There’s a lot of good news in Oscar’s Best Director race. First off, there is potentially historic in the works with Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”), Lee Issac Chung (“Minari”), Regina King (“One Night in Miami“) all likely nominees. Moreover, David Fincher (“Mank”) could earn his third nomination in this category, while Aaron Sorkin (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) could earn his first. But beware. This branch is small (just 564 voters). They love to surprise. [Updated Feb. 17]
LIKELY LOCKS
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Regina King, “One Night in Miami”
ALMOST THERE
David Fincher, “Mank”
Spike Lee, “Da 5 Bloods”
Paul Greengrass, “News of the World”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Emerald Ferrel, “Promising Young Woman”
LONGSHOT
George C. Wolfe, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Shaka King, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Kelly Reichardt, “First Cow”
2021 Oscar Contenders and Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Editor-at-Large Gregory Ellwood is one of the entertainment industry's most respected journalists and critics. Based in Los Angeles, he's the only current awards expert who previously worked on Oscar campaigns at a major movie studio. Over the years, he has written for the LA Times, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Vox, among others. He also co-founded the entertainment news site HitFix, which spawned a legion of influential Emmy and WGA Award-winning alumni.
