And just like that, we’re back. Yes, award season is in full swing, and as for much of this decade, we’ve got a crisis on our hands. The WGA and SAG are still on strike, looking for a fair deal from the studios, while the DGA, who came to an agreement in June, are having their members walk red carpets and conduct Q&As by their lonesome. But, in the midst of this, the fall festival season is carrying on, and some fantastic movies have debuted for the industry and the public alike. The question that should be on everyone’s minds is obvious: What movie will land that coveted Best Picture nomination?
READ MORE: “Poor Things,” “All Of Us Strangers” & “The Holdovers” Ge A Telluride Oscars Boost
Oscar season is almost a year-round endeavor at this point, so it’s no surprise that four of the very likely nominees debuted in either theaters or festivals before August 1. And, no conversation about cinema in 2023 can begin without “Barbenheimer.” The good news for ABC’s ad sales execs, The Academy, and movie lovers is that both films are pretty much locked to land many nominations, including Best Picture. In fact, along with another film that took the top prize at Venice (more on that in a minute), Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” is at the head of the pack to snag that Best Picture win. Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” will likely land many nominations, including a Best Director nod for Gerwig (something we weren’t convinced of a few weeks ago). Nothing is guaranteed, and both studios have to deliver a super-focused campaign. Especially as it appears Nolan and Gerwig will be carrying the campaign torch by themselves for some time.
Both “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” will have their detractors. There will always be a segment of The Academy that won’t support a movie based on a commercial toy product, and Universal has to try to win the top prize with a film that doesn’t have the required “heart.” Granted, it’s been done before (most recently “Parasite“), and “Oppenheimer” may have the cinematic chops to pull out the win anyway.
A movie that arguably has more heart (and you can debate that point, for sure) is Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things.” It was already a massive hit among Academy members at Telluride, and its Venice Golden Lion win has made it even more of a must-see for industry members actually going to screenings (obviously, SAG and WGA are not). And while we are not fans of awards season stats, it is worth noting that only two Golden Lion winners have won Best Picture this century, “The Shape of Water” and “Nomadland.” And. they were both films released by Searchlight Pictures, just as “Poor Things” will be. That is if you believe in stats, of course.
Two other players who could take the crown are waiting quietly in the wings, and both are Cannes Film Festival world premieres. Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” has its fans, and so does Justine Triet’s Palme d’Or winning “Anatomy of a Fall.” The former is certainly Scorsese’s best movie since “Shutter Island” (truth hurts), and he’s landed two Best Picture nominees in the 13 years since. The latter is a supremely well-done courtroom drama. Remember this in January after the noms are announced: if “Anatomy” star Sandra Hüller lands a nomination in the extremely competitive Best Actress race, the movie has a shot at the big one.
As for the rest of the field, let’s just say there are…possibilities.
Here’s your first Contender Countdown for the race to win the 2024 Academy Award for Best Picture.
September 13, 2023
1a “Oppenheimer”
Are we looking at a record number of nominations or not?
1b “Poor Things”
Everyone’s talking about Emma Stone getting Best Actress win no. 2, but could this be Oscar win no. 1 for Mark Ruffalo?
3 “Killers of the Flower Moon”
If Apple, Paramount, and Marty deliver a legitimate box office hit, anything is possible.
4 “Barbie”
Honestly, we wanna know if both Dua Lipa and Billie Eilish can get nominated for Best Original Song. I mean, they are both going to get submitted, right?
5 “Anatomy of a Fall”
If it really does qualify as France’s International Film submission (super competitive and not official yet), it will help NEON in other competitive categories immensely.
6 “Zone of Interest”
A LAFCA, NYFCC, or National Board of Review win would be a massive help.
7 “Maestro”*
Strong reviews out of Venice. It’s hard to believe Netflix won’t get this one in.
8 “Past Lives”
Genuinely concerned that it might get lost among the fall titles and A24’s heavy release schedule, the box office crossed $11 million domestically, which was no small feat. It’s been seen.
9 “The Color Purple”*
Sure, there might be a SAG strike going on deep into the season, but when one of your key producers to campaign for you is the one and only Oprah? Yeah, you’re good.
10 “The Holdovers”
Focus should have enough to get this one across the finish line. Maybe.
11 “All of Us Strangers”
This close to making the cut. The British slash BAFTA contingent may be the difference.
12 “Air”
It’s a movie that will absolutely miss the star power of a SAG-friendly cast if the strikes continue into December. If the strike ends, and can they get on the campaign trail? Watch out.
13 “Dumb Money”
We’re big fans, and AMPAS loves this subject matter. Think it has a better shot than some might think.
14 “Origin”
Ava and NEON have a legit dark horse when it comes to a Best Picture nom, but will enough members watch it?
15 “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
There is a super, super passionate fanbase in the industry for this film, but we remember Sony fighting for a Best Picture nom for “Into the Spider-Verse” five years ago too. Why would this year be different?
16 “May December”
It’s likely just a screenplay and Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore nominations play, but expect Netflix to push this one hard for Best Picture as well.
17 “Priscilla”*
Cailee Spaeny‘s Best Actress honor from the Venice Film Festival certainly shouldn’t be ignored.
18 “Ferrari”*
Slightly better reviews so far than many expected. If it’s a box office player over the holidays, could that move the needle?
19 “Saltburn”
We’re on record as loving it, but recognize it’s a very polarizing movie. Let’s see what happens after its London Film Festival debut.
20 “Napoleon”*
Ridley Scott and Joaquin Phoenix certainly have a good track record together. Those all over the place accents tho. Yeesh.
21 “The Bikeriders”
Likely just a Jodie Comer and Tom Hardy play but…
22 “Asteroid City”
Wes Anderson‘s Oscar hopes appear to be solely in the Live Action Short Film category this year.
23 “The Iron Claw”*
Hoping The Academy gives more love to director Sean Durkin and his latest movie than the Television Academy did for his incredible work on the limited series “Dead Ringers.”
24 “The Boys in the Boat”*
George Clooney! Nazis! The Berlin Olympics! An underdog American rowing team going for gold! Why not!
25 “Freud’s Last Session”*
Anthony Hopkins and Sony Classics have had good luck with The Academy recently, but no festival berth? Even at the AFI Film Fest? Strange.
*Have not been screened by this writer at publication
