BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- “All That Breathes” Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann and Teddy Leifer
- “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin and Yoni Golijov
- “Fire of Love” Sara Dosa, Shane Boris and Ina Fichman
- “A House Made of Splinters” Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström
- “Navalny” Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller and Shane Boris
Who will win: “Navalny”
Who should win: “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
Upset: “Fire of Love”
Lowdown: A great year for this category. “All the Beauty” is incredible and “Fire of Love” has its fans, but the timely “Navalny” will give a Sundance Film Festival documentary world premiere another Oscar win.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
- “The Elephant Whisperers” Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
- “Haulout” Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
- “How Do You Measure a Year?” Jay Rosenblatt
- “The Martha Mitchell Effect” Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
- “Stranger at the Gate” Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Who will win: “Stranger at the Gate”
Who should win: “The Elephant Whisperers,” “Stranger at the Gate”
Upset: “The Elephant Whisperers”
Lowdown: Honestly, a toss-up between “Stranger” and “Elephant.” Our personal pick would be the latter, but “Stranger” appears to resonate more with the membership.
ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
- “Elvis” Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Paul Rogers
- “Tár” Monika Willi
- “Top Gun: Maverick” Eddie Hamilton
Who will win: Paul Rogers (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”)
Who should win: Paul Rogers
Upset: Eddie Hamilton (“Top Gun: Maverick”)
Lowdown: Hamilton has a shot for his work on “Top Gun: Maverick,” but “Everything Everywhere” is a film that utterly lives and dies on its editing. Also, it was the only win the film picked up at BAFTA in a ceremony dominated by “All Quiet on the Western Front.”
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” Germany
- “Argentina, 1985” Argentina
- “Close” Belgium
- “EO” Poland
- “The Quiet Girl” Ireland
Who will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Who should win: “Close”
Upset: “Close”
Lowdown: “Close” has its fans, but more members saw “All Quiet” and that will easily give it the trophy. Sigh.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
- “The Batman” Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
- “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
- “Elvis” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
- “The Whale” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley
Who will win: Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti (“Elvis”)
Who should win: Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
Upset: Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley (“The Whale”)
Lowdown: We just cannot believe the membership will reward “The Whale” for putting Fraser in a fat suit. The “Elvis” team took the BAFTA over a similar field. That’s enough for us.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SCORE)
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” Volker Bertelmann
- “Babylon” Justin Hurwitz
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” Carter Burwell
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Son Lux
- “The Fabelmans” John Williams
Who will win: Volker Bertelmann
Who should win: John Williams
Upset: Justin Hurwitz, John Williams
Lowdown: Hurwitz could win, but we’re not convinced the membership have happy memories of watching “Babylon.” Williams is deserving, but a drumbeat campaign for the maestro likely started too late to make a real impact (he has fewer wins than you think). “All Quiet’s” Bertelmann won over a similar field at BAFTA and is likely the consensus score for members to vote for.
ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC WRITTEN FOR MOTION PICTURES (ORIGINAL SONG)
- “Applause” from “Tell It like a Woman”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren - “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick”
Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop - “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler - “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose - “This Is A Life” from “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne
Who will win: “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick”
Who should win: “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Upset: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
Lowdown: If Rihanna had campaigned whatsoever. If she had done one interview. If she had performed “Lift Me Up” on one talk show. If she had done anything, this race might be completely over. Instead, it’s a three-way flip ’em with Lady Gaga’s “Hold My Hand” and “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” also in the mix. The “RRR” song could easily win, but we think Gaga gets her second statue thanks to some major “Top Gun: Maverick” love. That being said, “Lift Me Up” has the most streams by far of any of the nominees. Good luck picking this one.
ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
- “Babylon” Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
- “Elvis” Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
- “The Fabelmans” Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara
Who will win: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Bev Dunn (“Elvis”)
Who should win: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Bev Dunn (“Elvis”)
Upset: Florencia Martin; Anthony Carlino (“Babylon”) or Christian M. Goldbeck; Ernestine Hipper (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)
Lowdown: The “Babylon” or “All Quiet” teams have a shot. However, the love and respect for “Elvis” will likely prevail. And, if Martin wins this category and costumes? She’ll have won both for three different films. Amazing.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
- “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
- “The Flying Sailor” Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
- “Ice Merchants” João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
- “My Year of Dicks” Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
- “An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” Lachlan Pendragon
Who will win: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
Who should win: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
Upset: None
Lowdown: “Fox and the Horse” is one of the best-animated shorts in years. A likely win for the Apple TV+ short.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
- “An Irish Goodbye” Tom Berkeley and Ross White
- “Ivalu” Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
- “Le Pupille” Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
- “Night Ride” Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
- “The Red Suitcase” Cyrus Neshvad
Who will win: “The Red Suitcase”
Who should win: “The Red Suitcase,” “An Irish Goodbye”
Upset: “Le Pupille,” “An Irish Goodbye”
Lowdown: “An Irish Goodbye” took the BAFTA in a decidedly different field. “Le Pupille” has a known filmmaker behind it (Alice Rohrwacher) and was viewable on Disney+ (streaming doesn’t hurt). It’s also, um, slightly overrated? Instead, we’re going with “The Red Suitcase” which we know members have voted for and it’s the most timely narrative of the bunch.
ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
- “The Batman” Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
- “Elvis” David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
- “Top Gun: Maverick” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Who will win: Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)
Who should win: Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
Upset: Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor (“Elvis”), Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor (“Top Gun: Maverick”)
Lowdown: Music movies such as “Elvis” always have a shot here, but the prestige of “All Quiet” with some exemplary sound design and mixing work should be enough to give it the win. “All Quiet” also beat both “Elvis” and “Top Gun: Maverick” in this category at the BAFTAs.
ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
- “Avatar: The Way of Water” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
- “The Batman” Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
- “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
- “Top Gun: Maverick” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
Who will win: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett (“Avatar: The Way of Water”)
Who should win: Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Upset: None
Lowdown: As with Ke Huy Quan in Supporting Actor, the easiest prediction of the night. If “Avatar: The Way of Water” somehow isn’t announced as the winner, jaws will literally be on the floor. Literally.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- “All Quiet on the Western Front” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
- “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Written by Rian Johnson
- “Living” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
- “Top Gun: Maverick” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
- “Women Talking” Screenplay by Sarah Polley
Who will win: Sarah Polley
Who should win: Sarah Polley
Upset: Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stoke
Lowdown: The Academy clearly respects “All Quiet,” but we think they appreciate Polley’s work on “Woman Talking” more. Could go either way.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- “The Banshees of Inisherin” Written by Martin McDonagh
- “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
- “The Fabelmans” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
- “Tár” Written by Todd Field
- “Triangle of Sadness” Written by Ruben Östlund
Who will win: The Daniels
Who should win: Martin McDonagh, Ruben Östlund
Upset: Martin McDonagh, Todd Field
Lowdown: Best Picture winners almost always win their respective screenplay category. That won’t change in 2023.
The 95th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, October 12 at 5 PM PT/ 8 PM ET and will broadcast live on ABC.
