Hold up. Are the biggest stars actually going to be at the Independent Spirit Awards? As we revisit the nominees, potential winners Jennifer Lopez, Robert Pattinson, Adam Sandler, Renee Zellweger, Willem Dafoe, Octavia Spencer, Olivia Wilde, and Shia LaBeouf are just some of the big names that will be in attendance. Plus, the Spirits actually have a host, in Aubrey Plaza, no less, who killed it when she emceed the show last year. Listen, we’re not telling you that you should take the time to watch the Spirits on Saturday afternoon (or evening), but we’re not not telling you that either.

READ MORE: Bow Down To Your Host: Aubrey Plaza is returning to host the 2020 Spirit Awards

As for who will win the coveted pre-Oscar trophy, it’s going to be quite an interesting ceremony. A few categories pit Netflix’s “Marriage Story” (a Best Picture nominee) vs. “Uncut Gems,” a genuine A24 hit. The Spirit Awards are voted on by the members and if you pay the yearly fee, anyone can join. Keep that in mind as we make our annual predictions for the Santa Monica Beach staple.


A Hidden Life
Producers: Elisabeth Bentley, Dario Bergesio, Grant Hill, Josh Jeter

Producers: Timur Bekbosunov, Julian Cautherley, Bronwyn Cornelius, Peter Wong

The Farewell
Producers: Anita Gou, Daniele Melia, Andrew Miano, Peter Saraf, Marc Turtletaub, Lulu
Wang, Chris Weitz, Jane Zheng

Marriage Story
Producers: Noah Baumbach, David Heyman

Uncut Gems
Producers: Eli Bush, Sebastian Bear-McClard, Scott Rudin

Who will win: “Marriage Story”
Who should win: “The Farewell”
Upset special: “Uncut Gems”
Lowdown: This is quite a tough category. No one really knows how many people watched “Marriage Story” and “Uncut Gems” is by far the biggest hit of the bunch with $48 million to date. That being said, Noah Baumbach’s drama is the only Best Picture nominee and that “should” seal it for Netflix’s biggest Spirit Award win.


Director: Olivia Wilde
Producers: Chelsea Barnard, David Distenfeld, Jessica Elbaum, Megan Ellison,
Katie Silberman

The Climb
Director/Producer: Michael Angelo Covino
Producers: Noah Lang, Kyle Marvin

Director: Kent Jones
Producers: Luca Borghese, Ben Howe, Caroline Kaplan, Oren Moverman

The Last Black Man in San Francisco
Director/Producer: Joe Talbot
Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Khaliah Neal, Christina Oh

The Mustang
Director: Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre
Producer: Ilan Goldman

See You Yesterday
Director: Stefon Bristol
Producer: Spike Lee

Who will win: “Booksmart”
Who should win: “The Last Black Man in San Francisco”
Upset special: “The Last Black Man in San Francisco,” “Mustang”
Lowdown: Olivia Wilde‘s beloved teen comedy has to win something at some point right? If not, “Last Black Man in San Francisco” will deservedly take it.


Burning Cane
Writer/Director/Producer: Phillip Youmans
Producers: Ojo Akinlana, Jakob Johnson, Karen Kaia Livers, Mose Mayer,
Wendell Pierce, Isaac Webb, Cassandra Youmans

Writer/Director: Tom Quinn
Producers: Joshua Blum, Alexandra Byer, Craig Shilowich, Matthew Thurm

Give Me Liberty
Writer/Director/Producer: Kirill Mikhanovsky
Writer/Producer: Alice Austen
Producers: Val Abel, Wally Hall, Michael Manasseri, George Rush, Sergey Shtern

Writer/Director/Producer: Rashaad Ernesto Green
Writer: Zora Howard
Producer: Darren Dean, Joy Ganes

Wild Nights With Emily
Writer/Director/Producer: Madeleine Olnek
Producers: Anna Margarita Albelo, Casper Andreas, Max Rifkind-Barron

Who will win: “Give Me Liberty”
Who should win: Eh
Upset special: “Burning Cane” or “Premature”
Lowdown: This is honestly a pick ’em.


Alma Har’el
Honey Boy

Lorene Scafaria

Julius Onah

Robert Eggers
The Lighthouse

Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Uncut Gems

Who will win: Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Who should win: Lorene Scafaria, Alma Har’el
Upset special: Lorene Scafaria, Alma Har’el
Lowdown: This is arguably the closest race of the bunch. The Safdies have more buzz these days, but Har’el made her name fighting for more inclusion and Scafaria directed the biggest hit among the nominees. The Safdies earned two nods for “Good Time” in 2017. They might be due.


Noah Baumbach
Marriage Story

Jason Begue, Shawn Snyder
To Dust

Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Uncut Gems

Chinonye Chukwu

Tarell Alvin McCraney
High Flying Bird

Who will win: Noah Baumbach
Who should win: Noah Baumbach
Upset special: Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie & Josh Safdie
Lowdown: Anyone other than Baumbach or the Safdie’s would be shocking, but we think the “Marriage Story” helmer earns his first Spirit Award here.


Fredrica Bailey & Stefon Bristol
See You Yesterday

Hannah Bos & Paul Thureen

Bridget Savage Cole & Danielle Krudy
Blow the Man Down

Jocelyn DeBoer & Dawn Luebbe
Greener Grass

James Montague & Craig W. Sanger
The Vast of Night

Who will win: “See You Yesterday”
Who should win: Got me
Upset special: “Blow the Man Down”
Lowdown: The fact it was released on Netflix might be “Yesterday’s” biggest advantage considering the rest of the field.


Todd Banhazl

Jarin Blaschke
The Lighthouse

Natasha Braier
Honey Boy

Chananun Chotrungroj
The Third Wife

Pawel Pogorzelski

Who will win: Blaschke
Who should win: Banhazl
Upset special: Pawel Pogorzelski, Todd Banhazl, Natasha Braier
Lowdown: Another close one, but Blaschke is the only Oscar nominee here. That being said, Pogorzelski and the power of “Midsommar’s” visuals might surprise.


Julie Béziau
The Third Wife

Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie
Uncut Gems

Tyler L. Cook
Sword of Trust

Louise Ford
The Lighthouse

Kirill Mikhanovsky
Give Me Liberty

Who will win: Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie
Who should win: Ronald Bronstein & Benny Safdie
Upset special: Louise Ford
Lowdown: This “should” be a pretty easy win for the Safdie’s. If not, they’ve got a bumpy ride ahead of them.


Karen Allen

Hong Chau

Elisabeth Moss
Her Smell

Mary Kay Place

Alfre Woodard

Renée Zellweger

Who will win: Renee Zellweger
Who should win: Alfre Woodard
Upset special: Elisabeth Moss
Lowdown: Zellweger is the easy pick here, but don’t discount that the voters might go in a less commercial direction. Woodard or Moss could absolutely upset the eventual Oscar winner.


Chris Galust
Give Me Liberty

Kelvin Harrison Jr.

Robert Pattinson
The Lighthouse

Matthias Schoenaerts
The Mustang

Adam Sandler
Uncut Gems

Who will win: Adam Sandler
Who should win: Robert Pattinson
Upset special: Robert Pattinson
Lowdown: It’s really between Sandler and Pattinson, but the former arguably took the biggest creative leap from his usual roles. Pattinson was previously nominated for “Good Time” but lost to Timothee Chalamet in 2018. This is Sandler’s first nomination.


Jennifer Lopez

Taylor Russell

Lauren “LoLo” Spencer
Give Me Liberty

Octavia Spencer

Zhao Shuzhen
The Farewell

Who will win: Jennifer Lopez
Who should win: Jennifer Lopez
Upset special: Taylor Russell, Zhao Shuzhen
Lowdown: I mean, if Lopez doesn’t win this I’m not even sure what to say anymore. Hopefully the members “get right.”


Willem Dafoe
The Lighthouse

Noah Jupe
Honey Boy

Shia LaBeouf
Honey Boy

Jonathan Majors
The Last Black Man in San Francisco

Wendell Pierce
Burning Cane

Who will win: Shia LaBeouf
Who should win: Willem Dafoe
Upset special: Jonathan Majors, Willem Dafoe
Lowdown: Tough one. LaBeouf’s “comeback” should overcome the love for Dafoe who previously won in 2001 for “Shadow of a Vampire.”

Marriage Story
Director: Noah Baumbach
Casting Directors: Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler
Ensemble Cast: Alan Alda, Laura Dern, Adam Driver, Julie Hagerty, Scarlett Johansson,
Ray Liotta, Azhy Robertson, Merritt Wever


American Factory
Director/Producer: Steven Bognar & Julia Reichert
Producers: Julie Parker Benello, Jeff Reichert

Apollo 11
Director/Producer: Todd Douglas Miller
Producers: Evan Krauss, Thomas Baxley Petersen

For Sama
Director: Edward Watts
Director/Producer: Waad al-Kateab

Director: Tamara Kotevska
Director/Producer: Ljubo Stefanov
Producer: Atanas Georgiev

Island of the Hungry Ghosts
Director/Producer: Gabrielle Brady
Producers: Gizem Acarla, Samm Haillay, Alex Kelly, Alexander Wadouh

Who will win: Apollo 11
Who should win: Honeyland
Upset special: American Factory, Honeyland
Lowdown: This looks like another opportunity for NEON’s Oscar-snubbed doc to take home a high profile win. If not, another NEON doc, “Honeyland” or Netflix’s “American Factory” will triumph.


Invisible Life
Director: Karim Aïnouz

Les Misérables
Director: Ladj Ly

South Korea
Director: Bong Joon-Ho

Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Director: Céline Sciamma

Director: Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio L.

The Souvenir
United Kingdom
Director: Joanna Hogg

Who will win: “Parasite”
Who should win: “Parasite”
Upset special: “Portrait of a Lady on Fire”
Lowdown: It’s gotta be “Parasite” right? The most critically acclaimed film of the year? The potential Oscar Best Picture winner? The biggest domestic hit among the bunch? Nothing could truly upset it, could it?

The 2020 Independent Spirit Awards will be handed out on Saturday at 5 PM ET, 2 PM PT in a live telecast on IFC.