Music (Original Score)
Alexandre Desplat, “Frankenstein”
Ludwig Göransson, “Sinners”
Johnny Greenwood, “One Battle After Another”
Daniel Lopatin, “Marty Supreme”
Max Richter, “Hamnet”
Almost there: Kangding Ray, “Sirat,” Hans Zimmer, “F1,” Jerskin Fendrix, “Bugonia”
Lowdown: Ray’s fantastic work on “Sirat” is probably too unconventional for even this branch. Lopatin’s score for “Supreme” is a safer choice.
Music (Original Song)
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”
“The Girl in the Bubble” from “Wicked For Good”
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners”
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”
Almost there: “Dream as One” from “Avatar: Fire & Ash,” “Drive” from “F1,” “Last Time I See The Sun” from “Sinners,” “No Place Like Home” from “Wicked for Good”
Lowdown: Does “Dear Me” deserve a nomination? No, but Diane Warren has the Music Branch firmly in her grasp like an Aunt Gladys spell. She’s likely helped by both “Sinners” and “Wicked For Good” tracks splitting enough votes that only one from each film makes it.
Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire & Ash”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Sinners”
“Wicked for Good”
Almost there: “Superman,” “Tron: Ares,” “The Lost Bus,” “Jurassic World Rebirth”
Lowdown: If not “Wicked For Good” than “Superman.”
Production Design
Hannah Beachler, “Sinners”
Fiona Crombie, “Hamnet”
Nathan Crowley, “Wicked For Good”
Tamara Deverell, “Frankenstein”
Jack Fisk, “Marty Supreme”
Almost there: Laia Ateca, “Sirat,” Florencia Martin, “One Battle After Another,” Kasra Farahani, “The Fantastic Four: First Steps,” Sam Bader, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
Lowdown: Ateca won the European Film Award in this category, but was snubbed by ADG and BAFTA. “One Battle” is an ADG and BAFTA longlist mention. “Fantastic Four” was snubbed by ADG, but made the BAFTA longlist. If Crowley is snubbed because he won last year for”Wicked,” then “Battle” likely makes it instead.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, “Train Dreams”
Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein”
Will Tracey, “Bugonia”
Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell, “Hamnet”
Almost there: Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Don McKellar, and Lee Ja-hye, “No Other Choice,” Harry Lighton, “Pillion,” Rian Johnson, “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery,”
Lowdown: This class should be safe, but Chan-Wook and the “No Other” team are right there.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just An Accident”
Josh Safdie and Ronald Bronstein, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, “Sentimental Value”
Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”
Almost there: Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent,” Mary Bronstein, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” Zach Cregger, “Weapons”
Lowdown: It’s either Filho or Victor for the final slot. Flip ’em.
Casting
Gabriel Domingues, “The Secret Agent”
Nina Gold, “Hamnet”
Cassandra Kulukundis, “One Battle After Another”
Francine Maisler, “Sinners”
Jennifer Venditti, “Marty Supreme”
Almost there: “Sirat,” “Sentimental Value,” “Frankenstein,” “Wicked For Good,” “Weapons”
Lowdown: We expect at least one of the three international shortlisted films to make it. It will likely be “Secret Agent,” but watch out for European Film Award winner “Sirat” sneaking in.
Directing
Chloe Zhao, “Hamnet”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Almost there: Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just An Accident,” Guillermo del Toro, “Frankenstein,” Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent”
Lowdown: Which of the DGA five isn’t making it? Our bet is del Toro for “Frankenstein,” and the more international branch recognizes Trier instead.
Documentary Feature Film
“2000 Meters to Andriivka”
“The Alabama Solution”
“Cover Up”
“My Undesirable Friends: Part I — Last Air in Moscow”
“The Perfect Stranger”
Almost there: “Mr Nobody Against Putin,” “Apocalypse in the Tropics,” “Come See Me in the Good Light”
Lowdown: As always, expect a surprise or two from the documentary branch. That being said, “2000 Meters” and “Perfect Stranger” are safe bets.
Animated Feature Film
“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”
Almost there: “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle,” “Scarlet,” “In Your Dreams,” “The Bad Guys 2”
Lowdown: Barring a surprise where “Elio” doesn’t make it, these should be your five.
International Feature Film
“It Was Just An Accident”
“The President’s Cake”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirat”
Almost there: “No Other Choice,” “The Voice of the Hind Rajab,” “Left-Handed Girl,” “All That’s Left of You”
Lowdown: The safe picks for the fifth nom are “No Other Choice” (which made our top 10) or “Hind Rajab,” but “President’s Cake” is adored (the director got a DGA First Feature nom), and the voters have to watch all of them in this phase. And it’s just hard to believe Neon will get all in.
Best Picture
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“F1”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Sentimental Value”
“The Secret Agent”
“Train Dreams”
Almost there: “Wicked for Good,” “It Was Just An Accident,” “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “Weapons,” “Sirat”
Lowdown: We’d love nothing better than for “Sirat” to make the 10, but the international membership is 20% of the membership at most. And while Warner Bros. technically will break a 51-year-old record as a distributor, it’s harder to see Neon hitting three Best Picture nominees with three international films.
Look for full coverage of this year’s Oscar nominations on Thursday, beginning at 5:30 AM PT / 8:30 AM on The Playlist.
The 98th Academy Awards will be handed out on Sunday, March 18, at 4 PM PT / 7 PM ET live on ABC and Hulu.
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