SOUND EDITING
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
Who will win: “Dunkirk”
Who should win: “Dunkirk”
Upset potential: “Baby Driver” or “The Shape of Water”
Here’s the deal: (See Sound Mixing)
MAKEUP AND HAIR
“Darkest Hour”
“Victoria And Abdul”
“Wonder”
Who will win: “Darkest Hour”
Who should win: “Darkest Hour”
Upset potential: None. Well, “Wonder” has a minuscule chance
Here’s the deal: If “Wonder” or “Victoria and Abdul” win here it’s an upset for the history books.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor, “The Shape of Water”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjani, “The Big Sick”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Who will win: Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Who should win: Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” or Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Upset potential: Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” or Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Here’s the deal: This field has to down as one of the most competitive in any category in recent memory. Four nominees have a legitimate shot to win while the fifth, “The Big Sick,” would be a potential upset candidate any other year. If the Academy members go nuts for “The Shape of Water” it could surprise here. If members want to reward Greta Gerwig and “Lady Bird” this could be the category to make it happen. If members really love “Three Billboards” than Martin McDonagh could positively win. More likely, however, is that Jordan Peele and “Get Out” get a well deserved moment in the spotlight on the Dolby Theater stage.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Who will win: James Ivory, “Call Me By Your Name”
Who should win: James Ivory, “Call Me By Your Name”
Upset potential: Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, “Mudbound”
Here’s the deal: Like other Netflix non-documentary nominees, the “Mudbound” duo would have a much better shot here if it didn’t play on the streaming service (the nominations are huge step for the company but the vitriol from a ton of members is real). That means James Ivory will put “Call Me By Your Name” in the winner’s column as the 89-year-old filmmaking legend becomes the oldest winner in Oscar history.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“The Breadwinner”
“Coco”
“The Boss Baby“
“Loving Vincent”
“Ferdinand”
Who will win: “Coco”
Who should win: “Coco”
Upset potential: Are you kidding?
Here’s the deal: We repeat, “Are you kidding?” No contest.
LIVE ACTION SHORT
“DeKalb Elementary”
“The Eleven O’Clock”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“The Silent Child”
“Watu Wote/All of Us”
Who will win: “DeKalb Elementary”
Who should win: “DeKalb Elementary”
Upset potential: “The Silent Child”
Here’s the deal: “DeKalb Elementary” is powerful in the contest of the almost non-stop school shootings America currently faces on a day-to-day basis, but “The Silent Child” may pull more heartstrings and I already know a number of members who voted for it so there’s that.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“Edith+Eddie”
“Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
“Heroin(e)”
“Knife Skills”
“Traffic Stop”
Who will win: “Heroin(e)”
Who should win: “Traffic Stop”
Upset potential: “Traffic Stop” or “Edith+Eddie”
Here’s the deal: This category will make or break most Oscar pools. Unfortunately, like most pundits my advice is “pick ’em.” The advantage “Heroin(e)” has is that Netflix has spent money advertising it during phase two. That means there is a chance some members will check it off just because they recognize the title. Most members take their responsibilities quite seriously, however, and that will help “Heroin(e),” “Edith+Eddie” and “Traffic Spot.” My gut says the later could pull it out, but signs point to “Heroin(e).”
ANIMATED SHORT
“Dear Basketball”
“Garden Party”
“Lou”
“Negative Space”
“Revolting Rhymes”
Who will win: “Dear Basketball”
Who should win: “Revolting Rhymes”
Upset potential: “Revolting Rhymes,” “Lou” or “Garden Party”
Here’s the deal: Revolting is one way to put it with this category. Not that the quality of most of the entries is bad, but because the weakest of the bunch, “Dear Basketball,” will likely win because of Laker great and future NBA Hall of Famer Kobe Bryant’s association with it. That means Bryant will become the first NBA player to win an Academy Award if it wins. It’s important to note Bryant’s name isn’t listed on the ballot, but many members know he and acclaimed animator Glenn Keane collaborated on the hand-drawn animated short. And many of them saw it play during Bryant’s jersey retirement ceremony in December (the greatest free FYC advertisement ever). Los Angeles is a basketball city and a majority of the membership live in Los Angeles. And, yes, they are Laker fans. Oh, and did we mention John Williams scored it? If they come to their sense they’ll go with “Revolting Rhymes” or even Pixar’s reductive “Lou,” but we’re not sure they can help themselves, frankly.
The 90th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 4, 2018, will be broadcast live on the ABC Television Network at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT. Look for full coverage on The Playlist.