Again, don’t take the Oscars too seriously, they’re never really worth getting upset over – after all, it is a cottage industry, not cut and dry like the Olympics – but they are fun to prognosticate about.
BEST PICTURE
With the exclusion of “The Dark Knight,” ‘Ben Button’ will probably become part of the ‘Slumdog,’ “Milk” race. It appeals to the classical, older academy voters who showed they’re not all dead this year by giving “The Reader” some major love over the Batman crime saga. Politics now really start to enter the game and ‘Slumdog’ could be seen as too young, too green and too Non-American with all those Indian actors. ‘Milk’ could be too gay for old hetero white males. Leaving the safe and dull ‘Ben Button’ with the win? It is possible. The elderly have spoken and don’t forget they LOVED themselves some ‘Gump’ cliches.
BEST DIRECTOR
Again, Nolan out of the picture changes the game slightly and the now apparent politics have to make one reexamine all categories. Fincher, Boyle and Gus Van Sant have all been working in the industry sans awards for over 15 years, but again “Milk” is gay, ‘Slumdog’ has too many foreigners! Oh oh.
BEST ACTOR
Still a two-legged race between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn, but here’s where collective hive thinking changes things. If people realize in their voting that “Milk” is being left out, Penn could trump because voters may think “Milk” does deserve some major recognition. They don’t vote together or make choices by consensus, but now with only 5 choices to consider in front of themselves, collective thinking is a much stronger force and does begin to happen.
BTW, Jeffrey Wells‘ take on Pitt’s nomination is hilarious and spot-on. “Whoa, wait a minute, whoa…Brad Pitt has been nominated for Best Actor for playing a passive sponge man with two and a half expressions? This is a performance about makeup and CG. Button is very worthy film in some respects, but this is comic relief.”
BEST ACTRESS
Kate Winslet for “The Reader,” a role everyone was convinced was a supporting role? This changes everything and it could slightly work against her, but politics, never ever forget. Streep was way better, but Kate Winslet has never won a Best Actress award, nominated many times, yes. Five times so far. But won Best Actress? Do we smell an early lifetime achievement award? Could very well happen. There are upsets each year though and support for Anne Hathaway is out there. Melissa Leo will just have to be happy she was nominated.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Back from the dead and snubbed all award season is Michael Shannon, but Heath Ledger still owns this category. Plus it will be seen as an additional make up for “Dark Knight”s snub. He’s a lock.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis and Amy Adams will probably and unfortunately cancel each other out leaving it an easy lay-up for Penelope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.” Taraji P Henson could get some support if Oscar voters realize they’re not really voting for ‘Ben Button,’ and think the film does deserve some kind of major recognition. This could be an upset category like it was last year.
Will this all change in a few weeks as we get closer to February 22 and Oscar night? Undoubtedly. There’s lots of politicking and angling to be done, but this is where it mostly stands today.