Denzel Washington’s highly anticipated big-screen adaptation of August Wilson’s Pulitzer Prize-winning play “Fences” made its debut Saturday night in front of a packed Westwood theater with a very large audience of mostly hyped-up SAG members, press and VIPs. Formal reviews are embargoed at this time, but awards reactions are not, and in that context we have one thing to say:
Viola Davis is 100% your frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress and will likely win baring some unforeseen incident.
READ MORE: 2017 Best Supporting Actress Oscar Predictions
Davis, who plays Rose, is absolutely phenomenal in a role that clearly will be seen by both SAG and Academy members as supporting (so throw out any concerns over category fraud, conspiracy theorists). She is simply heartbreaking at least three times during the picture in ways that are so visceral they make you shake in your seat (not an exaggeration). The two-time Oscar nominee won a Tony Award for the same role in 2010, but manages to make this cinematic interpretation shockingly fresh and alive. Seriously, believe the hype.
Washington also ended up with a Tony Award win alongside Davis for the same revival and is very strong as the film’s main character, Troy. He should certainly finds himself a Best Actor nomination and will earn deserved accolades for his performance. Is he the clear frontrunner in the category, though? Not necessarily. This year’s Best Actor field is relatively weak so far, but “Manchester By The Sea“‘s Casey Affleck is likely going to be a critics’-groups darling and, unlike Washington, hasn’t won before. Can the two-time winner join the three-timer’s club? It’s absolutely possible, but the Best Actor race has a lot more twists and turns before we can settle on a true frontrunner.
As for Best Picture, that’s a somewhat tough call. It’s possible “Fences” earns the premier prize with a huge amount of support from the actors’ branch (remember, you likely need about 400 or so first-place votes to secure a nod). However, the theatrical elements of the play are very much at work here, and you can expect certain branches of the Academy not to embrace the film because of this. And as well as Denzel handles the impressive performances of his cast, a Directing nomination seems unlikely in what is turning out to be a very crowded field.
READ MORE: The 50 Most Anticipated Films Of The Fall Season
Below-the-line nominations would be somewhat surprising, although two-time nominee Sharen Davis for Costumes is possible.
In terms of the SAG Awards, the cast itself is impressive enough to find itself in the mix for a SAG Ensemble nomination. However, that is also a very tough field this season with “Moonlight,” “Hell Or High Water,” “Manchester By The Sea,” “Florence Foster Jenkins,” “Hidden Figures,” “Nocturnal Animals,” “20th Century Women” and even “La La Land” fighting for a slot (don’t scoff about the latter; Lionsgate is going for it).
There will be a lot more written about “Fences” in the weeks to come, but for now, just prepare yourself to bask in Viola’s glory.
“Fences” opens nationwide on Christmas Day.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing – Coming Soon
Cinematography – Coming Soon
Animated Feature Film – Coming Soon
Foreign Language Film – Coming Soon
Documentary Feature – Coming Soon
Original Score – Coming Soon
Original Song – Coming Soon
Costumes – Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling – Coming Soon
Visual Effects – Coming Soon
Sound Mixing – Coming Soon
Sound Editing – Coming Soon
For more Oscar and industry insight, follow Gregory Ellwood on Twitter @TheGregoryE.
