runner 2049”
Bruno Delbonnel, “Darkest Hour”
Dan Laustsen, “The Shape of Water”
Rachel Morrison, “Mudbound”
Hoyte van Hoytema, “Dunkirk”
Who will win: Roger Deakins,”Blade Runner 2049″
Who should win: Roger Deakins, “Blade Runner 2049”
Upset potential: Rachel Morrison, “Mudbound” or “Hoyte van Hoytema, “Dunkirk”
Here’s the deal: If “Mudbound” wasn’t on Netflix Rachel Morrison would have a legitimate shot, but few expect the Academy to deny Roger Deakins his place among the great Oscar-winning cinematographers even if they don’t necessarily love “Blade Runner 2049.” And snubbing him for the 14th time is even too cruel for fickle Academy members to overlook him again.