A funny thing happened on the way to a COVID-delayed Oscar qualification deadline. Real Best Picture contenders showed up. That’s right, anyone who thinks they are putting an asterisk on this upcoming 2021 Academy Awards ceremony like the ongoing NBA playoffs, Stanley Cup playoffs, or severely shortened MLB season are in for a surprise.
READ MORE: Awards Season Verdicts: “The Trial of the Chicago 7” and “On the Rocks”
Granted, we have a long, long way to go. It’s basically the beginning of October, which would be the end of July on the timeline of any other traditional awards season. In that context, Searchlight Pictures’ “Nomadland” won the equivalent of Cannes with the Golden Lion at Venice (go with me for a minute) and there should be a bunch of fall festivals offering more contenders in a month or so. Except, after a subdued Venice and Toronto those films are instead coming in waves.
Already screened contenders include Warner Bros.’ “Tenet,” Amazon Studios’ “One Night in Miami,” NEON’s “Ammonite,” Apple and A24’s “On the Rocks” and “Pieces of a Woman” which Netflix acquired after Venice. And then there is Sundance Grand Jury and Audience Award winner “Minari” which A24 just dropped a trailer and a promised “before the deadline” release date for. Netflix also showed “The Trial of the Chicago 7” to the press and it will be available worldwide on the service beginning Oct. 16. And more titles from that particular streamer are on the way.
Netflix has five, yes five other potential Best PIcture players in “Mank,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “The Midnight Sky,” “Hillbilly Elegy” and “Da 5 Bloods” which launched this past summer. For context, the last time one studio had more than two Best Picture nominees a majority of Americans got their news on the radio. Even under these unorthodox circumstances can they pull off at least three nods? Despite the option for up to 10 nominees over the past decade and studios going for it, the issue has always been not enough top personnel guiding a campaign and the difficulty of studios attempting not to play favorites with filmmakers and producers (the latter is basically impossible). Without the competition of contenders fighting for “live” events (premieres, Q&As, exhibits, parties, etc.) maybe this is the one scenario where a studio can actually pull it off. That’s a big maybe though.
Other major players waiting in the wings are Universal’s “News of the World,” Paramount’s “The United States vs. Billie Holiday,” Apple TV+’s “Cherry” (they also have the biggest hit of their fledgling service in “Greyhound” in the mix), MGM’s “Respect,” Sony Classics’ “French Exit” and Focus Features has “Stillwater” (we think) while Warner Bros. has both “Dune” and “Judas and the Black Messiah” waiting in the wings. And there are other worthy films such as “Emma,” “Shirley,” “Palm Springs,” “First Cow,” “Promising Young Woman” and “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” that will attempt to make a mark outside of potential Gotham and Spirit Awards recognition. And does anyone want to discount Daniel Craig‘s last Bond run “No Time To Die” at this point? Or Pixar’s “Soul”? Do so at your peril.
But, again, we’re five months out. Theaters are opening up in San Francisco and could reopen in Los Angeles within the next few weeks. If they show any sign of life domestically than studios may reconsider some films that were pushed beyond the February 28 deadline. Oh, and we haven’t even brought up the scenario of the 2021 Sundance Film Festival, but we’ll save that for another time.
Here’s the first official Contender Countdown of the 2021 Oscar season.
Sept 30, 2020
IN THE MIX
“Nomadland”
A frontrunner that makes people cry. What else do you need to know?
“Minari”
How quickly they forget. We certainly haven’t.
“Mank”
Lots to live up to, but this could truly be Fincher’s moment. Although we’re pretty sure we’ve heard that before…
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Big screen would have helped, but it will find its first-place votes.
“One Night In Miami”
Is this Regina King‘s second chapter in her love affair with Oscar?
“News of the World”
If you’ve been paying attention to Universal’s release strategy during COVID you realize they wouldn’t be putting it in theaters if they didn’t think it was something special. Don’t need to know much else, to be honest.
“Tenet”
Why don’t we see what happens when more members see it after theaters reopen in Los Angeles in the next few weeks.
“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Paramount didn’t pick it up during the pandemic to then turn around and sell it to a streamer.
“Dune”
“Blade Runner 2049” didn’t make the cut in a very competitive year. Something tells us not to discount Denis this time around.
“Stillwater”
The only legitimate “Is this actually coming out by the deadline?” contender on this list.
“Greyhound”
Apple’s first legit awards season player. Big steps or baby steps?
“Ammonite”
At absolute worst, a Kate, Saoirse and Costumes play.
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Is it Netflix’s third legit Best Picture player or its second? Or just a showcase for Chadwick and Viola?
“Da 5 Bloods”
One word: Timing. And we’re not talking about the context of the upcoming season.
“Shirley”
Longshot for sure. Dare to dream.
“Respect”
Waiting to be impressed.
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
It would help to see it.
“Cherry”
Apple’s second legit player? They think? Maybe?
“Promising Young Woman”
Could be a Christmas surprise.
“Pieces of a Woman”
In a perfect world near the top of this list. Can Netflix juggle four or five potential Best Picture contenders?
“French Exit”
Closes NYFF on Oct. 10
OTHERS HOPING TO PLAY THE GAME
“On the Rocks”
In terms of picture, could it be more than a Golden Globe play?
“Mulan”
Listen, it’s 2020, OK? We’re not discounting it yet.
“The King of Staten Island”
Likely just an Original Screenplay player.
“The Midnight Sky”
Possible, pt. 1.
“Hillbilly Elegy”
Possible, pt. 2.
“Palm Springs”
Certainly entertained many at the height of the stay at home orders. Did enough members catch it, though?
“Emma”
The HFPA have entered the chat.
“First Cow”
Spirits for sure, but boy does it deserves a ton more.
“Everyone’s Talking About Jamie”
Is. This. Even. Coming. Out.
“The Prom”
Do we have faith Ryan Murphy can transform a musical that already had its detractors into a Best Picture nominee? I mean, if you have to ask.
2021 Contenders and Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
