It might feel longer, but it’s only been two weeks since “Everything Everywhere All At Once” triumphed at the 95th Academy Awards. And, thankfully, this is a year where there has been no fallout from a physical altercation on stage, an unnecessary ceremony at Union Station, or a Best Picture envelope mishap. And even with a potential strike on the horizon and impending layoffs at the Walt Disney Company, there are more positives than negatives in movieland (hey, the ratings were even up this year). People are going back to the movies, there are impending blockbusters on the horizon, and even the art house box office has rebounded. And with studios already formulating their 2024 campaigns (oh, you bet they are), it seems like a good time to revisit our annual new Oscar rules dissertation.
READ MORE: It all lead to this: A24’s triumphant Oscars night
However, before we jump into it, let’s revisit the biggest lesson of the 2023 season: don’t be fooled by a once-in-a-blue-moon “Everything Everywhere” campaign.
As we noted the morning after the Oscars telecast, “EEAAO” was an anomaly of a campaign that even A24 will have problems duplicating. It was the perfect mix of a critically acclaimed film (obviously, the most important element), a movie that had “heart”(a must to take Best Picture), a decidedly “cinematic” endeavor (you needed to see it in a theater), an art-house crossover hit when the industry was desperate for one, the narrative of a contender with an almost all Asian cast (still too rare), a once-in-a-lifetime Hollywood comeback story (Ke Huy Quan) and a long-gestating opportunity to reward a beloved international icon (Michelle Yeoh, whose Oscar drumbeat truly began with “Crazy Rich Asians“). Oh, and of course Jamie Lee Curtis, the red carpet quote machine who became the entertaining cheerleader and social media mom who also happened to have more longtime friends in the Academy than an Oscar consultant could dream of (even Oscar campaign miracle worker Guillermo del Toro couldn’t pull of what she did).
This concoction worked so well that what became a year-long campaign (the film opened in theaters on March 25, 2022) didn’t oversaturate (more on that later) and allowed the independent studio to spend much less on awards media than its competitors. And while there were some billboards here and there and a requisite print trade ad, A24 raised eyebrows among its competitors for achieving so much on just publicity, Q&As, and events. And, again, we’re not sure the same level of success can consistently result for any future contender using that formula. It’s one reason why the game is always changing and “rules” come and go.
Keeping that in mind, let’s start off with a few rules that never get old.
Evergreen: You win in phase one
If you’re gonna win Best Picture, it’s gonna happen during the nomination process, not after the noms have been announced. This is a campaign mainstay since the turn of the century and, this year, too many films didn’t put the pedal to the metal when they could have before January 17. Obviously, there are often extenuating circumstances. Talent availability, trying to avoid the now dreaded “frontrunner” tag, lack of a media budget, and unfortunate release dates can all play a part. But for those that chose just to let it organically play out, well, “coulda, shoulda, woulda.”
Evergreen: Um, it’s hard to win if you don’t actually campaign
Should we officially call this the Rihanna rule from now on? Listen, we get it. The Savage X Fenty maestra had a busy few months. She was prepping for the Super Bowl Half-Time Show, celebrating a new pregnancy, and, reportedly, debating whether to commit to headlining Coachella or not. But “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” could have gifted her an Academy Award to fit nicely next to her nine Grammy Awards. Her first new music release in five years, the song release was already an organic media event. Oh, and the composition itself was moving, occured during a major moment in the film and, as any competing consultant would tell you, easily could have won. And yet, Rihanna did almost nothing after the movie landed in theaters. There was a music video for the release, eight Instagram posts before opening, a red carpet appearance, and a Golden Globe appearance. That was it. No interviews. Not one live performance. Not even a quote for a feature story on the song in a trade story. Meanwhile, the “Naatu Naatu” songwriters from “RRR” were giving interviews to “almost” anyone who wanted one, appearing at multiple events and screenings and working it to the bone (the song also got a bump from “RRR” director S. S. Rajamouli who was campaigning for Director and Best Picture). You can also throw Lady Gaga into this mix who, despite closing her summer tour with her nominated track “Hold My Hand” went radio silent while shooting “Joker: Folie à Deux.” Her “Top Gun: Maverick” closer was another song that had a legit shot at the Best Original Song Oscar. Would history have changed if Rihanna and Gaga had done any campaigning? They had enough of a chance for it to matter. Sometimes you need to show voters you want it, to get it. But wait, there’s more…have you heard of Tom Cruise? Did you know he was in the mix for a Best Actor nomination for “Maverick”? Did you realize that any campaigning he committed to in phase one of the campaign could have helped him land that nomination let alone help the movie industry saving billion-dollar blockbuster potentially win Best Picture? Focused on shooting the last “Mission: Impossible” movie, Cruise did practically nothing. He showed up at the PGA Awards in February to receive a lifetime achievement award. That was it. Not one interview for the film’s awards campaign. No Q&A’s. Not one AMPAS reception to whip voters up. Nothing. Such a missed opportunity for all involved.
BAFTA is dead, long live the guilds
A primary fact has not changed, the membership of the British Academy of Film and Television Arts has a significant crossover with the membership of its sister organization across the Atlantic. But, that duplication is leaning more and more in the below-the-line or crafts direction. And, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. This year the BAFTA longlists were the second piece of evidence that there was massive support for “All Quiet on the Western Front” (something teased with the Oscar shortlists two weeks earlier). And, in fact, the eventual BAFTA nominations foretold an excellent showing for “All Quiet” when the Oscar nods dropped less than a week later. But, winning is another story. There are always mitigating factors when BAFTA voters pick their nominees (like a land war within a stone’s throw of the U.K. ), but the new committee system meant to increase diverse nominees are perhaps skewing the results when it comes to non-crafts categories. And the winners? 2023 was the eighth time out of the last nine years that the BAFTA Best Film winner did not line up with Oscar’s Best Picture champ (“Nomadland” the lone exception in 2021). And the guilds? The PGA and DGA Awards are now on a three-year winning streak and, for the seventh time in 12 years every SAG Award winner took the respective trophy at the Academy Awards. Can the SAG nominating committee be too broad a quorum to predict overall AMPAS favorites? Certainly when it comes to the ensemble nominations, but when it comes to voting for the individual winners? SAG’s track record makes it a kingmaker.
The long campaign, er, game can work…sometimes
In the contemporary era of campaigning, a spring release is no longer an impediment to winning Best Picture let alone landing a nomination. We’ve now had back-to-back years where films that debuted before the end of March took Oscar’s top prize (“CODA,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once”). And, in something of a surprise, only one of the ten nominees (“Avatar: The Way of Water”) screened for the public after…wait for it…September. This is the first time that’s happened since 2008. So, if you’re concerned about Celine Song’s “Past Lives” Oscar chances after landing a June 2nd release date, well, don’t be. It’s just getting started.
Because you Cannes! Cannes! Cannes!
Speaking of early debuts, let’s give la Croisette some credit. This year three, yes, three Cannes world premieres earned Best Picture nominations, “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Elvis,” and Palme d’Or winner “Triangle of Sadness.” Moreover, this is the second Palme winner to earn a nomination in four years. Inexplicably, there are still some studios afraid to put their films in competition at Cannes. At this point, that’s silly. Accepting a competition bid can only help your film gain more attention if it wins. If a film is mediocre or bad it’s still gonna get negative reviews whether it’s in competition or not. And with the Academy members continuing to dominate the juries (eight of the nine were members in 2023) their choices are telling. This year’s festival jury will be presided over by Ruben Östlund, a now three-time Oscar nominee and AMPAS member.
Talent needs to develop some social media self-awareness
I mean, don’t we all? This year, however, there were a number of AMPAS members whose support for Andrea Riseborough‘s Best Actress campaign appeared to have crossed the line. And we’re not just referring to Francis Fisher who everyone assumes got a private slap on the wrist from The Academy for telling her fellow members how to rank their category voting on Instagram (a major no-no). The optics of a slew of white female members of roughly the same age supporting a “grassroots” Riseborough campaign through numerous social media posts to their millions of followers (or hundreds of thousands) while not doing the same for PoC contenders Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis or even Ana de Armas was a bit cringe-worthy. Even if Riseborough’s performance was worthy of a nomination (it was). Social media awards campaigning has impacted the Oscars almost a decade, but it took a jump during the first year of the pandemic when members, like most of us, were mostly at home, watching everything and spending even more time on their phones than usual. There will always be films and performances that rise to the surface because members come to a consensus on what they like (see “All Quiet’s” ascent, a rare Netflix player that mostly did it on its own in phase one). That being said, talent and guild members with large followings need to be mindful of how their championing can seem unfair in the context of the overall season. Unfortunately, something tells us this is a problem that will rear its ugly head once again in the months and years ahead.
Studios/Publicists gotta be honest with talent
How do we put this delicately? It was evident this past season that some contenders were unaware of the disconnect between the “fake” awards, the guild awards, and the Oscars. Two out of those three shows have a genuine connection to each other. Made for television events such as the Golden Globes and the somehow more embarrassing Critics Choice Awards do not. They may somehow have the similar results, but they exist for their own monetary gain and promotional opportunities for studios to campaign with. It should be very obvious to anyone playing the game that if AMPAS members aren’t participating, there’s a good chance results in the fake awards realm won’t line up with Oscar. And the aforementioned BAFTA committee changes meant to reflect more diversity in their own nomination pool haven’t helped in this particular regard. Awards campaigning is inherently an emotional endeavor. There is joy, there is pain. We are hopeful that in the years ahead consultants, studios, and publicists can temper expectations where they need to be.
Did the 2024 Oscars start at Sundance this past January? Maybe. Will it kick off in earnest at Cannes in May? That’s practically a given at this point.
