[This edition of the Contender Countdown was originally published in The Breakdown newsletter on Monday, Nov 11. Get all of The Playlist’s Oscar rankings including Best Picture, Best Actress, and more in The Breakdown first. Subscribe here.]
A week before Thanksgiving we will know. By that point, all the films that are potential Best Picture contenders will have screened for AMPAS, guild, and the media (assuming we still have any influence). Granted, the winner will still be up for grabs, but the pretenders should slowly begin to widdle away to a class of legit contenders.
Well, maybe.
The last movie to screen is James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown.” That Searchlight Pictures release will have its first public viewing next week. This past Thursday, Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu” became the second to last contender to debut as it played to a packed audience of guild and media at the DGA Theater. A Q&A with Eggers, moderated by an increasingly svelte-looking Guillermo del Toro (cheering it), followed. A few days later, Todd Field moderated a conversation with Eggers in New York. That’s a pretty impressive one-two punch for another stellar work for the New Hampshire-born auteur.
We’re embargoed from reviewing the film, but discussing it in an awards season context isn’t prohibited. Judging from Eggers’ previous oeuvre, it was almost a given that the below-the-line team of cinematographer Jarin Blaschke (Oscar nominee for “The Lighthouse“), production designer Craig Lathrop, costume designer Linda Muir, the Hair and Makeup, and Sound teams would deliver exemplary work. Perhaps the only surprise in that context is Robin Carolan’s stunning score. Despite an increasingly fierce Original Score field, he should not be dismissed as a potential nominee.
The true surprise – not that it wasn’t heavily rumored for months – is Lily-Rose Depp‘s performance as the object of the vampire’s desire, Ellen Hunter. It’s not hyperbole to describe it as the best work of her career and certainly something that will help anyone but fans of The Weeknd forget “The Idol.“
She’s now in the midst of an insanely competitive race where Zoe Saldana (“Emila Perez,” unless her peers push her to Lead Actress), Natasha Lyonne (“His Three Daughters”), Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”), Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”), Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”), Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”), and Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”) (wait, did we spill?) could all find lady luck. And that doesn’t even count deserving turns from Margaret Qualley (“The Substance”), Carrie Coon (“His Three Daughters”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Joan Chen (“Didi”), Lonie Benesch (“September 5”) or Carol Kane (“Between the Temples”). Yes, the ladies are simply outclassing the men in both the Best Actress and Supporting Actress races this season. Definitely a “love to see it” moment.
As for Eggers, he has an outside shot at a Director nomination. Especially since this feels like his most accessible creation since “The Witch.” Again, we’re talking outside shot unless “Nosferatu” somehow takes off in a number of different directions. As for Adapted Screenplay, there are at least four other contenders “Nosferatu” would have to jump in front of to make the final five. Not impossible, but surely not an easy task.
As for Best Picture, listen, nothing is off the table this year. Many have already forgotten how the results of the 2016 election upended the 2017 Best Picture race. In early November of that year, “La La Land” was considered a given to win it all. A few months later “Moonlight” took the crown instead. In September, few thought “Hidden Figures” was a Best Picture nominee contender, but sentiment changed after the election. We remember the first screening and reception for that movie just a few days after the results. You could feel it in the air. Is “Nosferatu” the sort of film that could benefit from Academy members reconsidering their votes? Maybe. Maybe not. It will absolutely benefit some of these year’s contenders, that’s for sure.
The good news for Focus is they already have a potential Best Picture winner in “Conclave,” a movie that is knocking it out of the park at the box office. In terms of counter-programming theatrical returns, “Nosferatu” actually has a shot to do better over the Christmas holiday frame than another alternative player, A24’s “Babygirl.” And NBCUniversal’s mini-major wouldn’t be upset if that happened.
Keeping all that in mind. Here’s your Contender Countdown of the Best Picture race as of…
Nov. 11, 2024.
1 “Anora”
A true crowd-pleaser, but is it deep enough to win?
2 “The Brutalist”
What does it need to snag the frontrunner slot? Ponder.
3 “Conclave”
Box office, baby. The more it makes, the better it’s shot to take the Hollywood papacy.
4 “Emilia Perez”
Will the election help Karla Sofía Gascón secure a Best Actress nomination?
5 “Dune Part II”
The silent nominee lock. The below-the-line favorite.
6 “A Real Pain”
Knew it. And the fact it’s a post-election “hug” doesn’t hurt either.
7 “Nickel Boys”
At the moment, it’s the second best-reviewed film on this list. It should be fine, right? Right?
8 “A Complete Unknown”
The last true player to screen. We’ll know soon enough.
9 “Challengers”
Zendaya is now campaigning for it. Will Luca realize this is his real player and get on board?
10 “Blitz” (tie)
It’s either Steve McQueen’s WW II melodrama or…
10 “Wicked” (tie)
…Jon M. Chu’s expected musical blockbuster. A wonderous fantasy which the Acadmey may be unable to resist.
11 “Sing Sing”
Arguably, the biggest wildcard of the season. A flip ’em on making it. At least until the PGA has its say.
12 “The Room Next Door”
The European Film Awards nominations show there is genuine respect, but it may need another film or two to fall from contention to make it.
13 “September 5”
Can it crack through the competition? This one needs a pedal to the metal sooner rather than later.
14 “Civil War”
I mean, if A24 was smart, they’d lean in. Just sayin’.
15 “Hard Truths”
Marianne Jean-Baptiste needs a LAFCA or NYFCC win. But she’s campaiging.
16 “Nosferatu”
At absolute worst, should earn several key below-the-line nominations.
17 “The Substance”
Still has a shot, but not convinced it’s playing with older AMPAS members. Needs critics groups love even for Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley campaigns.
18 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Gonna make a ton of top 10 lists. Would need massive International support to make the 10. It’s still just too below the radar of most voters.
19 “The Piano Lesson”
Don’t fail Danielle Deadwyler SAG. We mean it.
20 “Gladiator II”
Denzel Washington has a shot at cracking the Supporting Actor class. We’re not sure it’s a Best Picture play and those reviews don’t help, but anything is possible if the box office hits.
