EDITING
Tom Cross, “La La Land”
John Gilbert, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Jennifer Lame, “Manchester by the Sea”
Joi McMillion, Nat Sanders “Moonlight”
Jake Roberts, “Hell or High Water”
Party crashers: Alexandre de Franceschi, “Lion,” Joe Walker, “Arrival”
Lowdown: This category is usually a key indicator of which films can win Best Picture. It’s extremely hard to win without an Editing nod.
COSTUME DESIGN
Colleen Atwood, “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them”
Consolata Boyle, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Madeline Fontaine, “Jackie”
Johanna Johnston, “Allied”
Mary Zophres, “La La Land”
Party crashers: Seong-hie Ryu, “The Handmaiden,” Mary Zophres, “Hail, Caesar!”
Lowdown: Zophres has a great shot to squeak into this category.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Greig Fraser, “Lion”
James Laxton, “Moonlight”
Rodrigo Prieto, “Silence”
Linus Sandgren, “La La Land”
Bradford Young, “Arrival”
Party crashers: Stephan Fontaine, “Jackie,” Seamus McGarvey, “Nocturnal Animals”
Lowdown: These are your ASC Award nominees and we’d expect them to repeat here.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Finding Dory”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“The Red Turtle”
“Zootopia”
Party crashers: “The Little Prince,” “Sing”
Lowdown: We’re expecting “Finding Dory” to make the final five, but it could get snubbed.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Lobster”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Mike Mills, “20th Century Women”
Taylor Sheridan, “Hell or High Water”
Party crasher: Noah Oppenheim, “Jackie”
Lowdown: We’ve been pretty vocal about the merits of Chazelle’s screenplay, but the Academy loves the film to0 much to snub him here.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Luke Davies, “Lion”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Eric Heisserer, “Arrival”
August Wilson, “Fences”
Party crashers: Tom Ford for “Nocturnal Animals,” Jeff Nichols for “Loving,” Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder, “Hidden Figures”
Lowdown: “Hacksaw Ridge” is borderline, but field has weakened enough to make it likely.
*Updated after initial publication*
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Hugh Grant, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester By The Sea”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Party crashers: Aaron Taylor-Johson, “Nocturnal Animals,” Kevin Costner, “Hidden Figures”
Lowdown: In theory, Taylor-Johnson or Costner could knock Hedges or Grant out, but we’re sticking with the SAG five.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Party crasher: None
Lowdown: This is it. No surprises, pt. 1
ACTOR
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Party crasher: Jake Gyllenhaal, “Nocturnal Animals”
Lowdown: This is likely it. No surprises, pt. 2
ACTRESS
Amy Adams, “Arrival”
Annette Bening, “20th Century Women”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Party crasher: Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Lowdown: What to do about Isabelle. She absolutely deserves a nomination and her Golden Globe win had to have made the actor’s branch take notice. The question is will they vote for her without seeing the movie and how many have actually seen it? And will they really snub Bening or Streep for Huppert?
DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Garth Davis, “Lion”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Party crasher: Pablo Larrain, “Jackie,” David Mackenzie, “Hell or High Water”
Lowdown: The DGA nominees don’t always line up with the Academy’s smaller directing branch, but we think they will this year.
BEST PICTURE
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester By The Sea”
“Moonlight”
If there are 9: “Hacksaw Ridge”
Party crasher: “Jackie”
Lowdown: Are there 8 or are there 9? That’s the big question.
Agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts below.
