20. “Fifty Shades Darker”
Most movies (as this list demonstrates) are made for and marketed to 14-year-old boys or those who are still 14-year-old boys at heart, and “Fifty Shades Of Grey” is one of the films that shows the idiocy of that. Despite lousy reviews and the lack of a release in China, and being made for the cost of a fraction of most explode-y blockbusters, it grossed close to $600 million on its release two years ago (outgrossing movies like “Cinderella,” “Ant-Man” and “San Andreas”). Now, it’s tricky to say whether its sequel will drop off significantly from its predecessor: The book on which it’s based is awful even by the standards of the original, and you could argue that the ‘Fifty Shades’ pop-culture wave was cresting when the original film hit, and its time might have moved on. But for all its sexploits, this franchise is essentially closer to a YA series, and if you look at “Twilight,” “The Hunger Games,” et al, those franchises tend to peak with the second film before falling off dramatically. Ultimately, we think this’ll do less than the first film, the novelty having worn off slightly, but as the obvious date movie of choice, and with some franchise fuel left in the tank, it won’t be a massive drop, around the $500 million mark.
19. “Cars 3”
They’re (quite rightly) disliked by critics, normally landing at the bottom of the endless ‘Pixar Ranked’ pieces, and aren’t giant grossers, firmly sitting in the lower of half of Pixar’s movies at the box office. But Disney will still likely keep making “Cars” movies long after you and I are dead (probably being killed in the 2035 smart-car uprising that will herald the future foretold in these films), for two reasons. One, the amount of money the movies make at the box office are essentially the cherry on top of the sundae: As of the release of the second movie, the franchise had sold TEN. BILLION. DOLLARS worth of merchandise. And second, while adult Pixar fans don’t like the “Cars” films, kids really do, in the way that they like “Minions” or “Ice Age” or sticking their fingers in their noses. As such, we don’t imagine that this will exceed the $560 million made by the sequel, or fall short of the $460 million of the original. But it’s almost certain to land right between them.
18. “Kingsman: The Golden Circle”
We might hate the movie itself, but we do sort of admire the way that “Kingsman: The Secret Service” proved so successful. It was an R-rated spy movie based on a comic book no one had heard of, starring Colin Firth, whose only previous action experience was the more strenuous dance sequences in “Mamma Mia,” and a young actor whose name, let’s face it, you still have to look up (Taron Egerton, for future reference). And yet even after opening in what’s traditionally a quiet month, it took $400 million worldwide (including an impressive $75 million in China alone). A delighted Fox had a new franchise, and there’s every reason to think that sequel ‘The Golden Circle’ will do even better. The original is, against all reason and logic, well-liked by the public, and the sequel should bring back most of the original elements (including Firth, despite him dying in the first film), while adding new elements to the mix, including Channing Tatum, Halle Berry and Jeff Bridges. It even makes the subtext of the first film text by making the villain a woman, in the shape of Julianne Moore. A fall release is different, but has never hurt 007 (though don’t be shocked if Fox move it up to the still-vacant start-of-August “Suicide Squad” slot), and though the performance of “Now You See Me 2” could be a cautionary tale, we expect this to build on the first film and land somewhere between $500 and $600 million, maybe even higher.
17. “The Mummy”
It feels like Universal have now been talking about an interlocking franchise drawing on their library of monster properties, a move intended to give them their very own “Avengers,” for decades now, though it’s only been about five years. Their plans finally come to fruition this summer with Tom Cruise vehicle “The Mummy,” the start of a universe that, if it comes off, will come to include Johnny Depp as “The Invisible Man,” Dwayne Johnson as “The Wolf Man” and Javier Bardem as “Frankenstein”(’s Monster). It’s tempting to wish failure on it to punish the pure cynicism that brought it together, but we suspect that, at least here, Universal’s gamble will mostly pay off. Less because of the basic idea, but more because they appear to have made and sold the film as essentially “Mummy: Impossible,” which is wise given the enduring appeal of Cruise’s main franchise. The actor isn’t as bulletproof as he once was, as underwhelming box office for “Oblivion” and “Knight & Day” proved, and a similar haul of $300 million would be a disaster for the studio here. But last time Cruise melded his heroics with a classic sci-fi/horror property, “The War Of The Worlds” took $600 million, and unless this is a major stinker, we’re inclined to put it closer to that, if not all the way there (around the $540 million earned by “World War Z” seems about right).
16. “Dunkirk”
We can almost guarantee that Christopher Nolan’s latest, “Dunkirk,” will be the director’s lowest-grossing movie since “The Prestige” 10 years ago. But given that the average gross of the four movies that Nolan has released in that time is just under $900 million, that’s not necessarily much of a problem, and we can also guarantee that “Dunkirk” will wildly outgross any other sober Second World War drama that any other director would have made. The helmer’s 10th film has plenty of traditional box-office marks against it — a docudrama feel, a cast lacking in box-office draws and led by newcomers, a lack of genre elements, somber marketing. But Nolan, unique bar anyone but the much-less-prolific James Cameron (even Spielberg no longer has this status), is a colossal brand name in and of himself, and has already managed to make “Dunkirk” feel like an event (the IMAX preview with “Rogue One” will be a big help). It’ll feel like a tonic in a summer full of more fantastical fare, and crucially, will also benefit from an unusually quiet late summer — the only blockbuster-sized movie opening after it is “The Dark Tower,” which is very much a question mark right now. We’d guess it comes in a touch under the $675 million made by “Interstellar,” closer to $600 million, but that’s still a miracle for a movie with this subject matter.
15. “The Emoji Movie”
The only animated film on this list more unappealing to the over-sixes than “Smurfs,” “The Emoji Movie” is a harbinger of the apocalypse in so many ways, an animated film literally based on the pictures you text to people when you can’t be bothered to type. Wrought, presumably, by asshole studio executives enabled by the success of “The Lego Movie,” it will unfortunately likely reward their assholery by being enormously successful. Starring T.J. Miller, Ilana Glazer and, with a crushing sense of inevitability, James Corden, it promises to do for your phone what “Wreck-It Ralph” did for video games, but, likely, much worse. Nevertheless, kids do love those little yellow-faces, and it may bring in some teens, too, and more crucially, will be the first summer animated movie to land in over a month when it hits at the start of August, and will have most of August to itself before schools reopen (beyond “The Nut Job 2” picking up pocket change). The best we can hope for is that it only does ‘Angry Birds‘ numbers at around $350 million, but we have a horrible feeling it’ll come significantly over that and be much closer to $600 million.
14. “Kong: Skull Island”
In a blockbuster-packed March, “Kong: Skull Island” might seem like the underdog in some ways: It’s the first of a series, it doesn’t have A-list headliners like Scarlett Johansson or Ryan Reynolds, it isn’t a superhero movie or a Power Rangers reboot, and it’s not “Beauty And The Beast” (it was Beauty that killed the beast…). But we think it could be a real force to be reckoned with. The last take on “King Kong,” Peter Jackson’s 2005 film, took $500 million worldwide despite a three-hour running time, while 2014’s “Godzilla” reboot (which Kong will eventually cross over with) did almost exactly the same. The latter, as directed by Gareth Edwards, was an artsier, chillier take on the monster movie, but director Jordan Vogt-Roberts looks to have delivered something brighter and more entertaining with his ’70s-era take (early buzz is extremely good on it). And with Legendary having consistently proven to know how to bring in international audiences to their movies, we think this’ll do better than Jackson’s or “Godzilla” — $600 million feels like a conservative guess, but it could end up significantly higher.
13. “The Lego Batman Movie”
Aside from it inspiring the creation of “The Emoji Movie,” 2014’s “The Lego Movie” was an unexpected delight, and one of its finest creations was its version of Batman, voiced by Will Arnett as an absolute dick, a Goth-bro of questionable sexual morals and absolute self-absorption. He gets his own spin-off next month (with Michael Cera as Robin, Zach Galifianakis as the Joker and Ralph Fiennes as Alfred), and, as the first real box-office force of the year, should be an even more massive hit than its predecessor. “The Lego Movie” took a hefty $470 million, though it was unusually skewed towards the U.S. for an animated film like this. The above-the-title presence of Batman should help it be a bigger deal abroad, but it’s also likely to bring in older Batman fans (even some of the superhero audience that lapped up “Deadpool” at the same time last year), as well as those who skipped “The Lego Movie” in theaters but enjoyed it on DVD or TV. Unless the reviews are dire, and they shouldn’t be, our guess is it comes in between $600m and $700m, and could easily end up going higher.
12. “War For The Planet Of The Apes”
The rebooted “Planet Of The Apes” franchise is an unusual one at this point in time. For one, it’s been consistently excellent so far, with Rupert Wyatt surprising everyone with ‘Rise…’ before Matt Reeves stepped the quality up higher with ‘Dawn…’ For another, it’s a giant blockbuster where the lead character is a CGI monkey, one more relatable and human than any flesh-and-blood actor in other blockbusters. And for another still, it’s consistently performed superbly at the box office, but doesn’t seem to attract that fervent of a fanbase compared to the competition. This third film, three years on from ‘Dawn,’ will be an interesting one to watch in terms of its success: The second made a stunning $700 million, but buzz seems muted for this one at the minute. But it also seemed muted for the previous ones too. The competition is stiffer this time too — “Spider-Man: Homecoming” the week before, the similarly grown-up “Dunkirk” the week after — but we think this’ll quietly match the $700 million that ‘Dawn’ made, and could even get closer to $800 million.
11. “Thor: Ragnarok”
Thor is, at least metaphorically, the red-headed orphan step-child of the Marvel universe: His movies are less well-reviewed and less successful (both movies are in the bottom half of Marvel’s worldwide grossers), and the Norse god was sent out on a fool’s errand for much of ‘Age Of Ultron‘ before sitting out ‘Civil War‘ entirely. His third solo outing is intended as a corrective, and Marvel are pulling out all the stops: a team-up with Mark Ruffalo’s Hulk (and seemingly an extended cameo from Doctor Strange too), a plot that will apparently be the most crucial when it comes to leading into the ‘Infinity War,’ and an insane cast including Tessa Thompson, Karl Urban, Jeff Goldblum and, as the villain, Cate Blanchett. Its secret weapon could be “Hunt For The Wilderpeople” director Taika Waititi, who’ll likely deliver a funnier (and just better) film than the other two, but we’re still skeptical that this can join ‘Civil War’ and “Iron Man 3” in crossing the magic billion-dollar mark, especially with “Justice League” sucking its audience up a few weeks later. Clearing $700 million should be easy enough, but $800m or $900m will depend on how well it works, and how “Justice League” does.