Hollywood has returned from its annual 10 day break (which is really more like two weeks) and those in the awards season game are wondering who’s in and who’s really out. The problem is, in the Best Picture race, outside of three contenders we might be down to a pick ’em for the rest of the field.
Make no mistake, “La La Land” (your winner), “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” are all in. Beyond that the tea leaves are still swirling. Academy members spent most of the holidays trying to get through their screener pile and talking to any of them is akin to polling a voter in Michigan before the election. You think you know who they intend to vote for, but is it an accurate reflection of the membership at large?
The big questions really center on films seemingly on the fringe that have done well in guild awards so far (“Hidden Figures,” “Hacksaw Ridge”), those that have a faint pulse (“Jackie”) and those that are trying to find one (“20th Century Women,” “Sully”). But it’s always important to know the guilds do not always reflect the views of the Academy (although they do more often than not) and that the late arrival of many screeners over the weeks after Thanksgiving means there could be a disconnect. That’s why outside of the top three contenders it feels like more of a crapshoot than usual.
Of course, this will all change when the PGA and DGA Awards nominees are announced mid-next week. And, BAFTA is always an interesting group of nominations that you can spin into all sorts of different scenarios if you’d like (we’ll have two weeks, why not?). Basically, clarity is a week away (ignore the Golden Globes, they mean nothing), or is it? Outside of the top three, this season has felt “off.” Perhaps it is because so many of the contenders released in theaters later than past seasons. Perhaps it’s because the industry has been mostly distracted by the election and a president elect who can’t get off twitter. Or, perhaps it’s because there are not as many consensus films as we’d expect there to be. That’s the more interesting quandary: How much passion is there for each film? Because no passion means less first-place votes.
When the Academy modified the voting rules on a new numeric formula for 2012, the number of Best Picture nominees dropped from 10 to nine. That only lasted three years. For the last two Oscars we have only head eight Best Picture nominees. With a significant increase in membership (The Academy is reportedly close to or over 6,000 members for the first time), will that make it harder to gain the necessary first-place votes to win? I’m not a mathematician, but be surprised and not shocked if there are only seven nominees this year. Call it a hunch.
Keeping this in mind, here is the latest Contender Countdown as well as links to all my most up-to-date predictions.
Jan. 7 2016
1. “La La Land”
Do you know how big a hit this movie currently is and how big it is going to be? It’s already made $17 million in…South Korea. Lionsgate is looking at a minimum of $200 million worldwide for this baby.
2. “Manchester by the Sea”
There is a big, big canyon between no. 1 and no. 2 on this list. And a much smaller one between no. 2 and no. 3. It may take home only one or two Oscars, but Kenneth Lonergan’s comeback (a story somehow lost during the season) solidified Amazon Studios as a major prestige player.
3. “Moonlight”
Could Barry Jenkins go home with two Academy Awards on Oscar Sunday for both Adapted Screenplay and Director? Keep hope alive.
4. “Hell or High Water”
If it lands a PGA nomination you can pretty much put it in the lock category.
5. “Lion”
The most emotional ending of the field. It “should” make the cut.
6. “Fences”
Box office and WGA nod speaks volumes, pt. 1.
7. “Jackie”
Not getting a WGA nod hurts. There is a passionate group behind it, but is it enough?
8. “Arrival”
Box office and WGA nod speaks volumes, pt. 2.
9. “Hidden Figures”
In theory, anything after eight on this list is dicey. It’s already landed a key SAG ensemble nod, but PGA will tell the tale.
10. “Sully”
It feels like something’s missing, but Warner Bros. hasn’t missed out on a Best Pic nod since the field expanded seven years ago and has only missed out once since 2003.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film
Documentary Feature
Original Score
Original Song
Costume Design
Makeup and Hairstyling
Visual Effects
Sound Mixing – Coming Soon
Sound Editing – Coming Soon
