This rundown of the Best Picture race was originally included in The Breakdown newsletter. Subscriber here to get the last awards season and industry commentary here, first.
The Oscars shortlists giveth and the Oscars shortlists taketh away. And this year, they gave something of a hopeful lifeline to Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Perez.” Or, at the least, it provided Netflix with some breathing room after a bumpy few weeks. Not that it necessarily needed it.
Much to the streamer’s chagrin, “Perez” arrived this fall to just as polarizing a reaction as its Cannes debut in May. Just look at the swings in the Metacritic score (71 on 53 reviews), the lack of year-end critics awards, top-10 list mentions, and an online discourse that has grown more negative since it hit the streaming platform. And that’s fine. The Oscar campaign is about guild voters and AMPAS members. Their opinions are what matters. Not the general public or the media. When the Shortlists were revealed, those members made sure “Perez” earned every mention it could, totaling six overall. It even snagged two Original Song mentions for “El Mal” and “Mi Camino.”
The unconventional musical may have its detractors, but it also has a passionate fanbase, especially in Europe (Mexico, we’re not so sure of). That was evident by the melodrama almost sweeping the European Film Awards on December 7. Netflix may even convince the Acting Branch that Zoe Saldana should be considered for Supporting Actress, a true miracle if they pull it off. And, a month from now, we may be wondering, with Directing, Actress, Editing, and, potentially, an Adapted Screenplay nomination, if “Perez” can truly win it all. Those are the key categories you need. I mean, it wouldn’t get snubbed in Editing, would it? Writers have grumbled about its script, but have you seen the Adapted Screenplay field? It ain’t great (Original Screenplay, on the other hand, will have some major snubs).
On January 17, “Perez” is going to likely land a minimum of nine nominations. In theory, it could bank 12 or more (as could, notably, “Wicked”). Does that make it a true contender to win it all? Or is it another “Killers of the Flower Moon” or “The Irishman”? Movies with massive hype and a ton of nominations that fell flat on Oscar night.
Ponder.
One film just quietly working its magic during phase one is Edward Berger’s “Conclave.” It hasn’t missed out on one guild nomination it was expected to land, and it got the one Shortlist mention that was expected (Original Score). Is it going to earn 10 nominations? Unless the Papal drama doubles up in the Supporting Acting category, probably not. But it screams PGA Awards winner and should snag a ton of BAFTA Awards nominations. Even more importantly, there are no controversies surrounding it, it’s a favorite for many and feels like the defacto second vote selection in ranked voting down the line.
They say you win Best Picture in phase one, and, at this point, that’s exactly what the quiet, steady campaign of “Conclave” appears to be doing. Keeping all that in mind, here’s your latest Contender Countdown Best Picture rankings.
Dec. 23, 2024
1 “Conclave”
“I’m gonna hang out over here. Just ignore me, fight amongst yourselves.”
2 “The Brutalist”
The holiday box office frame may tell the tale. This weekend was a great start.
3 “Wicked”
Are there enough straight male (yes, we said it) second-place votes out there for it to win?
4 “A Complete Unknown”
It has to do well at the box office.
5 “Anora”
The LAFCA win was a godsend. If it hadn’t pulled that off (and it was close with “The Brutalist”), it would be further down this list.
6 “Emilia Perez”
The Oscar shortlists proved it’s going to get a ton of nominations. The Netflix team are pros at that. Will it win any though?
7 “Dune Part II”
Regarding the question of whether it’s safe, yes, after three shortlist mentions it’s safe.
8 “A Real Pain”
Did you know it’s already made over $1 million in Poland?
9 “Sing Sing”
The A24 publicity machine is in full swing. A ton and we mean a ton of hosted screenings this past week when other films have already gone dark. Looks like it will get across the finish line.
10 “Nickel Boys”
A PGA Award nomination and significant BAFTA Shortlist mentions should seal the deal.
11 “Challengers”
Gonna need some help from the Big Three guild nominations or its game, set, match.
12 “All We See As Light”
We are skeptical, but…rumblings.
13 “The Substance”
We were starting to believe with several below-the-line guild nominations. Then the Oscar shortlists came through, and the misses in Score and Sound signaled its Best Picture nomination chances are less and less likely.
14 “Hard Truths”
Marianne Jean-Baptiste should earn a BAFTA nomination, but can she snag SAG too? She has lived in LA for a long time…
15 “Blitz”
At this point, three Oscar shortlist mentions are at least something.
16 “September 5”
The Golden Globe Motion Picture – Drama nomination was a nice publicity win. The lack of shortlist mentions was not ideal.
17 “The Room Next Door”
Oh, boy. Pretty sure this is not what SPC expected for the Venice Golden Lion winner.
