Mercifully, the 97th Academy Awards season is about to come to a close. A year where three “late” entries impacted the race more than expected (“Wicked,” “Nosferatu,” “A Complete Unknown”) and politics may influence several winners more than expected (and not necessarily in the best way). One thing is for sure, Oscars 2025 is still going to end up being “Conclave” vs. “Anora,” a Best Picture showdown in the works since the former was first screened in September. It appears all the conjecture over “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown” or even “Wicked” being crowned was just a flock of red herrings.
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Granted, the race may seem closer than it really is (or, since voting ended over a week ago, “was”). After “Conclave” won the BAFTA Award for Best Film two weekends ago and the SAG Ensemble Award on Sunday, momentum appeared to be heading in the Focus Features’ releases favor. And, to be fair, Edward Berger’s hit thriller could absolutely take the most prestigious prize in entertainment, Best Picture. But, if you were making a bet in Vegas you should put your money on “Anora.” Sean Baker’s Palm d’Or winner took the DGA and the PGA. The films that lost after solely taking those honors (“1917,” “La La Land,” “Brokeback Mountain,” “Saving Private Ryan,” “Apollo 13”) either didn’t hit the heartstrings, faded or peaked too early, or couldn’t handle a monsoon of growing historic enthusiasm for another nominee (see “Parasite”).
And the fact the PGA and the Oscars both have the preferential vote and eight of the same 10 nominees sort of matters too. “Anora” may not be every voter’s top choice, but you rarely hear anyone saying they purposefully placed it at the end of their ballot. And, yes, many voters absolutely and strategically use their ranked power as they see fit.
Of course, we would love it if “Conclave” won or “The Brutalist” surprised. Shoot, we’re not massive fans but “I’m Still Here” shocking would be entertaining as heck (at least on social media).
One final warning before you fill out your Oscar ballots and try to win that viewing party pool. There will never be any official numbers from The Academy, but it’s hard to find anyone not complaining about how few members participated in the shorts voting this year. The short categories are almost always a crapshoot, but if you want to be safe we’d suggest predicting the most safe, basic of the bunch, because that’s the horrifying feedback we’ve gotten from the members we can find who actually voted in those categories this year.
Without any further delay, your final 2025 Oscars winners predictions.
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Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody
The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet
A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo
Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes
Conclave
Sebastian Stan
The Apprentice
Who will win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
Who should win: Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave” or Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Upset: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Lowdown: Chalamet had his moment at the SAG Awards, but BAFTA winner Brody should take this. If Fiennes wins, “Conclave” has picture in the bag.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov
Anora
Kieran Culkin
A Real Pain
Edward Norton
A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce
The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong
The Apprentice
Who will win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Who should win: Kiran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Upset: Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Lowdown: We had to look up the last “real” competitive nomination for this performance Culkin has lost. It was the Gotham Awards on Dec. 2nd. He ain’t losing this one.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo
Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón
Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison
Anora
Demi Moore
The Substance
Fernanda Torres
I’m Still Here
Who will win: Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Who should win: Mikey Madison, “Anora,” Demi Moore, “The Substance,” or Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Upset: Demi Moore, “The Substance,” Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Lowdown: Here’s the thing. “The Substance” was my personal No. 1 movie of 2025. It’s pretty much a masterpiece. Nothing would make me happier than for Moore to win for her performance (even if her co-star Margaret Qualley was arguably better). But “Anora” is likely your Best Picture winner and that should get the BAFTA champ over the top. That being said, it’s insanely close. Especially if the supposed surge for Torres is real.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro
A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande
Wicked
Felicity Jones
The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini
Conclave
Zoe Saldaña
Emilia Pérez
Who will win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Perez”
Who should win: Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Upset: Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Lowdown: Saldaña has escaped the “Perez” backlash. She’s always been the best part of the movie and should add this win to her BAFTA, SAG and Cannes-winning collection.
Animated Feature Film
Flow
Nominees to be determined
Inside Out 2
Kelsey Mann and Mark Nielsen
Memoir of a Snail
Adam Elliot and Liz Kearney
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Nominees to be determined
The Wild Robot
Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann
Who will win: “The Wild Robot”
Who should win: “Flow” or “The Wild Robot”
Upset: “Flow”
Lowdown: Listen, the Latvian wonder has a shot, but “The Wild Robot” has taken every precursor that overlaps with membership including the PGA Award, and “Wallace & Gromit” won BAFTA (where “Flow” was seen as a potential upset). This would be DreamWorks Animation’s first Oscar in this category since “Shrek” took the first trophy back in 2002 (we’re still smarting over “How To Train Your Dragon” losing to “Toy Story 3” in 2011).
Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men
Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi
Magic Candies
Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio
Wander to Wonder
Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper
Yuck!
Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet
Who will win: “Magic Candles”
Who should win: “In the Shadow of Cypress”
Upset: “Beautiful Men,” “Yuck!”
Lowdown: This is a very impressive class of animated shorts. In another year, any of them could win. “Wander to Wonder” is super creative, but perhaps a bit too gross and out-there to pull off a win in this competition (it also features a real human being in some shots which won’t help). “Yuck!” has the most endearing storyline, but perhaps the simplest animation (although the color scheme is superb). “In the Shadow of Cypress” is the most cinematic and generates genuine tension. Its intentionally ambiguous ending may hinder the win, however. “Beautiful Men” packs a lot of pertinent themes about masculinity into its short runtime and may appeal to the voters the most, but it’s also the most serious of the five. We’re not super confident about it winning, so we’re going with the imaginative and sweet “Magic Candles.” Voters tend to go “cute” and heartwarming in this category (almost to a fault). And between “Candles” and “Yuck!” the former feels like the more likely choice.
Cinematography
The Brutalist
Lol Crawley
Dune: Part Two
Greig Fraser
Emilia Pérez
Paul Guilhaume
Maria
Ed Lachman
Nosferatu
Jarin Blaschke
Who will win: Lol Crawley, “The Brutalist”
Who should win: Jarin Blaschke, “Nosferatu”
Upset: Ed Lachman, “Maria”
Lowdown: Lachman’s inaugural win at the ASC is notable, but it was also a relatively unusual circumstance with a seven-nominee field (the first time since 2014). The ASC has also only lined up with The Academy’s pick six times over the past decade. Those aren’t ideal odds. Instead, we’re going with the BAFTA winner which has only deviated from AMPAS once in the same time frame. That being said, we wouldn’t be mad at the legendary Lachman finally earning that Oscar statue (or Blaschke surprising).
Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Arianne Phillips
Conclave
Lisy Christl
Gladiator II
Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
Nosferatu
Linda Muir
Wicked
Paul Tazewell
Who will win: Paul Tazewell, “Wicked”
Who should win: Paul Tazewell, “Wicked”
Upset: Linda Muir, “Nosferatu”
Lowdown: One of the easiest picks of the night. Tazewell is 100% taking this. He’ll be 3/4 of the way to EGOT by the end of the night. Can a Costume Designer win a Grammy? Asking for a friend.
Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries
Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin
No Other Land
Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham
Porcelain War
Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPre’ Pesmen
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety
Sugarcane
Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn
Who will win: “No Other Land”
Who should win: “No Other Land”
Upset: “Sugarcane,” “Porcellian War,” or “Black Box Diaries”
Lowdown: “No Other Land” should win, but…we are wary based on the qualifying to vote. If not, “Sugarcane,” “Porcellian War,” or “Black Box Diaries” all have a shot.
Documentary Short Film
Death by Numbers
Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard
I Am Ready, Warden
Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp
Incident
Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven
Instruments of a Beating Heart
Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington
Who will win: “I Am Ready, Warden”
Who should win: “Incident”
Upset: “Incident,” “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Lowdown: It’s a close race between “Incident” and “I Am Ready, Warden,” but the latter – in theory – is more emotional, but the former is intensely visceral. A true flip ’em. That being said, “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” is the sort of crowdpleaser that could surprise.
Film Editing
Anora
Sean Baker
The Brutalist
David Jancso
Conclave
Nick Emerson
Emilia Pérez
Juliette Welfling
Wicked
Myron Kerstein
Who will win: Nick Emerson, “Conclave”
Who should win: Marco Costa, “Challengers”…oh, wait
Upset: Sean Baker, “Anora” or Juliette Welfling, “Emilia Perez”
Lowdown: Emerson is the likely – emphasis on “likely” – winner here, but our gut tells us to look for a surprise. And that doesn’t necessarily mean Baker taking it either.
International Feature Film
Brazil
I’m Still Here
Denmark
The Girl with the Needle
France
Emilia Pérez
Germany
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Latvia
Flow
Who will win: “I’m Still Here”
Who should win: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
Upset: “Emilia Perez” or “Flow”
Lowdown: If you want to be safe, vote for Jacques Audiard’s musical. But momentum may be behind Brazil’s “I’m Still Here.” The love is real and we think it plays better with the older voters who tend to watch all of the International Film nominees and can vote.
