This is not the column I was expecting to write today. I thought this would be an energetic kick off to award season’s post-election sprint. Instead, like much of the country (well, 52% of it) Hollywood is stunned to discover Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States. When you consider Hillary Clinton won 71.5% of Los Angeles County it’s not an understatement to say this town is in shock. Frankly, it’s hard to even write this at all today.
Full disclosure, like many other Californians I spent Sunday and Monday in Las Vegas, NV canvassing for Hillary (I was certainly not alone as reportedly over 1 million people volunteered last weekend). Knocking on doors. Asking people to make sure they voted on Tuesday (if they had not already). It had to be done. Nevada is a swing state and part of that electoral college firewall Hillary supporters expected to hold. I have three young nieces. Couldn’t let them grow up in a country where Donald Trump was president. Nevada held. The rest of the firewall didn’t.
I spoke to a lot of Latina mothers. Most of whom would answer the door with their young kids by their side. This election was important to them. The fact they elected Catherine Cortez Mastro as the nation’s first Latina senator means those families have a champion who will do her best to protect them. That has to be some silver lining, right?
Now back to the reality of the season.
A publicist actually thanked me for doing an interview today where both the subject and I tried to focus on the ridiculousness their contributions to a Best Picture contender after the shocking events that occurred less than 12 hours earlier. There are still less E-mails floating today than you’d expect during a busy November. And there wasn’t a lot of laughter on the streets of Hollywood today. Things will change beginning tomorrow, however.
AFI FEST kicks off on Thursday and the Governors Awards are on Saturday night. That means a lot of contending talent will be in town and so many screenings and receptions (just as many not affiliated with AFI as those that are) it will be almost impossible to hit them all. There will be official premieres (“The Comedian,” “Patriots Day”) and first screenings of potential contenders (“Allied”). There will be lots of forced enthusiasm and more post-screening party conversations about the country’s future than who on earth is going to fill out the increasingly slim Best Actor field.
But history tells us the Oscar race never stops. Even when the world seems like it’s flipped upside down.
In that context, here are the latest Contender Countdown rankings (remember: these are currently based just on their chances of landing a Best Picture nomination).
Nov. 10, 2016
1. “La La Land”
Should still be the frontrunner. Is The Academy ready for its escapist wonder? Or will they want to make a statement? Ponder.
2. “Sully”
The last year Warner Bros. didn’t have a Best Picture nominee was in 2008.
3. “Manchester By The Sea”
Roadside Attractions and Amazon Studios’ major player finally has its LA coming out party at the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater on Monday night.
4. “Moonlight”
More timely than ever, pt. 1
5 “Hell or High Water”
More timely than ever, pt. 2
6. “Jackie”
More timely than ever, pt. 3
7. “Lion”
It’s a crowd pleaser, but that Metacritic score of 63 is dangerously low for a potential nominee. Of course, there are just nine reviews so far so it can only go up, right?
8. “Fences”
Viola Davis is your frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress. Denzel Washington is going to earn a Best Actor nomination. Is it really a Best Picture nominee?
9. “Silence”
Critics groups will see it before the end of the month. Everyone else? Good question.
10. “Hidden Figures”
There are a number of films that could potentially fill this slot. “Loving,” “Live by Night,” “20th Century Women” or even “Arrival.” Our guess is that if it’s truly good enough, this true story of three African American women who helped send the first American into orbit could benefit from a post-election revolt. Maybe. It screens for the first time this Sunday.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing – Coming Soon
Cinematography – Coming Soon
Animated Feature Film – Coming Soon
Foreign Language Film – Coming Soon
Documentary Feature – Coming Soon
Original Score – Coming Soon
Original Song – Coming Soon
Costumes – Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling – Coming Soon
Visual Effects – Coming Soon
Sound Mixing – Coming Soon
Sound Editing – Coming Soon
For more Oscar and industry insight follow Gregory Ellwood on Twitter @TheGregoryE.
