Best Picture will be tough, but there is no category that’s more competitive than Best Actor.  “Marriage Story’s” Adam Driver and “Joker’s” Joaquin Phoenix are in theory in (although anything could happen). The rest?  Not one, not two, not three, but at least four major performances are going to get the snub.  Any other year Christian Bale (“Ford v. Ferrari”Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”) and Taron Edgerton (“Rocketman”) would be easy nominees. This year there’s just too many other contenders to go there…yet.   [Updated October 21]

LIKELY NOMINEES
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”

BATTLING
Christian Bale, “Ford v Ferrari”
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Robert De Niro, “The Irishman”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Taron Edgerton, “Rocketman”
Robert Pattinson, “The Lighthouse”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Pope”
Mark Ruffalo, “Dark Waters”
Adam Sandler, “Uncut Gems”

LONGSHOTS
Matt Damon, “Ford v Ferrari”
Brad Pitt, “Ad Astra”
Eddie Murphy, “Dolemite Is My Name”
Timothee Chalamet, “The King”
Roman Griffin Davis, “Jojo Rabbit”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Aeronauts”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Queen and Slim”
Ian McKellen, “The Good Liar”

More Oscar predictions 

Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Director