The 2022 Oscar shortlists are here which means multiple Academy branches have given us some insight into what they like and, well, what they don’t. But before we jump into those tantalizing tea leaves, let us consider the box office sensation that is defying all pandemic expectations, “Spider-Man: No Way Home.” A Sony Pictures-Marvel Studios co-production that has proven that millions of moviegoers will risk the Omicron variant to see your friendly neighborhood, amazing, MCU Spider-Man (or should that be “men?”) on the big screen. You may scoff at such a prospect, but let us remind you there are a guaranteed 10 nominees this year. Keeping an open mind is paramount.
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Here’s the thing. At this point, to our knowledge, as of December 22, Sony Pictures has not run one FYC ad. They had other priorities before the movie opened such as, well, having a profitable release. However, unlike other late wanna-be players such as “Rogue One” and “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” (yes, there was talk), there is significantly more time until Oscar voting begins. Don’t discount that. Granted, it’s not just about ads, media positioning or even putting it on the AMPAS screening site. Enough members have to deem it worthy of their vote. And, unlike “Black Panther,” there may not be enough cultural gravitas to generate genuine Oscar momentum outside of categories such as Visual Effects and Sound. Consequently, there is another blockbuster that the Academy appears to be enamored with, “No Time To Die.”
When the shortlists were announced on Tuesday afternoon, the biggest surprise wasn’t “Billie Eilish: The World Is A Little Blurry” landing on the Documentary shortlist when it already earned four Emmy nominations in July. No, the most eyebrow-raising discovery was that Daniel Craig‘s final James Bond adventure landed five shortlist mentions. And one of them was Makeup and Hairstyling, not a category you’d expect it to make the cut when a number of other films were categorically snubbed. The MGM release may not earn nominations in all of those categories (it will certainly make it in Original Song and Sound), but it’s a heads up that there is genuine affection for the fall release. Also, “No Time to Die” isn’t just one of the few major global hits of the pandemic era, it’s the third highest-grossing film in the history of the U.K. No. 2 on that list? “Skyfall.” Do you know what country has the second most Academy members after the United States? The U.K. And ask any Oscar consultant if that Sony Pictures-MGM release would have made it if the MGM regime at the time had committed to a real campaign much earlier (Surprise: this MGM has). Granted, “No Time” doesn’t have the critical acclaim that “Skyfall did,” but maybe this particular year it doesn’t matter. Or maybe it does.
In terms of the rest of the Best Picture field, the other major player in the unveiling of the shortlists was “Dune.” Denis Villeneuve‘s Sci-Fi epic took every category it could (it did not qualify for Original Song) and is pretty much a lock for a nomination. If Warner Bros. can figure out a way to land an acting nomination things could get much more interesting. We admit that is probably highly unlikely. And, as it has been for the past few months, the race for the crown is still tightly between “Belfast” and “The Power of the Dog.” And, yes, it’s a genuine race.
Keeping all that in mind, here’s a rundown of where the Best Picture race stands before the holiday break.
December 22, 2021
1 “Belfast”
I mean it made the Sound shortlist, that’s some love right there.
2 “The Power of the Dog”
Not trying to get Netflix all anxious or anything, but it legitimately could win.
3 “West Side Story”
Box Office doesn’t matter in the pandemic era, but sometimes it does, pt. 1
4 “Dune”
Might lead the pack in nominations if they can get an acting nod in there.
5 “Licorice Pizza”
To be honest, we thought it had a shot at a Makeup and Hairstyling shortlist nod at least.
6 “King Richard”
It’s safe. Whether Will Smith‘s Best Actor Oscar is a lock is an entirely different question.
7 “CODA”
Would be Sundance’s 7th Best Picture nominee over the past 10 years. Not bad Park City.
8 “Nightmare Alley”
Box Office doesn’t matter in the pandemic era, but sometimes it does, pt. 2
9 “The Lost Daughter”
Lots of genuine love for this one. That might be enough.
10 “No Time To Die”
Would be a fun way to end the Daniel Craig era, no?
11 “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
I am highly skeptical at this point, but PGA may tell the tale.
12 “Spider-Man: No Way Home”
Who says no? Hey, you didn’t all have to raise your hands.
13 “The French Dispatch”
A missed opportunity? Or maybe there’s time with a month left in voting.
14 “tick, tick…BOOM!”
Andrew Garfield feels safe, but it feels like it’s fading.
15 “Don’t Look Up”
Reviews are not great, but more importantly, we’re just not sure a studio/distributor (Netflix in this case) can break the three nominee glass ceiling.
16 “Spencer”
Nope, nope, no. Just gotta try to win for KStew now.
17 “Being The Ricardos”
On life support (it couldn’t even land on the Makeup and Hairstyling shortlist), but let’s see what happens now that it’s arrived on Amazon Prime Video.
18 “The Worst Person in the World”
Just leaving this here as a reminder to NEON.
