The SAG (Screen Actors Guild) nominees are always the most key bellweather of Oscar when it comes to the acting awards and much to no one’s surprise they’re pretty similar to the Golden Globe nominations (though more “Hurt Locker” this time). Jason Reitman’s “Up In the Air,” Quentin Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds,” and Lee Daniels’ “Precious” lead the pack each taking three nominations. More analysis shortly, but we’re pleased here for the most part (though bummed “Bright Star” was totally shut-out; we presume this means game over for the Jane Campion film at the Oscars which is a shame). This pretty much puts “Inglourious Basterds” on getting a lock for a Best Picture nomination (as if you had any doubt by now).
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Nine”
“Precious”
Even though this is a category the Oscars don’t have, this award is no doubt the most important when it comes to predicting the Academy Awards, and not for acting mind you, but for Best Picture. Over the last ten years, they’ve called it right six times including last year with “Slumdog Millionaire” and the year before with “No Country For Old Men.” This is very concerning considering the absence of “Up in the Air,” despite it earning three nominations elsewhere and featuring additional support from the likes of Jason Bateman, Danny McBride and Zach Galifianakis. This is a huge snub, and taking its place in the lineup appears to be “An Education”, a film that has seemed to only get recognition this award season through its lead actress, Carey Mulligan.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney, “Up In The Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”
Jeff Bridges and George Clooney lead the pack, like Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn last year, while it seems Colin Firth and Morgan Freeman will be getting Oscar noms as well. This leaves one spot, one that has seemed to go to a different person with each awards presentation. The Globes gave it to Tobey Maguire, while others went for Daniel Day-Lewis, but we believe the dark-horse is deservedly represented here with Jeremy Renner. Renner made “The Hurt Locker” what it is, and what it is is a film that has a hell of a good shot at winning Best Picture, which helps Renner out a lot. It doesn’t mean he has a lock though, and we could easily see Matt Damon in the 5th slot for “The Informant,” or maybe even the long-shot, Viggo Mortensen, for “The Road.” But this move is yet another strong vote of confidence for “The Hurt Locker” overall.
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe,“Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Sandra Bullock remains in the running, while Emily Blunt didn’t make the cut this time. Instead, they nominated Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia, a move you can expect Oscar to replicate. Everything is as we (and you) expected (it will probably be a Sidibe vs. Mulligan showdown in the end).
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
These are the exact same nominees as the Golden Globes, and we don’t expect them to change a bit for the Academy Awards. Tucci is lucky to be on the list as his character was more of a caricature, while Damon might have to settle for a supporting nom instead of a leading one. Again, we’re very excited to see Woody Harrelson be included, but it’s not going to matter since Christoph Waltz is going to win. Why is it the Supporting Actor category, despite having the best nominees, always has the shoe-in? From Heath Ledger last year to Javier Bardem the year before, it seems it’s never a surprise, but if it was up to us, Harrelson would win for outstanding performance in “The Messenger”
OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up In The Air”
Anna Kendrick, “Up In The Air”
Diane Kruger, “Inglourious Basterds”
Mo’Nique, “Precious”
These are also the exact same nominees as the Golden Globes with one small exception…Diane Kruger?! We’ve already seen the hate begin against Kruger, with fans citing Melanie Laurent was better, but we’ll stand by the SAG’s decision. If anything, it provided the only true surprise out of the whole bunch even if it’s one Oscar won’t go for. Unfortunately, it did bump Julianne Moore out, which is a shame considering she’s so good yet under-appreciated. The two gals from “Up in the Air” will probably cancel each other out, while we think we can count out Penelope Cruz since she won it last year. Like with the supporting males, this category does have a front-runner, and that is Mo’Nique for “Precious.” She’s already won a number of awards for her performance and since Gabby Sidibe won’t win for actress, someone’s got to represent right? This one’s probably a lock unless Mo’Nique herself fucks it up with her big, brassy mouth. — Jonathan Helms
