The nominees for the 2017 Independent Spirit Awards will be announced at 10 AM tomorrow morning by Edgar Ramirez and Jenny Slate. Certainly prestigious on an industry level, the Spirits are the first real minor marketing win if your film can earn a Best Feature and other subsequent nominations. The problem is they are always the hardest to predict.
Golden Globes? The HFPA have loose lips and word gets around about what they like and what they don’t. SAG Awards? Sorry actors, you’re slightly predictable even when your not. And the Oscars? Well, by then there have been so many precursors and conversations among members that the surprises are true surprises. The Spirit nods, on the other hand, are selected by “experts in the field” — though, yes, “experts” can be questionable.
Per the Spirits own FAQ page: “Three nominating committees are made up of members of the film community — one each for American Narrative films, Documentary films and International Narrative films. Committees may include film critics, film programmers, actors, producers, directors, writers, cinematographers, editors, past nominees and winners, and members of Film Independent’s Board of Directors.”
These are usually small committees, however, and members often have multiple agendas at work. Most of the time they get it right, but other times? Not so much (“The Artist” as an “American” Best Feature nominee and eventual winner? Please…). Film Independent, which runs the Spirits, became very aware of the concern that too many of the nominees were starting to duplicate the Academy Award selections (partially due to The Academy’s changing membership and tastes), but can only do so much when such a small number of voters are participating initially (all Film Independent members get to vote on the winners).
There are some things we do know, however. A number of films you might have thought were eligible such as “Nocturnal Animals” and “Fences” are not. It is my understanding that Lionsgate did not submit “La La Land” because its budget is significantly over the $30 million threshold, but that might have changed and they might have appealed on the film having “independent spirit” to get in. Again, not expecting the Oscar frontrunner to be part of the mix this year. Additionally, the Spirits tend to naturally deviate a bit from their New York counterparts, the Gotham Awards. So, it’s possible “Everybody Wants Some!!” and “Paterson” don’t experience the same love from the West Coast (or not).
Keeping all this in mind, here’s a look at some potential nominees in the major categories outside of Cinematography, Editing and the award for films under $500,000. And as for what movie will win the Robert Altman Ensemble Award it’s either “Moonlight” or “Manchester by the Sea.” We’d bet on the former.
Best Feature
“American Honey”
“The Fits”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
“20th Century Women”
Possible:
“Captain Fantastic”
“Hell or High Water”
“Jackie”
“Love & Friendship”
“Loving”
“Paterson”
“Swiss Army Man”
“The Witch”
Best Director
Andrea Arnold, “American Honey”
Anna Rose Holmer, “The Fits”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, “Swiss Army Man”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Possible:
Antonio Campos, “Christine”
Jim Jarmusch, “Paterson”
Pablo Larraín, “Jackie”
David Mackenzie, “Hell or High Water”
Mike Mills, “20th Century Women”
Kelly Reichardt, “Certain Women”
Best Screenplay
Jim Jarmusch, “Paterson”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Mike Mills, “20th Century Women”
Taylor Sheridan, “Hell or High Water”
Possible:
Saela Davis, Anna Rose Holmer, Lisa Kjerulff, “The Fits”
Chad Hartigan, “Morris From America”
Richard Linklater, “Everybody Wants Some!!”
Noah Oppenheim, “Jackie”
Kelly Reichardt, “Certain Women”
Richard Tanne, “Southside With You”
Best First Screenplay
Andrew Ahn, “Spa Night”
Clea DuVall, “The Intervention”
Saela Davis, Anna Rose Holmer, Lisa Kjerulff, “The Fits”
Chris Kelly, “Other People”
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, “Swiss Army Man”
Best Male Lead
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Adam Driver, “Paterson”
Joel Edgerton, “Loving”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Daniel Radcliffe, “Swiss Army Man”
Possible:
Parker Sawyers, “Southside With You”
Joe Seo, “Spa Night”
Best Female Lead
Kate Beckinsale, “Love & Friendship”
Annette Bening, “20th Century Women”
Sasha Lane, “American Honey”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Possible:
Sally Field, “Hello My Name Is Doris”
Rebecca Hall, “Christine”
Royalty Hightower, “The Fits”
Tika Sumpter, “Southside With You”
Best Supporting Male
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Ralph Fiennes, “A Bigger Splash”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Craig Robinson, “Morris From America”
Possible:
Andre Holland, “Moonlight”
Tracy Letts, “Indignation”
Trevante Rhodes, “Moonlight”
Best Supporting Female
Greta Gerwig, “20th Century Women”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Melanie Lynskey, “The Intervention”
Molly Shannon, “Other People”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Possible:
Lily Gladstone, “Certain Women”
Aja Naomi King, “Birth of a Nation”
Kristen Stewart, “Certain Women”
Best Documentary
“Cameraperson”
“O.J. Made in America”
“I Am Not Your Negro”
“13th”
“Weiner”
Possible:
“The Eagle Huntress”
“Fire at Sea”
“Miss Sharon Jones!”
Best International Film
“Barakah Meets Barakah”
“Elle”
“The Lobster”
“Neruda”
“Toni Erdmann”
Possible:
“The Age of Shadows”
“The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki”
“Land of Mine”
“The Salesman”
What films do you think are getting nominated for Independent Spirit Awards this year? Share your thoughts below.
