Awards season just loves drama, doesn’t it? After months of barely a peep of any real controversy, the past few weeks have seen both the Academy and – sorry, checking my notes – ah, yes, Sam Elliott come under fire. And, in the biggest surprise of all, the latter’s unexpected comments have a shot at affecting a seemingly tight Best Picture race (maybe). Let’s start with AMPAS, however, and an Oscar telecast that no amount of protesting is going to change.
READ MORE: “CODA,” “Succession” and Will Smith among big 2022 SAG Awards winners [Complete List]
When it was revealed that the Academy had decided to pull a Tony Awards and pre-record eight category announcements, the reaction was perhaps even more negative than expected (although AMPAS leadership never seems to read the room very well). Even though production insists all acceptance speeches will be shown, there was talk that the nominees from specific categories might skip the ceremony to protest (that still may happen). Following the announcement of an embarrassing COVID vaccine non-requirement policy for presenters and performers, the Academy seemed to have fumbled the ball once again. Two events have made it clear AMPAS will not be returning to the status quo for this year at least.
First, world events have shined the spotlight on a global tragedy that makes loud, public protests (the sort needed to sway the AMPAS board) look embarrassingly petty in comparison. Second, in an interview with outgoing AMPAS CEO Dawn Hudson and AMPAS President David Rubin, the former pretty much confirmed the big elephant in the room, ABC. After record-low ratings in 2021, the network is in the driver’s seat. They want a three-hour telecast and do whatever it takes to have it over by 11 PM ET. After the ceremony, there may be a loud debate whether ABC is still the best partner to continue airing the Oscars, but the 94th telecast is what it is (they have a contract for those rights through 2028, so good luck getting out of that one).
As for Mr. Elliott, well, Netflix might want to send him a bouquet of roses after his social media-friendly rant. The 2019 Oscar nominee for “A Star is Born” appeared on an episode of Marc Maron’s WTF podcast on Monday to discuss his role on the Paramount+ television series “1883.” Somehow, the subject of “The Power of the Dog” came up and Elliott, who has almost always seemed overtly congenial in public, ripped into Jane Campion’s period Western like a rattlesnake sucking the life out of a prairie dog. Not only did he refer to the movie as a “piece of s**t” but delivered what many interpreted as homophobic remarks about its subject matter. Oh, and saying he liked Campion’s previous films, but then referring to her as “this woman” was, well, a choice.
This puts the spotlight back on “Power” after it was snubbed at the SAG Awards. A ceremony where a more heartwarming film, Apple TV+’s “CODA,” took Best Ensemble and a Supporting Actor honor for Troy Kotsur. With momentum seemingly surrounding “CODA” and “Belfast,” it might be the sort of rallying cry “Power” needs to give Netflix its first Best Picture winner. Granted, you wouldn’t expect a film with 12 Oscar nominations including every major branch needed to win Best Picture to require such a boost, but there are veteran consultants without a horse in the race that will tell you they are not expecting “Power” to win. Granted, the BAFTA Awards and PGA Awards still to come, but any “Power” wins there may not be enough. Or, maybe International voters really do make the difference this time around.
As for “CODA,” listen, anything is possible, but some much-needed perspective here. Name the last film to win Best Picture without Directing and Editing nominations? Oh right, it’s never happened since those honors were incorporated into the ceremony. Name the last film to win Best Picture with three nominations or less overall? Just three. “Wings,” which won the first Best Picture Oscar in 1929, “The Broadway Melody” which took Best Picture the next year, and “Grand Hotel,” which won with no other nominations in 1932. That’s 90 years since it last happened. 90. Years.
With over three weeks till the ceremony, can you imagine what drama will hit the Oscars next? Wait, don’t answer that question.
Keeping all that in mind, here are our current standings for the Best Picture race.
March 2, 2022
1 “Belfast”
Winning BAFTA and PGA would be ideal.
2 “The Power of the Dog”
Will we refer to the Sam Elliott bump in the years to come?
3 “CODA”
Taking Best Pic would be the biggest upset of All Time.
4 “West Side Story”
Let’s just say there are…possibilities.
5 “Drive My Car”
Pay attention to the Adapted Screenplay category.
6 “Dune”
Gorgeous below the line Oscars, beautiful below the line Oscars
7 “King Richard”
Best Actor is Will Smith’s to lose…right?
8 “Don’t Look Up”
Will Leo and Jennifer show up?
9 “Licorice Pizza”
Paul Thomas Anderson and the phrase “Oscar winner.” This year or no?
10 “Nightmare Alley”
Production Design might be its big win of the night.
 hold the line on ceremony changes and could CODA actually win?){kind=link}