Hold up. Are the biggest stars actually going to be at the Independent Spirit Awards? As we revisit the nominees, potential winners Jennifer Lopez, Robert Pattinson, Adam Sandler, Renee Zellweger, Willem Dafoe, Octavia Spencer, Olivia Wilde, and Shia LaBeouf are just some of the big names that will be in attendance. Plus, the Spirits actually have a host, in Aubrey Plaza, no less, who killed it when she emceed the show last year. Listen, we’re not telling you that you should take the time to watch the Spirits on Saturday afternoon (or evening), but we’re not not telling you that either.
READ MORE: Bow Down To Your Host: Aubrey Plaza is returning to host the 2020 Spirit Awards
As for who will win the coveted pre-Oscar trophy, it’s going to be quite an interesting ceremony. A few categories pit Netflix’s “Marriage Story” (a Best Picture nominee) vs. “Uncut Gems,” a genuine A24 hit. The Spirit Awards are voted on by the members and if you pay the yearly fee, anyone can join. Keep that in mind as we make our annual predictions for the Santa Monica Beach staple.
BEST FEATURE
A Hidden Life
Producers: Elisabeth Bentley, Dario Bergesio, Grant Hill, Josh Jeter
Clemency
Producers: Timur Bekbosunov, Julian Cautherley, Bronwyn Cornelius, Peter Wong
The Farewell
Producers: Anita Gou, Daniele Melia, Andrew Miano, Peter Saraf, Marc Turtletaub, Lulu
Wang, Chris Weitz, Jane Zheng
Marriage Story
Producers: Noah Baumbach, David Heyman
Uncut Gems
Producers: Eli Bush, Sebastian Bear-McClard, Scott Rudin
Who will win: “Marriage Story”
Who should win: “The Farewell”
Upset special: “Uncut Gems”
Lowdown: This is quite a tough category. No one really knows how many people watched “Marriage Story” and “Uncut Gems” is by far the biggest hit of the bunch with $48 million to date. That being said, Noah Baumbach’s drama is the only Best Picture nominee and that “should” seal it for Netflix’s biggest Spirit Award win.
BEST FIRST FEATURE
Booksmart
Director: Olivia Wilde
Producers: Chelsea Barnard, David Distenfeld, Jessica Elbaum, Megan Ellison,
Katie Silberman
The Climb
Director/Producer: Michael Angelo Covino
Producers: Noah Lang, Kyle Marvin
Diane
Director: Kent Jones
Producers: Luca Borghese, Ben Howe, Caroline Kaplan, Oren Moverman
The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Director/Producer: Joe Talbot
Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Khaliah Neal, Christina Oh
The Mustang
Director: Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre
Producer: Ilan Goldman
See You Yesterday
Director: Stefon Bristol
Producer: Spike Lee
Who will win: “Booksmart”
Who should win: “The Last Black Man in San Francisco”
Upset special: “The Last Black Man in San Francisco,” “Mustang”
Lowdown: Olivia Wilde‘s beloved teen comedy has to win something at some point right? If not, “Last Black Man in San Francisco” will deservedly take it.
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
Burning Cane
Writer/Director/Producer: Phillip Youmans
Producers: Ojo Akinlana, Jakob Johnson, Karen Kaia Livers, Mose Mayer,
Wendell Pierce, Isaac Webb, Cassandra Youmans
Colewell
Writer/Director: Tom Quinn
Producers: Joshua Blum, Alexandra Byer, Craig Shilowich, Matthew Thurm
Give Me Liberty
Writer/Director/Producer: Kirill Mikhanovsky
Writer/Producer: Alice Austen
Producers: Val Abel, Wally Hall, Michael Manasseri, George Rush, Sergey Shtern
Premature
Writer/Director/Producer: Rashaad Ernesto Green
Writer: Zora Howard
Producer: Darren Dean, Joy Ganes
Wild Nights With Emily
Writer/Director/Producer: Madeleine Olnek
Producers: Anna Margarita Albelo, Casper Andreas, Max Rifkind-Barron
Who will win: “Give Me Liberty”
Who should win: Eh
Upset special: “Burning Cane” or “Premature”
Lowdown: This is honestly a pick ’em.
BEST DIRECTOR
Alma Har’el
Honey Boy
Lorene Scafaria
Hustlers
Julius Onah
Luce
Robert Eggers
The Lighthouse
Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Uncut Gems
Who will win: Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Who should win: Lorene Scafaria, Alma Har’el
Upset special: Lorene Scafaria, Alma Har’el
Lowdown: This is arguably the closest race of the bunch. The Safdies have more buzz these days, but Har’el made her name fighting for more inclusion and Scafaria directed the biggest hit among the nominees. The Safdies earned two nods for “Good Time” in 2017. They might be due.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach
Marriage Story
Jason Begue, Shawn Snyder
To Dust
Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Uncut Gems
Chinonye Chukwu
Clemency
Tarell Alvin McCraney
High Flying Bird
Who will win: Noah Baumbach
Who should win: Noah Baumbach
Upset special: Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Lowdown: Anyone other than Baumbach or the Safdie’s would be shocking, but we think the “Marriage Story” helmer earns his first Spirit Award here.
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Fredrica Bailey & Stefon Bristol
See You Yesterday
Hannah Bos & Paul Thureen
Driveways
Bridget Savage Cole & Danielle Krudy
Blow the Man Down
Jocelyn DeBoer & Dawn Luebbe
Greener Grass
James Montague & Craig W. Sanger
The Vast of Night
Who will win: “See You Yesterday”
Who should win: Got me
Upset special: “Blow the Man Down”
Lowdown: The fact it was released on Netflix might be “Yesterday’s” biggest advantage considering the rest of the field.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Todd Banhazl
Hustlers
Jarin Blaschke
The Lighthouse
Natasha Braier
Honey Boy
Chananun Chotrungroj
The Third Wife
Pawel Pogorzelski
Midsommar
Who will win: Blaschke
Who should win: Banhazl
Upset special: Pawel Pogorzelski, Todd Banhazl, Natasha Braier
Lowdown: Another close one, but Blaschke is the only Oscar nominee here. That being said, Pogorzelski and the power of “Midsommar’s” visuals might surprise.
BEST EDITING
Julie Béziau
The Third Wife
Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie
Uncut Gems
Tyler L. Cook
Sword of Trust
Louise Ford
The Lighthouse
Kirill Mikhanovsky
Give Me Liberty
Who will win: Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie
Who should win: Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie
Upset special: Louise Ford
Lowdown: This “should” be a pretty easy win for the Safdie’s. If not, they’ve got a bumpy ride ahead of them.
BEST FEMALE LEAD
Karen Allen
Colewell
Hong Chau
Driveways
Elisabeth Moss
Her Smell
Mary Kay Place
Diane
Alfre Woodard
Clemency
Renée Zellweger
Judy
Who will win: Renee Zellweger
Who should win: Alfre Woodard
Upset special: Elisabeth Moss
Lowdown: Zellweger is the easy pick here, but don’t discount that the voters might go in a less commercial direction. Woodard or Moss could absolutely upset the eventual Oscar winner.
BEST MALE LEAD
Chris Galust
Give Me Liberty
Kelvin Harrison Jr.
Luce
Robert Pattinson
The Lighthouse
Matthias Schoenaerts
The Mustang
Adam Sandler
Uncut Gems
Who will win: Adam Sandler
Who should win: Robert Pattinson
Upset special: Robert Pattinson
Lowdown: It’s really between Sandler and Pattinson, but the former arguably took the biggest creative leap from his usual roles. Pattinson was previously nominated for “Good Time” but lost to Timothee Chalamet in 2018. This is Sandler’s first nomination.
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Jennifer Lopez
Hustlers
Taylor Russell
Waves
Lauren “LoLo” Spencer
Give Me Liberty
Octavia Spencer
Luce
Zhao Shuzhen
The Farewell
Who will win: Jennifer Lopez
Who should win: Jennifer Lopez
Upset special: Taylor Russell, Zhao Shuzhen
Lowdown: I mean, if Lopez doesn’t win this I’m not even sure what to say anymore. Hopefully the members “get right.”
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Willem Dafoe
The Lighthouse
Noah Jupe
Honey Boy
Shia LaBeouf
Honey Boy
Jonathan Majors
The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Wendell Pierce
Burning Cane
Who will win: Shia LaBeouf
Who should win: Willem Dafoe
Upset special: Jonathan Majors, Willem Dafoe
Lowdown: Tough one. LaBeouf’s “comeback” should overcome the love for Dafoe who previously won in 2001 for “Shadow of a Vampire.”
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD
Marriage Story
Director: Noah Baumbach
Casting Directors: Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler
Ensemble Cast: Alan Alda, Laura Dern, Adam Driver, Julie Hagerty, Scarlett Johansson,
Ray Liotta, Azhy Robertson, Merritt Wever
BEST DOCUMENTARY
American Factory
Director/Producer: Steven Bognar & Julia Reichert
Producers: Julie Parker Benello, Jeff Reichert
Apollo 11
Director/Producer: Todd Douglas Miller
Producers: Evan Krauss, Thomas Baxley Petersen
For Sama
Director: Edward Watts
Director/Producer: Waad al-Kateab
Honeyland
Director: Tamara Kotevska
Director/Producer: Ljubo Stefanov
Producer: Atanas Georgiev
Island of the Hungry Ghosts
Director/Producer: Gabrielle Brady
Producers: Gizem Acarla, Samm Haillay, Alex Kelly, Alexander Wadouh
Who will win: Apollo 11
Who should win: Honeyland
Upset special: American Factory, Honeyland
Lowdown: This looks like another opportunity for NEON’s Oscar-snubbed doc to take home a high profile win. If not, another NEON doc, “Honeyland” or Netflix’s “American Factory” will triumph.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Invisible Life
Brazil
Director: Karim Aïnouz
Les Misérables
France
Director: Ladj Ly
Parasite
South Korea
Director: Bong Joon-Ho
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
France
Director: Céline Sciamma
Retablo
Peru
Director: Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio L.
The Souvenir
United Kingdom
Director: Joanna Hogg
Who will win: “Parasite”
Who should win: “Parasite”
Upset special: “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”
Lowdown: It’s gotta be “Parasite” right? The most critically acclaimed film of the year? The potential Oscar Best Picture winner? The biggest domestic hit among the bunch? Nothing could truly upset it, could it?
The 2020 Independent Spirit Awards will be handed out on Saturday at 5 PM ET, 2 PM PT in a live telecast on IFC.
