It’s a sign of the times that the incredibly prolific Clint Eastwood will not release a film that qualifies for the current 2021 Oscar season. His spirit, however, is present in Ron Howard’s disappointing “Hillbilly Elegy,” which pulled the curtain back on reviews and reactions today. To be blunt, “Elegy,” which is based on J.D. Vance’s bestselling memoir, would likely disappear as an award movie any other year. With contenders pushing out of qualification as theaters struggling to stay open due to the COVID-19 pandemic, I mean, I guess anything is possible, but…oof (our review).
READ MORE: ‘Hillbilly Elegy’: Starring Amy Adams & Glenn Close [Review]
Honestly, the less said about “Hillbilly” the better. There will no doubt be some pundits who think it’s “good” (bless) and there are critics who will eviscerate it. Both broad and over-the-top, the drama has one thing going for it and that brings us back to Eastwood. Simply, if Kathy Bates can get nominated in 2019 for her performance in Clint’s already forgotten melodrama “Richard Jewell,” than “Hillbilly” stars Glenn Close and Amy Adams can certainly earn their eighth and seventh nominations respectfully. Sure, Adams campaigning in Lead Actress categories makes absolutely no sense (she’s probably in half the movie, if that), but category strategy has worked before! And as for whether Close can finally take that trophy, you can expect Ellen Burstyn (“Pieces of a Woman”), Youn Yhu-jung (“Minari”), Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”) and, yes, even Olivia Colman (“The Father”) to have something to say about that. (And we’re still advocating for Elisabeth Moss to campaign Supporting Actress for “Shirley,” but that’s above my pay grade.)
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The other intriguing contender that debuted over the past fortnight was David Fincher‘s “Mank.” The reviews were deservedly strong, but perhaps not as euphoric as Netflix might have hoped? Granted, critical opinions are often just a recommendation engine for guild and Academy members that love to surprise. Still, we think it a sign it might be difficult for the period piece to pull off the win. At this point, “Minari” and “Nomadland” may have the combination of cultural importance, sophistication and emotion that make Academy member’s hearts flutter. Of course, another Netflix player, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” could make that a three-way race. Check back here on Saturday for our thoughts after it screens for most critics and the media at large.
READ MORE: Amanda Seyfried is the Oscar surprise in David Fincher’s “Mank”
Keeping all that in mind, here’s a post-election edition of the Contender Countdown to get your mind off all those silly recounts.
Nov. 10, 2021
1 “Nomadland” (Tie)
Too close to call.
1 “Minari” (Tie)
Too close to call.
3 “Mank”
Expect a boatload of nominations and it looks like Seyfried is its best hope at a major trophy.
4 “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Accorting to pollsters, lots of people have watched it. “Probably” still a safe nominee. If you believe the polls…
5 “One Night In Miami”
We’ll know a lot more after its Christmas release.
6 “News of the World”
Is this still coming out in December? Or in a qualifying window at all?
7 “Tenet”
Do not discount the admiration many AMPAS members have for Warner Bros. and Nolan’s attempt to get theaters open in the U.S. and (more successfully) overseas during the middle of a historic pandemic.
8 “The Father”
In a year of filmed plays, it’s definitely still a play, but it’s also a tearjerker that gets people bawling.
9 “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
We haven’t even reached Thanksgiving and I need someone to convince me anyone other than Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman are winning Best Actress and Best Actor and that’s just off a trailer.
10 “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Paramount and Lee Daniel’s late-season player.
ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
“Greyhound”
There is a window that keeps getting bigger and bigger for Apple with this one.
“SOUL”
Could this be the first Pixar movie nominated for Best Picture since “Toy Story 3”? I mean, it is decidedly more sophisticated than a number of the films in the top ten.
“Ammonite”
The British are coming! The British are coming!
“Pieces of a Woman”
Dare to dream, pt. 1.
“Shirley”
Dare to dream, pt. 2.
“Da 5 Bloods”
Just how many Best Picture nominees can Netflix land this year?
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
OK, WB. Is it qualifying this year or not?
“Cherry”
Not a peep on Apple about this one since the acquisition. Considering the opening for a nomination that’s sorta weird.
“Promising Young Woman”
Another holiday gift for voters.
“The Midnight Sky”
It looks pretty at least.
“Palm Springs”
The feel-good player at the bar spilling drinks on its mask hoping someone asks them on a social distance date.
“Hillbilly Elegy”
I mean, sure.
“Emma”
Anyone wanna tell Focus they have something here?
“Everyone’s Talking About Jamie”
In all seriousness, the genuine surprise of the season?
OTHERS HOPING TO PLAY THE GAME
“On the Rocks”
We love you HFPA.
“Mulan”
It’s still 2020. Anything is possible!
“The King of Staten Island”
What’s the over/under that Judd Apatow gets an AFI tribute one day?
“First Cow”
Will be on a ton of top 10 lists. Outside of Spirits, that may be it.
“The Prom”
No.
2021 Oscar Contenders and Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
