The HFPA’s choices on Sunday night had many perplexed. Best Picture winners “Green Book” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” were not the films anyone expected them to choose in those categories. Many were aware the organization loved Peter Farrelly’s melodrama, but still expected them to select “The Favourite” for Best Picture – Musical or Comedy. The adoration of “Rhapsody” was also well known but supposed Oscar-frontrunner “A Star is Born” was still thought of as the appropriate choice in the Best Picture – Drama category (“Star” was the Oscar frontrunner and the HFPA doesn’t like to be “wrong”). Instead, Globes voters went with their hearts, all 88 or so of them (assuming we’re counting even the ones who are secretly suspended) and almost every studio in town is reeling in one way or another. It was a bizarre set of circumstances to deal with.
Let’s be clear, the Golden Globe nominations have never affected the Oscar nomination race. What the “wins” do, however, is provide a massive public relations boost to a particular contender or film. This is exacerbated by the fact that this year Academy members haven’t submitted their votes before tonight’s show, it begins today, Monday, Jan. 7, and doesn’t end until Monday, Jan. 14. There hasn’t been this much time in between a Globes telecast and the last day of voting this century. This is simply uncharted territory. And as crazy as it might seem, the HFPA anointing “Bohemian” might have pushed it over the top as a first or second choice for voters who might have been warry considering the allegations over fired director Bryan Singer (whose name still happened to be trending at 3 AM PT Monday morning on Twitter for not-so-positive reasons) or the major historical inaccuracies in the picture’s script. Speaking to industry players and Academy members following the Globes, many admitted they loved the movie despite its problematic nature because it was simply “the most entertaining movie” they had seen all year. Sometimes all you need is for a movie to stir an emotional reaction and that will likely get “Bohemian” in the Best Picture field of eight or nine films. That is barring a massive public relations nightmare over the next 48 hours.
This scenario may also make the improbable probable. No foreign language film has ever won Best Picture and there are still those that doubt whether a Netflix release can win Best Picture (“Roma” will be its first official nod). The most critically acclaimed film may, however, become the eventual defacto first and second choice for the more sophisticated branch of the Academy who could never vote for “Green Book” or “Bohemian.” It could even sneak “Black Panther,” “BlacKkKlansman” or “The Favourite” into pole position, too. There are a lot of movies the Academy loves and what becomes the second choice will become key in determining Best Picture. We are nowhere near “a great settling” which is usually a given for this stage of the campaign.
It should also be noted that the HFPA has not picked a Best Picture winner consistently this decade despite two different categories to find it. “The Shape of Water,” “Spotlight,” “Birdman” and “The King’s Speech” did not get Globe Best Picture wins. So, in theory, “Bohemian” and “Green Book” have a 50/50 shot at winning. Honestly, those aren’t bad odds if you’re 20th Century Fox or Universal Pictures.
The other big story that came out of this year’s Globes telecast surrounded the Best Actress race. As expected, Olivia Colman won Best Actress – Comedy or Musical, but, in a surprise, Glenn Close took the Best Actress – Drama win for “The Wife.” It had been expected that Lady Gaga would have secure that category for “A Star is Born,” instead Bradley Cooper’s blockbuster only won Best Original Song for “Shallow.” Both speeches were lauded – although we were turned off by Close’s “everything but the kitchen sink” forced approached – and the question is who now wins what is perceived as a two-horse race. Either Colman or Close could win SAG and you’d expect the former to win BAFTA assuming that organization’s choices even mean anything to Academy voters anymore (it’s beyond debatable).
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Throw in the fact “If Beale Street Could Talk’s” incredibly worthy Regina King won the Supporting Actress Globe but wasn’t nominated for SAG (and may not be nominated for BAFTA) and we have another tight race for Oscar. Either King, “The Favourite’s” Rachel Weisz (or even Emma Stone) and “Vice’s” Amy Adams are in the running. Who wins with a slew of different winners expected over the upcoming six weeks makes this category a shocking player. All thanks to the peculiar whims of the HFPA.
And the more you ponder, you begin to wonder if Bradley Cooper will win an Oscar at all, something that was perceived as a lock just two months ago. Will he take Adapted Screenplay or is that left to Spike Lee’s “BlacKkKlansman” script? Can Lee upset Cuaron for Best Director? (Unlikely, but there’s a shot). Can Cooper make a comeback vs. Malek for Best Actor? That seems hard to foresee at this point, but…maybe?
There’s a lot on deck. What five films will earn editing nods? Will “Green Book’s” Peter Farrelly somehow sneak his way into the Best Director race? (Before tonight most were skeptical). Can “BlacKkKlansman” land acting and editing nods? Can “Roma” do the same? All the key indicators might matter or they might not. It’s that kind of year.
What we do know, is the HFPA threw a wrench into what many in the industry saw as an inevitable road for “A Star is Born” and we’re likely to endure a few more surprises in the immediate weeks to come. Hold on and prepare for a very bumpy ride.
