It’s always a strange time in Hollywood, but it’s an understatement to say everything is really off-kilter right now. Obviously, the Writers Guild strike has brought a majority of television and film production to a halt. But on Wednesday, a potential Screen Actors Guild strike may be announced the same day as the 2023 Primetime Emmy Award nominations are revealed. Are both worthy of celebration? Or not?
The good news about this year’s Emmy nominations is that there are a ton of new players in the mix. Sure, “Ted Lasso,” “Abbott Elementary,” “Better Call Saul,” “RuPaul’s Drag Race,” “Succession” and “The White Lotus” are once again in line for a ton of nominations. But, new players such as “Andor,” “Poker Face,” “The Last of Us,” “Beef,” “House of the Dragon,” “Daisy Jones and the Six,” “Wednesday,” and, of course, “The Bear,” should make their mark. But the Television Academy are as unpredictable as they are predictable. And that means surprises are in order.
When considering the nominations we have to wonder: Can HBO be the first network to land four Drama Series nominations in 31 years? Will Netflix have as “down” a year as many thought just three months ago? (Wait, we can answer that, and the answer is “no.”) Will Amazon Freeve’s “Jury Duty” and Apple TV+’s “Shrinking” crash big categories? Will “Fleischman Is In Trouble” land all the nominations other pundits are predicting? (Hmmmm). Could “Only Murders in The Building,” “The Patient” and “Blackbird” underperform to expectations? Will the Television Academy actually nominate five movies made for TV worthy of the Outstanding Television Movie category? (Wait, we know the answer to that one too, it’s also a “no.”) Will the Emmy ceremony actually take place September 18 as scheduled or could the work stoppages push it to November or December?
Perhaps that last question is the most intriguing of all, but if SAG and the Hollywood networks and studios settle by Wednesday maybe it’s a sign the show will go on. And if they don’t, well, who doesn’t love an awards ceremony right before Thanksgiving?
Keeping all that in mind, here are some 2023 Emmy nomination predictions (in the major categories) to ponder before the big reveal on Wednesday at 8:30 AM PT, 11:30 AM ET on Emmys.com.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Donald Glover, “Atlanta”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Snubbed: Nicholas Hoult, “The Great,” Jason Segel, “Shrinking,” Bob Odenkirk, “Lucky Hank,”
Lowdown: The only real question in this category is whether Glover is nubbed and Hoult or Segel makes it instead.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Elle Fanning, “The Great”
Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face”
Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday”
Snubbed: Bridged Everett, “Somebody Somewhere,” Selena Gomez, “Only Murders In The Building”
Lowdown: If not Fanning, then who? Everett making the cut would be incredible.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man”
Brian Cox, “Succession”
Keiran Culkin, “Succession”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
Jeremy Strong, “Succession”
Snubbed: Diego Luna, “Andor,” Paddy Considine, “House of the Dragon,” Harrison Ford, “1923”
Lowdown: Can all three “Succession” actors make it? If not, we’re hoping Luna finds a way to sneak in instead.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Emma D’Arcy, “House of the Dragon”
Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”
Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
Sarah Snook, “Succession”
Snubbed: Imelda Staunton, “The Crown,” Hellen Mirren, “1923,” Juliette Lewis, “Yellowjackets,” Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”
Lowdown: This is a very tough category. In truth, only Lynskey, Ramsey, and Snook are locked. The other three slots are very open (although we can’t discount Moss…for now). Don’t be surprised if Hogan and/or Mirren sneak in here.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Taron Egerton, “Black Bird”
Steve Carell, “The Patient”
Evan Peters, “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Daniel Radcliffe, “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”
Michael Shannon, “George & Tammy”
Steven Yeun, “Beef”
Snubbed: Jesse Eisenberg, “Fleischman Is In Trouble,” Ben Whishaw, “This Is Going To Hurt,” Kumail Nanjiani, “Welcome to Chippendales”
Lowdown: We’re going with Carell over Eisenberg, but the sixth slot. Don’t cry for the very deserving Whishaw. He won an Emmy in 2019 and took his third BAFTA for “This Is Going To Hurt” earlier this year.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Emily Blunt, “The English”
Jessica Chastain, “George & Tammy”
Bel Powley, “A Small Light”
Riley Keough, “Daisy Jones and the Six”
Rachel Weisz, “Dead Ringers”
Ali Wong, “Beef”
Snubbed: Dominique Fishback, “Swarm,” Lizzy Kaplan, “Fleishman Is In Trouble,” Betty Gilpin, “Mrs. Davis,” Sydney Sweeney, “Reality,” Alicia Vikander, “Irma Vep”
Lowdown: SAG Awards nominee Blunt campaigned hard and we think that will get her in over Kaplan and Davis.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Carrigan, “Barry”
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”
Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Tony Shaloub, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
Snubbed: Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live,” Kenan Thompson, “Saturday Night Live,” Chris Perfetti, “Abbott Elementary,” James Marsden, “Jury Duty,” Harvey Guillen, “What We Do In The Shadows,” Phil Dunster, “Ted Lasso”
Lowdown: Yang, Thompson, Perfetti, Dunster and, maybe, Marsden, could all play spoiler here. Admittedly, it does seem odd that Yang wouldn’t make it though.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Sarah Goldberg, “Barry”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”
Ego Nwodim, “Saturday Night Live”
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”
Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso”
Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”
Snubbed: Cecily Strong, “Saturday Night Live,” Lisa Ann Walter, “Abbott Elementary,” Jane Krakowski, “Schmigadoon!”
Lowdown: Nwodim might be a reach, but we think one of the “SNL” ladies still makes the cut. If not her, then Strong, in her final season, is likely.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Nicholas Braun, “Succession”
Giancarlo Esposito, “Better Call Saul”
John Lithgow, “The Old Man”
Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Alan Ruck, “Succession”
Will Sharpe, “The White Lotus”
Alexander Skarsgard, “Succession”
Matt Smith, “House of the Dragon”
Snubbed: Stellan Skarsgard, “Andor,” Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul,” F. Murray Abraham, “The White Lotus”
Lowdown: Could Abraham make it over his “White Lotus” co-star, Sharpe? Absolutely. Should the elder Skarsgard earn a nomination instead? You bet he should.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
J. Smith-Cameron, “Succession”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Meghann Fahy “The White Lotus”
Lesley Manville, “The Crown”
Aubrey Plaza, “The White Lotus”
Christina Ricci, “Yellowjackets”
Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”
Snubbed: Genevieve O’Reilly, “Andor,” Olivia Cooke, “House of the Dragon,” Haley Lu Richardson, “The White Lotus,” Carol Burnett, “Better Call Saul,” Anne-Marie Duff, “Bad Sisters”
Lowdown: In a perfect world O’Reilly is one of the eight for her incredible performance in “Andor,” but there is simply not enough hype. Maybe if the show hadn’t been shooting season two more in-person LA events would have helped. We were definitely not a fan of the most recent season of “The Crown,” but Debicki and Manville were the only reason to watch it. We think they both make it.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Murray Bartlett, “Welcome to Chippendales”
Domhnall Gleeson, “The Patient”
Paul Walter Hauser, “Blackbird”
Richard Jenkins, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Ray Liotta, “Blackbird”
Young Mazino, “Beef”
Liev Schreiber, “A Small Light”
Snubbed: Jesse Plemons, “Love and Death,” Joseph Lee, “Beef”
Lowdown: In theory, both “Beef” actors could make it, but the category seems too competitive for that to occur. We’re also counting on a mountain of continuing Emmy love for Bartlett, who spent significant time campaigning for both his “Chippendales” and “The Last of Us” performances (the latter is in the Guest Actor in a Drama Series category), to land the nom.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie
Maria Bello, “Beef”
Olivia Colman, “Great Expectations”
Claire Danes, “Fleishman Is In Trouble”
Niecy Nash-Betts, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Cherry Jones, “Five Days at Memorial”
Lena Headey, “White House Plumbers”
Merritt Wever, “Tiny Beautiful Things”
Snubbed: Jennifer Ehle, “Dead Ringers,” Michael Learned, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” Camila Morrone, “Daisy Jones and the Six”
Lowdown: Besides Bello, Danes, and Nash-Betts, this category is wide, wide, wide open.
Outstanding Competition Series
“RuPaul’s Drag Race”
“Nailed It”
“Top Chef”
“The Amazing Race”
“The Traitors”
“The Voice”
Snubbed: “Survivor,” “Is It Cake,” “American Ninja Warrior,” “The Masked Singer,” “Lego Masters”
Lowdown: Lizzo didn’t release an album, er, didn’t release a new season of last year’s champ, “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls,” this past year. That opens up a slot for, likely, Peacock’s buzzworthy “The Traitors” although we’re slightly concerned they under-campaigned it a bit.
Outstanding Limited Series or Anthology Series
“Beef”
“Blackbird”
“Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
“Daisy Jones and the Six”
“George and Tammy”
Snubbed: “Fleischman Is In Trouble,” “Dead Ringers,” “A Small Light,” “Swarm,” “The Patient,” “Welcome to Chippendales,” “This Is Going To Hurt”
Lowdown: Who deserves to make this field and won’t? “Dead Ringers.” What shows actually have a shot at making the five over “George and Tammy?” “Fleischman Is In Trouble” or “A SmallLight.”
Outstanding Comedy Series
“Abbott Elementary”
“Barry”
“The Bear”
“Only Murders in the Building”
“Poker Face”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Ted Lasso”
“Wednesday”
Snubbed: “What We Do In The Shadows,” “Reservation Dogs,” “Atlanta,” “The Great,” “Jury Duty,” “The Other Two,” “Shrinking,” “Somebody Somewhere”
Lowdown: Listen, there is a chance “Wednesday” gets bumped for “Shrinking” or “Jury Duty,” but we think the power of Netflix with the Television Academy (and the fact the show was a massive hit) is simply too strong for that to occur.
Outstanding Drama Series
“Andor”
“Better Call Saul”
“The Crown”
“House of Dragons”
“The Last of Us”
“Succession”
“The White Lotus”
“Yellowjackets”
Snubbed: “The Mandalorian,” “Yellowstone,” “The Old Man,” “1923,” “The Diplomat,” “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Lowdown: “Andor” better make this field or we’re taking to the streets. “The Crown” is also on tenuous ground here, but we think it will unfortunately pull through.
The 2023 Primetime Emmy nominations will be revealed on Wednesday, July 12. Look for full coverage on The Playlist.
