Considering that Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” likely, and an emphasis on “likely,” wrapped up a Best Picture win before Christmas, there is still a ton of drama left in the 2026 Oscar nominations. Arguably, only six of the 10 Best Picture slots are locked. Every acting category also has a major question mark, or two. The International Film category will make history with Neon landing every nod, or it won’t. No one really knows how the Casting Branch will vote on their new award. The Documentary Branch always loves to surprise, and this year feels like a doozy. Once again, Diane Warren appears to be demonstrating she cannot be stopped from landing an Original Song nomination. “Sinners” may tie the all-time nomination record of 14 or break it. Oh, and two distributors have a shot at landing three Best Picture nominees for the first time since 1975. And yet, we still have predictions for your pleasure.
READ MORE: The Best Picture Nomination Scenarios: Can Warner Bros Or Neon Make History? [Contender Countdown]
To be fair, two major questions are haunting the awards consultants and publicists whose every waking moment has been spent landing an Oscar nomination for the past five months. The first: How did the late-screening members vote? This year, many studios noted that fewer AMPAS members attended screenings in person than in the past few awards cycles. To be fair, that could be good news that more members are working, but it also means many of them did not catch up to their virtual screener pile (the Academy’s viewing site) until the year-end holidays. Is that an advantage for films such as “Marty Supreme,” “Train Dreams,” or “Song Sung Blue”? Or will it all be negligible in the end?
The second: Will the approximately 2,000+ international members affect the nominations as dramatically as in past years? Since the influx of new global members, the past decade has seen at least two films consistently break through with Best Picture and other key nominations. This year, there are five acclaimed international films contending for major awards. All have been released by Neon in the U.S. Will the international vote split? Even in categories such as Best Director, which tends to lean toward international nominees? Something to ponder.
And, no, we do not predict the shorts. It’s always a crapshoot in the nomination process anyway. That being said, some educated and sourced 98th Academy Awards nominations predictions.
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Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another,”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Almost there: Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee,” Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue,” Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked For Good,” Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby,” Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
Lowdown: Buckley, Byrne, and Reinsve are as safe. Stone should make it, but like Infiniti, could get knocked out. Seyfried is probably the biggest dark horse, with Hudson and Victor legitimate spoilers waiting in the wings.
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Almost there: Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams,” Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon,” Lee Byung Hun, “No Other Choice”
Lowdown: Watch out for Byung Hun. If Hawke makes it, SPC has pulled off another on-the-ground campaign miracle.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Ariana Grande, “Wicked for Good”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyanna Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Almost there: Odessa A’zion, “Marty Supreme,” Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value,” Emily Watson, “Hamnet,” Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme”
Lowdown: If A’zion makes it, could it be at the expense of one-time frontrunner Grande? Or will Mosaku get snubbed? Not sure we want to know the answer to that question.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgard, “Sentimental Value”
Almost there: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners,” Miles Canton, “Sinners”
Lowdown: If any of these five fail, it’s likely Penn, but “One Battle” is so beloved it’s hard to see it not landing two nominees in this category.
Cinematography
Autumn Durald Arkapaw, “Sinners”
Michael Bauman, “One Battle After Another”
Dan Lausten, “Frankenstein”
Adolpho Veloso, “Train Dreams”
Lukasz Zal, “Hamnet”
Almost there: Darius Khondji, “Marty Supreme,” Robbie Ryan, “Bugonia,” Claudio Miranda, “F1,” Mauro Herce, “Sirat”
Lowdown: A year ago, the ASC Awards and Oscar nominations lined up for the first time ever because there were seven ASC nominees. There were not seven, let alone six, ASC Awards nominees this year. History likely will not repeat itself, which is why we have two-time nominee Zal making it for “Hamnet” over Khondji for “Supreme.”
Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“Sinners”
“Sirat”
“Wicked For Good”
Almost there: “One Battle After Another,” “Frankenstein,” “Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning”
Lowdown: We expect European Film Award winner “Sirat” to make it. That likely means “One Battle” or “Wicked For Good” doesn’t. Pick your poison.
Costume Design
Miyako Bellizzi, “Marty Supreme”
Ruth E. Carter, “Sinners”
Kate Hawley, “Frankenstein”
Paul Trazewell, “Wicked For Good”
Malgosia Turzanska, “Hamnet”
Almost there: Collen Atwood, “One Battle After Another,” Małgorzata “Gosia” Karpiuk, “The Testament of Ann Lee,” Lindsay Pugh, “Hedda”
Lowdown: If not “Marty,” then Atwood sneaks in for “One Battle.”
Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine”
“Wicked for Good”
Almost there: “The Ugly Stepsister,” “Marty Supreme,” “Kokuho”
Lowdown: We will go to our grave wondering how on earth “Weapons” didn’t make the shortlist.
Film Editing
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Affonso Gonçalves, “Hamnet”
Andy Jurgensen, “One Battle After Another”
Stephen Mirrione, “F1”
Michael P. Shawver, “Sinners”
Almost there: Evan Schiff, “Frankenstein,” Olivier Bugge Coutté, “Sentimental Value,” Joe Murphy, “Weapons,” Kim Ho-bin and Kim Sang-beom, “No Other Choice,” Eduardo Serrano and Matheus Farias, “The Secret Agent”
Lowdown: The question is whether “Frankenstein” is loved or respected enough to knock one of the five out.
