The first major tentpole for 2025 is arriving in theaters in less than five weeks and early tracking suggests it should be a nice triple toward the left field fence for Marvel Studios and the Walt Disney Company. Reports indicate that “Captain America: Brave New World” is looking at an $86 to $95 million three-day opening weekend beginning on Friday, February 14. Over four days, the extended President’s Day weekend tally is looking closer to $100 million.
READ MORE: “Captain America: Brave New World” Special Look: Marvel’s Phase 5 Continues
That frame would be less than the critically derived “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” which debuted to $106 million over the Feb. 17 weekend in 2023. That movie crashed with terrible word of mouth earning just $214.5 million domestically (a weak 2x multiple). It would, however, be substantially higher than “The Marvels” which opened to just $46 million the following November. Just two Marvel Studios releases have knocked it out of the park over the past 24 months: “Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3” ($118 million debut) in May 2023 and “Deadpool & Wolverine” ($211.4 million opening) this past July.
Sony Pictures also scored with the animated “Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse” ($120.6 million) in June 2023, but has been riding a wave of box office disappointments including “Moebius,” “Madame Web,” and “Kraven the Hunter” just last month. The third “Venom,” “Venom: The Last Dance,” debuted to just $51 million in October, down substantially from the previous installment’s $90 million opening. The Tom Hardy flick made up for it overseas eventually netting a serviceable $474 million worldwide when all was said and done.
Numerous reports suggest the budget for “Brave New World” is over $250 million due to reshoots this past summer and the final figure could be substantially higher. Those figures have not been confirmed by verified sources at this time. Whatever the case, this incarnation of “Captain America” would need tremendous word of mouth in the United States and significant overseas ticket sales to come anywhere close to break even.
The first three “Captain America” films saw Chris Evans in the title role as, the more familiar Cap, Steve Rogers. The first movie, “Captain America: The First Avenger,” was released by Paramount Pictures in 2011 and opened to $65 million before ending with $370 million worldwide. “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” was released under new Marvel Studios owner Disney and debuted to $95 million in 2014. It ended up with a massive $714 million final cume. The third installment, “Captain America: Civil War,” was essentially a mini-“Avengers” movie and debuted to $179 million in 2016. It grossed a staggering $1.151 billion worldwide. “Brave New World” is a very different beast.
Following the events of “Avengers: Endgame,” the mantle of Captain America is now in the wings of Sam Wilson (Anthony Mackie). The character already explored his comfort with the role in “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier,” a big hit for Disney+ in March 2021. Whether audiences will be enticed to see this character on the big screen or wait for it to drop on the streaming service remains to be seen, but that has to be taken into account over any concern over the initial box office projections. As well as, obviously, the fact the actor long associated Captain America, Chris Evans, is not in the movie.
Directed by Julius Onah, “Brave New World” has pinned its financial hopes on the casting of Harrison Ford as Thaddeus “Thunderbolt” Ross, and his Red Hulk incarnation. Ford replaced William Hurt, who portrayed the character in numerous appearances beginning in 2008 and passed away in 2022.
Marvel Studios has two other films on deck this year to potentially kick-start an MCU rejuvenation: “Thunderbolts” on May 2 and “The Fantastic Four: The Final Steps” on July 25.
