Is now when the fun begins? After a historic two-month pandemic-related postponement, the nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards are about to be announced. It’s been a strange campaign with no official in-person screenings, virtual Q&As, and almost every major contender already available on streaming or PVOD. But, hey, it’s the Oscars! And a ceremony at the end of April means friends and family might be able to congregate (masked or vaccine confirmed, obviously) to watch outside. There could be small Oscar viewing parties. And, hey, it might have the first real “red” carpet since the last Oscars over a year ago.
Oh, wait. There are still six weeks to go? Can’t we just move on to Emmy season already?
READ MORE: Oscars considering Union Station for 2021 ceremony
As for the nominations themselves, the guild, industry association, and BAFTA nominations (the only groups that truly overlap with the Academy) have made it clear which films should expect a ton of nominations and which should not. And, most of those films that do have a shot at Best Picture. They have also demonstrated that some films that were seen as longshots months ago (“Sound of Metal,” “Promising Young Woman”) actually weren’t.
Before we get started with our category predictions, a couple of notes. First off, we don’t tackle the short categories until phase 2. Never have, never will. There is only so much to process during a season. Second, the qualifier “potential major snubs” means exactly what it says. This refers to contenders many expected to be nominated that might not be. That doesn’t mean there won’t be other snubs, in theory, but these are the ones that would pop to the public and even other AMPAS members the most.
This year’s nomination predictions are as follows:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”
On the cusp of making it: Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods,” Mads Mikkelsen, “Another Round,” Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian”
Potential major snubs: Gary Oldman
Lowdown: There are three locks here in Ahmed, Boseman, and Hopkins. Oldman should make it but is on decidedly less steady ground. SAG Award nominee Yeun deserves to make it, but he, along with Oldman, could find Mikkelsen, Lindo, or Rahim taking their slot.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Chadwick Boseman, “Da 5 Bloods”
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom, Jr. “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
On the cusp of making it: Alan Kim, “Minari”
Potential major snubs: Sacha Baron Cohen, Chadwick Boseman
Lowdown: Outside of Kim, an absolutely possible late surge contender, there are few candidates who could crack this field. That being said, if Jared Leto actually earns a nod for “The Little Things” we might have to quit this biz and move to Mykonos (that actually doesn’t sound like a bad idea, to be honest).
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
On the cusp of making it: Amy Adams, “Hillbilly Elegy,” Sophia Loren, “The Life Ahead,” Rosamund Pike, “I Care A Lot,” Michelle Pfeiffer, “French Exit”
Potential major snubs: Vanessa Kirby
Lowdown: If you couldn’t tell, there is a wee bit of drama in this race. Davis, McDormand, and Mulligan are safe. The already underrated Kirby is likely. The fifth nominee is a massive question mark. Despite the mixed to negative reviews for “The United States vs. Billie Holiday,” we think the impressive Day earns her first nomination in the final slot.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”
Helena Zengel, “News of the World”
On the cusp of making it: Amanda Seyfried, “Mank,” Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian,” Ellen Burstyn, “Pieces of a Woman,” Dominique Fishback, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Potential major snubs: Olivia Colman, Glenn Close
Lowdown: In theory, this category will shake out as Olivia vs. Glenn pt. 2, but other performances might squash that dramatic opportunity. It’s possible that Fishback crashes after her BAFTA nod and takes Seyfried’s long-expected slot. But it’s much more likely that Zengel (from the seemingly fading “News of the World“) holds on following her SAG Awards nomination.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Onward”
“Over the Moon”
“Soul”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
“Wolfwalkers”
On the cusp of making it: “The Croods: A New Age,” “The Willoughbys”
Potential major snubs: None
Lowdown: While the Animation branch has shown massive love towards Aardman’s films over the years, you could absolutely question whether “Shaun the Sheep Movie” makes the five or not. The rest are on pretty solid ground.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Joshua James Richards, “Nomadland”
Erik Messerschmidt, “Mank”
Lachlan Milne, “Minari”
Phedon Papamichael, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Dariusz Wolski, “News of the World”
On the cusp of making it: Sean Bobbitt, “Judas and the Black Messiah,” Sturla Brandth Grøvlen, “Another Round,” Daniël Bouquet, “Sound of Metal,” Thomas Newton Sigel, “Cherry”
Potential major snubs: Phedon Papamichael, Dariusz Wolski
Lowdown: We’re not expecting Sigel to repeat his ASC nod for “Cherry” here. Instead, look for Milne to keep the “Minari” love going. And if not him, Bobbit could easily join the party for “Judas and the Black Messiah.”
COSTUME DESIGN
Alexandra Byrne, “Emma”
Bina Daigeler, “Mulan”
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, “One Night in Miami…”
Trish Summerville, “Mank”
Ann Roth, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
On the cusp of making it: Nancy Steiner, “Promising Young Woman,” Charlese Antoinette Jones, “Judas and the Black Messiah,” Erin Benach, “Birds of Prey”
Potential major snubs: None
Lowdown: Both Steiner and Benach, for “Promising Young Woman” and “Birds of Prey” respectfully, have the best chance of surprising here.
DIRECTING
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
On the cusp of making it: Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Regina King, “One Night in Miami…,” Shaka King, “Judas and the Black Messiah,”
Potential major snubs: David Fincher
Lowdown: The DGA rarely lines up completely with its sister Oscar category. We think Sorkin is out and Vinterberg or Shaka King fills the slot.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
“All In: The Fight for Democracy”
“Collective”
“Time”
“The Truffle Hunters”
“Welcome to Chechnya”
On the cusp of making it: “Boys State,” “Dick Johnson is Dead,” “Crip Camp,”
Potential major snubs: “Welcome to Chechnya”
Lowdown: Listen, no one can truly read the minds of the documentary branch. They are often confounding and contradictory in the films they select. That being said, “Collective” and “Time” are the only guaranteed nominations here. The rest is honestly a pick ’em from a long list of worthy nominees.
FILM EDITING
Alan Baumgarten, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Yorgos Lamprinos, “The Father”
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, “Sound of Metal”
Frédéric Thoraval, “Promising Young Woman”
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
On the cusp of making it: Kirk Baxter, “Mank,” Harry Yoon, “Minari”
Potential major snubs: Alan Baumgarten, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Lowdown: Thoraval is the question mark. He earned BAFTA and ACE Eddie nominations, but the former was in the Comedy Film category. Ponder.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“Another Round” (Denmark)
“I’m No Longer Here” (Mexico)
“La Llorona,” (Guatemala)
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
“Two of Us” (France)
On the cusp of making it: “Hope” (Norway), “Charlatan” (Czech Republic), “Dear Comrades!” (Russia), “A Sun” (Taiwan), “The Man Who Sold His Skin,” (Tunisia)
Potential major snubs: “Two of Us,” “I’m No Longer Here”
Lowdown: There are likely just two safe nominees in a category that continues to confound even the most seasoned International Film consultants. Most expect “Quo Vadis, Aida?” and “Another Round” to make it. A slew of other films could round out the field, but we’d be very surprised if “Two of Us” isn’t one of them.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Birds of Prey”
“Emma”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Mank”
On the cusp of making it: “Pinocchio,” “Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey”
Potential major snubs: “Hillbilly Elegy,” “Birds of Prey”
Lowdown: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “Hillbilly Elegy” and “Mank are pretty much locks. The rest? Likely, although we have to admit it would be funny to hear “Jingle Jangle” announced as an Oscar nominee during the telecast.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “Soul”
Alexandre Desplat, “The Midnight Sky”
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “Mank”
Emile Mosseri, “Minari”
James Newton Howard, “News of the World”
On the cusp of making it: Terence Blanchard, “Da 5 Bloods,” Ludwig Göransson, “Tenet”
Potential major snubs: James Newton Howard, Alexandre Desplat
Lowdown: Mosseri, and the Reznor/Ross teams behind “Soul” and “Mank” should happen. Can Blanchard or Göransson join them? You can make the argument they should.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Fight for You,” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Io Si (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead”
“Never Break,” from “Giving Voice”
“Speak Now,” from “One Night in Miami”
“Turntables,” from “All In: The Fight for Democracy”
On the cusp of making it: “Husavik,” from “Eurovision Song Contest,” “Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Potential major snubs: “Io Is (Seen”
Lowdown: Is this Diane Warren’s moment? After all these years of striving for that elusive Oscar? She’s certainly got a better shot than in previous years to win it with “Io Si (Seen).” There’s tough competition, however, from Leslie Odom, Jr.’s “Speak Now,” Janelle Monae‘s “Turntables” and H.E.R.‘s “Fight for You” which we expect to make the cut.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Donald Graham Burt, “Mank”
David Crank, “News of the World”
Nathan Crowley, “Tenet”
Mark Ricker, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Grant Major, “Mulan”
On the cusp of making it: KK Barrett, “Birds of Prey,” Shane Valentino, “Trial of the Chicago 7”
Potential major snubs: Mark Ricker, David Crank
Lowdown: “Mank” is the only real lock here. It’s a category is that ripe for some upset nominees. You almost wish there was a shortlist.
SOUND
“Mank”
“Nomadland”
“Sound of Metal”
“News of the World”
“Tenet”
On the cusp of making it: “Soul,” “Greyhound,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Potential major snubs: “Tenet”
Lowdown: In a sea change for the Oscars, this is the first time there will be just one sound category since 1964. “Nomadland” didn’t earn a CAS Sound Mixing nomination, but did earn one for Sound Editing as well as a BAFTA general “sound” nomination, so it’s in. Overall, this is sort of uncharted territory for the Academy so we’ll see how the branch determines the nominees this year.
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Mank”
“The Midnight Sky”
“Mulan”
“Tenet”
“Welcome to Chechnya”
On the cusp of making it: “Birds of Prey,” “Soul”
Potential major snubs: “Tenet”
Lowdown: One of the most unexpected shortlist of VFX contenders ever (they hated it so much they snubbed the worthy “Wonder Woman 1984”), the only safe picks are likely “Mank” and “Tenet.” Maybe.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Kemp Powers, “One Night in Miami”
Jon Raymond and Kelly Reichardt, “First Cow”
Florian Zeller, “The Father”
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
On the cusp of making it: “News of the World,” “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Potential major snubs: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Lowdown: Four nominees are quite safe. We’ve got a hunch “First Cow’s” Raymond and Richardt startle many awards observers with the fifth nod.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Jack Fincher, “Mank”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
On the cusp of making it: Darius Marder, Abraham Marder, “Sound of Metal,” Pete Docter, Kemp Powers, Mike Jones, “Soul”
Potential major snubs: Jack Fincher
Lowdown: It would not surprise us if the trio behind “Soul” replaces Vinterberg or Fincher.
BEST PICTURE
“The Father”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Minari”
“Mank”
“Nomadland”
“One Night in Miami…”
“Sound of Metal”
“Promising Young Woman”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
On the cusp of making it: “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “News of the World,” “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Potential major snubs: “The Father,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “One Night in Miami…”
Lowdown: Here’s the deal. Our gut tells us there are going to be eight nominees, not nine. One of two films could be on the outside looking in: “Ma Rainey” and “One Night.” We think the rest are pretty safe. Could there be less than eight nominees? Possibly. Could all nine make it? Sure. Are we covering our you know what by not picking eight? Listen, if you can’t call yourself out on something, who can you call out? If there are just nine will we remind everyone we had “Minari” from the beginning when most pundits didn’t and were the first to seriously suggest “Promising Young Woman” as a Best Picture nominee? (Just ask Focus). You betcha.
Nominations for the 93rd Academy Awards will be announced insanely early on Monday, March 15. Look for complete coverage on The Playlist.
