As Academy members drive through Los Angeles under an onslaught of FYC banners they are only days away from voting on the nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards. And while the Golden Globes delivered the lowest-rated telecast in 13 years, they did provide something of a public relations boost to a number of contenders. Moreover, if you believe the mantra “you win Best Picture in phase one,” no positive publicity is bad publicity (even when it’s coming from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association). Especially if you’re a winner like “Nomadland” and “Minari.”
Chloe Zhao’s “Nomadland” winning Best Picture – Drama (let’s be honest, Best Director was a given at this point) was something of a surprise to those parsing to the HFPA tea leaves. Members of the under-fire organization had voiced their love for “The Trial of the Chicago 7” so strongly that to many its win was almost a given. Instead, Aaron Sorkin’s drama won just Best Screenplay as, for the most part, the HFPA spread the wealth. We’re not going to say this was a win Netflix was counting on because once it gets down to the final balloting they could get a big boost from either a SAG Ensemble or PGA Award win. Then again, “Nomadland” could take PGA (and BAFTA) and, surprise, “Minari” might snag that SAG honor.
Lee Isaac Chung’s period drama has slowly been winning over the industry and Academy alike over the past two months. The SAG ensemble nomination was a major surprise (along the lines of last year’s SAG and Best Picture winner “Parasite”) and it won Foreign Language Film at the Globes (which was a ridiculous category placement) over stiff competition. And that win allowed Chung to give a smile-inducing acceptance speech with his daughter draped all over him. A moment no print ad, virtual Q&A, or standard talent interview can match.
Is the battle for Best Picture a three-horse race? Maybe. Is it a two-horse race? Probably. Is it pretty much locked up? We’ll find out in seven weeks. A lot can happen by then, but the pack is thinning.
Before jumping to this week’s rankings of the Best Picture race let’s take a moment to consider “The United States vs. Billie Holiday.” Lee Daniel’s biopic has received mixed (at best) reviews, but star Andra Day earned almost universal praise for her performance as the legendary blues singer. Day’s Globes win was an epic upset in what was likely an insanely close race. It was also a highlight for a film that has had an almost historic awards season journey. Many films have switched distributors before the season begins. “Trial” is a notable example as it went from Paramount Pictures to Netflix this past summer. But “Billie Holiday” didn’t jump from Paramount to Hulu until Christmas Eve. For months, Paramount had booked interviews, covers, photoshoots and started a comprehensive marketing plan. Outside of some third-party publicity agency consulting, all of that went out the window when the film was put in Hulu’s lap over a holiday break. The fact those working on “Billie” were able to scrape together what they have so far, deal with soul-crushing guild snubs left and right, and still find Day in contention for the final Best Actress slot is either remarkable perseverance, luck, or a little bit of both.
Here’s your Contender Countdown for March 2, 2021.
1 “Nomadland”
Steady, steady.
2 “Minari”
Don’t be surprised.
3 “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Does Netflix push harder or back off and let it all breathe? In LA, with outdoor everywhere, it feels a bit much at the moment. Tough call.
4 “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
The nomination is set. The priority might need to become landing Viola Davis her second statue.
5 “One Night In Miami”
Is Original Song its best shot for a win?
6 “The Father”
It might not be Olivia vs. Glenn, round 2, but Olivia vs. Youn Yuh-jung.
7 “Mank”
Is it this year’s “The Irishman” or “Carol?” Not bad company to be in either way, except one of those two dramas didn’t make earn a Best Picture nod.
8 “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Keep talking to members who are including it in their top 5. Might just be the surprise Best Picture nominee.
9 “Promising Young Woman”
Carey Mulligan is still the likely Best Actress frontrunner and if Emerald Ferrell can land Directing and Original Screenplay nods? Win, win, win for Focus.
10 “Soul”
Potentially the Original Score pacesetter. It’s still got a shot at a Best Pic nod too.
On the outside looking in:
“News of the World”
A safe pick by many, but where’s the passion? If it makes noise when the BAFTA nods are revealed we’ll gladly change our tune.
“Da 5 Bloods”
So you’re telling me Netflix is going to not only make history with three Best Picture nominees but actually land four of them? Even in pandemic times, we’re not sure any studio can accomplish that.
2021 Oscar Contenders and Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
