As news broke that SAG-AFTRA and AMPTP had come to an agreement and Hollywood would finally be heading back to work again, Harris Dickinson and Zac Efron were walking the red carpet of the premiere of their latest film, “The Iron Claw,” in Dallas. As an A24 release, “Iron Claw” was able to sign an interim agreement with SAG so the pair, along with their co-stars Jeremy Allen White and Staney Simons, have been some of the few actors able to promote their films. But even they were overjoyed at the news. And let me tell you, publicists, actors reps and actors themselves have been on the phone, zooms and E-mail chains getting talent back on the awards circuit ASAP. If the 2023-2024 Oscar season was at half speed the last few months it is gonna be pedal to the medal with approximately two months to go before nomination voting begins.
READ MORE: SAG-AFTRA & AMPTP Have A Deal: Six Months Of Hollywood Strikes Appears To Be Over
What you’ll begin to notice first is actors actually promoting their projects and other films they like on social media (Andrea Riseborough, who?). And those popular Actors on Actors and Actors Roundtable videos (which barely pop with AMPAS members but help with box office) are still coming, if not later than usual. But if you’re a SAG, general guild or Academy member, expect a deluge in new screening options with all sorts of talent at the ready. Especially since many of them won’t have new projects to film until January. Yes, not only are a ton of potential nominees eager to campaign, but most don’t have to schedule it around traditional year-end work commitments. The biggest benafactor? The 2023 Gotham Awards which should have a red carpet to die for when it opens its doors the Monday after Thanksgiving.
Despite all this obvious excitement, many AMPAS members have been watching contenders on their screening portal and at in-person events. Moreover, many members of the acting branch have attended official Academy screenings and gotten themsevles to film festivals on their own such as Telluride, New York, the Hamptons, AFI Fest and Mill Valley. Throw in the fact that guild screenings have been more attended this year – in general – than many publicists can remember (below the line and DGA members were essentially waiting out both strikes), we are potentially in the most keyed in Oscar race since everyone was stuck at home during the pandemic season of 2020-2021. And, with “Iron Claw’s” debut, another movie has jumped into the fray.
Based on the true story of Kevin Von Erich and the Von Erich wrestling family, “Iron Claw” is a genuine tearjerker focusing on brotherly love that even stir feelings from a single child. From an awards perspective, the Sean Durkin written and directed movie is one of three to four films that will battle it out for the 9th and 10th Best Picture nominations. Director of Photography Mátyás Erdély (“Son of Saul”) has a chance at a Cinematography nomination while Matthew Hannam has an outside shot in Editing for some fantastic cutting overall and, in particular, the wrestling scenes (which look more real than what you see from the WWE on television).
The “Iron Claw” star who could make the biggest awards season statement is Zac Efron for reasons that will become more apparent when you see the film (reviews are embargoed at the moment until week of opening). There are three likely locks for a Best Actor nod right now, Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), and Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”). Trying to secure those two final slots are Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), Andrew Scott (“All of Us Strangers”), Paul Giamtti (“The Holdovers”), and Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”). There are also some other fringe players, but that’s the field Efron is jumping into. And, because of one certain scene we won’t spoil, he might have a leg up on some of his fellow contenders.
Maybe.
Seguing back to the general Best Picture race, not much has changed since the fall festival trifecta. At this point, “Oppenheimer,” “Poor Things” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” have the best shot at taking the crown. “Anatomy of a Fall” should not be ignored as a possible winner and we’re expecting some eventual groundswell from non-AMPAS members for “Barbie” (which is still gonna get a ton of nominations and should easily take Original Song). The only big change from our last rundown is “American Fiction” cracking the top 10 (we still have a gut feeling it’s not cinematic enough, but hey, we don’t vote). And, as previously noted, the final two slots are potentially in flux. Or, it may turn out they never were in the first place.
Keeping all that in mind, here’s your most up to date Contender Countdown on the 2023 Best Picture race.
November 9, 2023
4 “Anatomy of a Fall”
Pay attention to this one. In a close race like this, it has enough genuine momentum to become the preferential ballot winner. Oh, and that makes it potential preferential ballot winner no. 2.
6 “Zone of Interest”
Has solidified its place in the 10 over the past two months. Now, will Jonathan Glazer lock a Directing nom by coming to the U.S. and campaigning?
7 “Past Lives”
Like “Zone,” there is passionate support for this one. Watch out for Greta Lee in the Best Actress race. Things are precolating.
8 “American Fiction”
Things are looking good for Cord Jefferson’s TIFF People’s Choice Award winner. Not sure Jeffrey Wright or Sterling K. Brown can crack the acting races, but Picture and Adapted Screenplay nominations seem likely.
9 “Maestro”
Color us concerned. Plus, Netflix has the crowd-pleasing “Society of Snow” which is right there winning audience awards left and right.
10 “The Holdovers”
Reviews have been stronger than expected. Needs to expand well at the box office in the weeks ahead.
11 “All of Us Strangers”
This close to making the cut. The British slash BAFTA crossover contingent may be the difference.
12 “The Iron Claw”
Again it’s a tearjerker. For a prestige movie, that’s half the battle when it comes to Oscar.
13 “Air”
Longtime awards consultants will tell you it’s a perfect straight-down-the-middle Best Picture nominee player and Amazon MGM Studios potentially have Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, and Jason Bateman to campaign it. That trio is George Clooney-John Travolta level in terms of working a room. Will they jump in?
14 “The Color Purple”*
We’ll know soon enough, but this may really just be a massive actor play for Fantasia Barrino, Danielle Brooks, Taraji P. Henson and Colman Domingo. Then again, they have Oprah as a very motivated producer to push for that BP nom.
15 “May December”
It’s likely just a screenplay as well as Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore nominations play, but expect Netflix to continue to push this one hard for Best Picture as well.
16 “Priscilla”
If its box office continues to perform over expectations, it has a slim shot, but this is likely just still an actor nomination consideration for Cailee Spaeny and Jacob Elordi and perhaps a Best Costumes nomination.
17 “Origin”
Even with Ava DuVernay and her cast promoting it while other big names couldn’t, the buzz is minimal. Something has gotten lost with this one.
18 “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Are AMPAS voters genuinely considering this anymore? At this point Sony Pictures might just need to worry about beating Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron” for Animated Feature.
19 “Saltburn”
Rosamund Pike, Barry Keoghan, and Cinematographer Linus Sandgren could crack their respective fields. Anything else, including buzzworthy box office, is gravy.
20 “Ferrari”
Penelope Cruz and the Sound team and Editor have a shot, but a Best Picture nom? No, that’s simply not happening.
21 “Dumb Money”
The absolute “would’ve been, could’ve been” of the 2023-2024 Oscar season if the cast could open the movie and campaign the movie. Now? Too late.
22 “Napoleon”*
I mean, sure.
*Has not been screened at publication.