‘Conclave’ Takes BAFTA Crown And Says, “Now Just Wait A Minute”

Let’s be clear. If you are headed to Las Vegas and want to put money down on who is going to win Best Picture two weeks from now, you should bet on Sean Baker’s “Anora.” The NEON release has already won the top DGA, PGA, and WGA awards honors. That often is enough to lock it all up. But Sunday morning, Los Angeles time, awards season took another turn, as it often does, and Edward Berger’s “Conclave” triumphed by snagging Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards. Not a nothing moment. Especially as Oscar voting wraps up today.

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The Focus Features release also took Adapted Screenplay, Best British Film, and, wait for it…Editing. But that wasn’t all. Baker lost Best Director to Brady Corbet – who everyone thought would win the DGA – and “The Brutalist” also snagged four awards overall including Best Actor for Adrien Brody, Original Score, and Cinematography.

“Anora” only took two. It won Best Casting, an Academy Awards category beginning next year, and, in a mild surprise, Mikey Madison took Best Actress over “The Substance’s” Demi Moore. And, on a side note, this may be the only acting category with any drama left on Oscar night as Kieran Culkin, Zoe Saldana, and Brody seem to have Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Best Actor, wrapped up. 

Again, not a nothing moment, but a couple of key points for non-industry awards watchers. Also known as “Do not overreact to these events.”

First, despite a genuinely substantial crossover in membership, the BAFTA Best Film winner has only lined up with The Academy’s Best Picture winner seven times since 2010. That’s not just under 50% of the time. More disconcerting, over the past decade it’s only happened twice, “Nomadland” and “Oppenheimer.” Now if this was the late ’90s or anytime between 2009 and 2014 we’d say Focus should be very excited, but they know the drill. They are very aware of how BAFTA and AMPAS have been trending and that the PGA has been the current kingmaker.

Secondly, the DGA and PGA Awards wins came immediately before Oscar voting began. After almost two weeks of a seemingly never-ending “Emilia Perez” controversy, many on the fence AMPAS members might have seen those trophies as a final “it’s OK to vote for the stripper movie”* or at least rank it second or third on their ballot. That is significant. 

*Not that most care although I’m constantly surprised by how many refer to it as “the stripper movie”

Third, there is one major precursor left. The SAG Awards are this upcoming Sunday. It is not as historically accurate as the PGA, but the last three Best Picture winners also took the SAG Ensemble honor. If “Anora” loses to “Conclave” or even “Wicked,” things are less settled than they appear today. If “Anora” takes Ensemble and Madison wins Best Actress over Moore again? 

Game. Set. Match.

Sigh, that just reminds us how “Challengers” should be a Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Directing, and Sound nominee. Oh, well. 

At least there is still some Best Picture suspense in the air. For now, anyway.

Here’s your likely second-to-last Contender Countdown of the 2025 season… (Unless “Anora” wins SAG and, well…)

February 18

1 “Anora”
It’s probably over. I mean, it’s over, right?

2 “Conclave”
So, you’re saying there’s a chance…

3 “The Brutalist”
Brady Corbet and Adrien Brody? Maybe Cinematography and Original Score? Can’t be mad at that.

4 “Wicked”
SAG could be a lifeline.

5 “Emilia Perez”
Zoe Saldana, Original Song and, likely, International Film, will mercifully put this campaign to an end.

6 “I’m Still Here”
Really needed to win that BAFTA Non-English Language category. The nominations might just be the wins. Now will Fernando Torres appear in the new “Harry Potter” TV series or land an MCU role first?

7 “A Complete Unknown”
Would it win an Oscar category if it had been released earlier? Not that it was even possible. Or was it always this year’s “Up in the Air,” “The Irishman,” or “Killers of the Flower Moon”?

8 “The Substance”
Demi Moore still could win, but at least Makeup and Hairstyling is right there.

9 “Dune: Part Two”
Considering the movie was released – double checks – on March 1 2024, potentially winning Sound and Visual Effects Oscars ain’t half bad.

10 “Nickel Boys”
RaMell Ross now has DGA and WGA Awards for his mantle. After this weekend, he may have a Spirit Award to add to the collection.