Six days. That’s it. Today, Thursday, January 2 through Tuesday, January, 7. Six full days for members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to vote for the nominees for the 2020 Oscars. This rare shortened season has been a knockout in many regards. Fewer controversies this year (so far, at least), but the barrage of campaigning has been hard to ignore. And, as always, there is nervousness all around.
As we noted earlier this week if any film is likely to have an Oscars “comeback” in terms of key nominations its Greta Gerwig’s “Little Women”. Moreover, Bong Joon Ho’s “Parasite” may just be one acting nomination away from potentially making Oscar history. That being said, the Academy loves to throw some surprises every year whether it was “Phantom Thread’s” six nominations including Best Picture in 2018, “Roma’s” double-acting nominations last year or Marion Cotillard’s seemingly out of the blue Best Actress nod for “Two Days, One Night” in 2015.
READ MORE: SAG Awards Nominations 2020: Snubs and Surprises
Keeping that in mind, here are seven questions we have as members head to the polls.
Can Lupita Nyong’o and Cynthia Erivo both make the Best Actress cut?
There are three presumed Best Actress locks: Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”), Rene Zellwegger (“Judy”) and Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”). The other two slots are down to Golden Globe nominee Awkwafina (“The Farewell”), SAG Award nominee Lupita Nyong’o (“Us”), SAG, Golden Globe nominee Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”) and Golden Globe nominee Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”). Both Nyong’o and Erivo rounded out the SAG Awards field, but the last time all five SAG nominees lined up with the nominees in the Oscar Best Actress field was in 2007 (the same actresses were nominated in 2009, but Kate Winslett was recognized for two different films). That’s a long time for AMPAS and SAG to not align. Who misses the cut then? Both Universal and Focus have smartly steered their overall campaigns for “Us” and “Harriet” to push Nyong’o and Erivo respectively. And, yes, we’ll go there, why is it that the non-PoC actresses seem to be “safe”? It’s certainly not this pundit’s personal preference, but what you hear from members and the industry at large. Maybe Theron is snubbed instead? Perhaps Johansson just gets in for “Jojo Rabbit” in Supporting? Perhaps Ronan and Awkafina surprise? Is anyone safe?
Can “1917” earn an acting nomination?
If there is one prevailing accolade floating around the industry this holiday season is how impressed people are with Sam Mendes’ WWI epic drama. The film didn’t find any love at the SAG Awards, but the actors – as usual – practically ignored almost every late-arriving film to the discussion. Will the actors’ branch of AMPAS do the same? There is a lot of fluidity in the Best Actor race (more on that in a minute), but George MacKay has a slim shot at landing a nomination. Universal may look back in hindsight and recognize they might have needed to push him more. Then again the reaction to his performance has slowly simmered to the surface. It wasn’t a turn that smacked you in the face like many of the other candidates. If he does surprise with a nod than “1917” becomes a legit contender to take it all. Consider that.
Are Adam Sandler or Eddie Murphy Best Actor nominees?
Oh, another Best Actor candidate making waves I see. The field overall features, again, presumed locks such as Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”), Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”) and Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”). The remaining field includes Rober De Niro (“The Irishman”), Golden Globe nominee Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”), SAG and Golden Globe nominee Christian Bale (“Ford v. Ferrari”), SAG and Golden Globe nominee Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”), Golden Globe nominee Jonathan Pryce (“The Two Popes”), Golden Globe nominee Eddie Murphy (“Dolemite Is My Name”), Spirit Awards nominee Adam Sandler (“Uncut Gems”) and the aforementioned MacKay. The two former “SNL” stars have been knee-deep in the race since September with both A24 and Netflix making nominations for each a priority. Murphy lost Best Supporting Actor in one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history to Alan Arkin in 2007 famously walking out of the Dolby Theater immediately after. This season though, Murphy has done almost everything possible to redeem himself to the Academy. Sandler, on the other hand, has never been nominated (probably should have for “Punch-Drunk Love”), but has earned massive critical acclaim for “Gems.” The latter is also a very nice holiday hit for A24 earning $27.3 million in just nine days of wide release. Can either comedy star crack the five? Or is this just another year that makes you wonder if AMPAS should expand the acting categories to “up to” seven nominees?
Is “Pain and Glory’s” Pedro Almodovar ready to earn his second Best Director nod?
When the Best Director nominees were announced last year, one of the pleasant surprises was that “Cold War” helmer Paweł Pawlikowski was among the honorees. It was an extremely rare year where two filmmakers from a non-English speaking nation made the cut (eventual winner “Roma’s” Alfonso Cuaron was the other). As the Best Director race shapes up its important to recognize the love the industry has for Almodovar’s “Pain and Glory.” It hasn’t gotten as much consistent hype as other contenders, but its a film that is constantly brought up in conversation. That love may not be enough to earn it a Best Picture nomination as Banderas and Almodovar have not been as available to campaign as some of their counterparts. On the other hand, the much smaller and increasingly international Director’s branch may see it differently. Not only may “Parasite’s” Bong Joon Ho land in the mix but Almodovar, who earned a Best Director nod in 2003 for “Talk to Her,” could too.
Is the real “Joker” surprise in the Directing category?
One intriguing decision this year in terms of positioning has been Warner Bros. focusing on Todd Phillips for their “Joker” campaign. Granted, they certainly haven’t ignored the film as a Best Picture player or reminded voters of Phoenix’s performance, but competing studios have taken notice. In a year where Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”), Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”) and Director Bong appear to be “safe” it’s not a bad strategy. It might just result in Phillips landing a DGA nod and, at worst, they simply did right by the filmmaker that landed them one of the biggest cash cow’s of the year. At best, they land three key nods (Picture, Director and Actor) while demonstrating how they are still significant awards players in the WarnerMedia era.
Do any of the Original Song “stars” get snubbed?
Oscar producers Lynette Howell Taylor and Stephanie Allain have already seen Taylor Swift‘s Original Song contender from “Cats” not make the shortlist (not so shocking after we all saw the movie, right?). Among their telecast wishes there is likely one giant one that the Academy and ABC are also pleading to the Oscar gods for, “Please let Beyonce get nominated.” The iconic music star is in the running for her song “Spirit” from “The Lion King.” Obviously, “Into The Unknown” from “Frozen II” will earn a nomination. Having Idina Menzel have a second shot on the Oscar stage is something to promote, but Beyonce? That’s arguably much bigger. Moreover, having Elton John and Taron Egerton duet on “Rocketman’s” (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” wouldn’t hurt either. And if Pharrell gets nominated for “Letter To My Godfather” from “The Black Godfather”? Another win. But no Beyonce? No Elton John? Eke.
Will there only be seven Best Picture nominees?
“The Irishman,” “Marriage Story,” “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood,” “Jojo Rabbit,” “1917,” “Parasite” and, likely, “Little Women.” Is that it? Are those your 2020 Best Picture finalists? Last year, after a massive induction of new members, only eight films were nominated for the Academy’s top honor. This year another gigantic class has arrived and there are at least 9,000 members based on public invitations (AMPAS does not publicly state how many members are in the organization). That’s an increase of over 2,400 or so since 2017. How much is this larger pool of voters affecting the threshold to land a nomination? That math is tricky. Some consultants will tell you a film just needs 400 first-place votes. Others will say potentially 600. Whatever the case, it’s unclear whether contenders such as “The Farewell,” “Joker,” “Ford v. Ferrari,” “Bombshell,” “The Two Popes,” “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood,” “Knives Out” or even “Pain and Glory” can fill out the field. We’re guessing just seven nominees at the moment, but will very happy to be wrong.
