Conventional wisdom says that you don’t win Best Picture after the nominations are announced, but during the nominations voting round itself. That likely means between now and January 12, when Oscar nomination ballots are due, a majority of members will not only decide their first choice, but likely their second, third and fourth as well. Maybe those secondary choices will change slightly during the final phase of voting, but not dramatically. So, we’ve got a frontrunner right? We’ll, sure, but this is a rare year where we simply aren’t sure what it is yet.
Snubs and Surprises of the 2018 SAG Awards nominees
At the moment, my gut says it’s Jordan Peele’s “Get Out. “ The film earned a SAG ensemble nod as expected, but star Daniel Kaluuya surprised earning an Outstanding Male Actor in a Lead Role nomination. It’s also won seven Best Picture or Best Film honors including the Gotham Awards late last month. Those are mostly from regional critics groups, but no other film has come close to that sort of reception. “The Florida Project” and “Lady Bird” both have four wins while “The Shape of Water” and “The Post” have two. All the other contenders? Just one (although a number of groups have not announced their year-end winners yet).
And then there are the other two guild indicators; PGA and DGA. Could Peele get shut out of DGA nomination? Absolutely. He may be relegated to the First Time Feature category which isn’t ideal. Could he get snubbed by the Director’s Branch? Sadly, yes, but so could “Lady Bird’s” Greta Gerwig, “Three Billboard’s” Martin McDonagh or “Call Me By Your Name’s” Luca Guadagnino. Could the PGA honors throw all the indicators for a complete loop? It’s certainly happened before.
Best and Worst of the 2018 Golden Globes nominations
And then there are the outside influences. Could Donald Trump tweet something about “The Post” that could give The Academy the greenlight to give Steven Spielberg‘s picture the top prize? You’re kidding, right? Could yet another sexual harassment story break regarding a key figure in any of these contenders? Um, after Nov. 8, 2016 let’s make sure to never say never?
Lot’s of ifs. Lots of question marks. No consensus. Except for the voters, who have likely made their pick already.
Ponder.
December 19, 2017.
1. “Get Out”
Universal has an eye-popping print campaign all over LA, but do they need to take it to the next level to win it all? (TV spots, Instagram Ads, etc.)
2. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Leading SAG Awards, likely Golden Globe Drama winner, strong box office. How does Searchlight get it to the consensus or have they already?
3. “Lady Bird”
Has gotten everything you expected from Globes and Guilds and fantastic box office but do Academy members really think it’s worthy of their top vote? May not matter if it’s in the top three of voting, but many you ask now say “No.” Doesn’t mean it can’t win though.
4. “The Post”
One Trump tweet away. Not a joke.
5. “The Shape of Water”
If it had landed a SAG ensemble nomination you could argue it has just as good a chance as the top 3. Problem is no film has won Best Picture without an ensemble nod since “Braveheart” in 1996. Could be this year’s “The Revenant” which means lots of nods and lots of wins, but can’t get the big one.
6. “Dunkirk”
Like “Shape” it badly needed a SAG ensemble nod. “Slumdog Millionaire” won Best Picture without an acting nomination, can Christopher Nolan’s epic pull off the same feat?
7. “Call Me By Your Name”
Frustrated by Sony Classics’ campaign. They were lucky LAFCA came through, but the SAG snubs of Armie Hammer and Michael Stuhlbarg were telling. Needs to be a bigger box office hit for a chance at winning and it feels like a major opportunity was lost the past two weeks.
8. “The Florida Project”
It’s in, but sadly has little shot to win. Could Sean Baker sneak in with a Directing nod though?
9. “The Big Sick”
The SAG support was a huge relief for Amazon Studios. Still has a shot at a nod especially if there are nine nominees again.
10. “Darkest Hour”/“Phantom Thread”
There haven’t been ten nominees since the rules changed, but if there were it’s a pick ‘em between these two Focus Features releases. Either one could also sneak in the ninth spot, too.
Current predictions (updated as of Dec. 18):
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Director
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay