It doesn’t take a Hollywood insider to know that the movie theater business is struggling to survive right now. Cinemas were already in trouble, after depending on blockbusters for so long, but the COVID-19 pandemic only accelerated their decline. Now, it’s clear that things are going to be changing forever.
And two of the men responsible for some of the biggest films of all time, Steven Spielberg and George Lucas, shared some predictions for what the future might hold for movie theaters back in 2013, and it’s interesting that it appears some of them might be coming true.
Speaking on a panel at the University of Southern California, seven years ago, (via The Verge), Lucas and Spielberg were asked to talk about the future of the film industry, specifically in relation to cinemas. And unfortunately, not even those two Hollywood legends gave the hope we’re looking for.
“You’re at the point right now where a studio would rather invest $250 million in one film for a real shot at the brass ring,” Spielberg said, “than make a whole bunch of really interesting, deeply personal — and even maybe historical — projects that may get lost in the shuffle because there’s only 24 hours.”
Spielberg is referencing how people are inundated with content and the lack of hours in the day means that theaters have to compete with every other content delivery system for the attention of the audience. This has only been magnified in recent years.
He continued, “There’s going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even half a dozen of these mega-budgeted movies are going to go crashing into the ground, and that’s going to change the paradigm again.”
So what’s that new paradigm going to be? Well, Lucas predicted that the future of theaters will mirror the concert and sports industry. Event films will drive people to mega theaters where they’ll pay top dollar for the experience of watching a film. Something that was echoed recently by Ron Howard.
“What you’re going to end up with is fewer theaters,” Lucas said. “Bigger theaters, with a lot of nice things. Going to the movies is going to cost you 50 bucks, maybe 100. Maybe 150. And that’s going to be what we call ‘the movie business.’ But everything else is going to look more like cable television on TiVo.”
It’s clear that Lucas referenced the future of streaming services picking up original programming and showcasing it on their platforms and not in theaters. The filmmaker beleived that smaller films, even those with massive talent, such as Spielberg’s own “Lincoln,” will be the type of features relegated to streaming.
He said, “I think eventually the ‘Lincolns’ are going to go away and they’re going to be on television.”
Spielberg interjected, “And mine almost was! This close. Ask HBO — this close!”
We know that Spielberg has long been a critic of streaming services, particularly when it comes to awards recognition, as the filmmaker doesn’t necessarily hold Netflix films up to the same standards as he does theatrical releases. However, these two filmmakers were on the money that the future of non-blockbusters is in streaming and theaters are going to look a lot different in the not-too-distant future.
UPDATE: Original post didn’t reference the fact that the interview is from 2013. Sorry for any confusion.