Just when you thought the Best Picture race was settled two new players enter the game. Granted, Adam McKay’s “Vice” and Clint Eastwood’s “The Mule” weren’t really off the radar. Anytime the legendary Eastwood makes a new film it’s considered Oscar bait whether it’s warranted or not and McKay’s last feature, “The Big Short,” won Best Adapted Screenplay with nominations for Best Picture and Best Director. Still, we had to see something before going there. Now we have, so here we are.
Trailers are trailers. They can only hide so much. They can make some comedies look less humorous than they are (hey there “A Simple Favor”), but they can rarely make something funnier than it truly is. Could Eastwood’s “Mule” look less emotional and heartbreaking than Warner Brothers’ preview is making it out to be? Possibly, but that’s a bad angle for the studio to cheat with a mainstream audience. Instead, like Robert Redford and “Old Man and the Gun,” “The Mule” looks like a last great performance by an actor, Eastwood, who has never won an acting Oscar (although we highly doubt the 88-year-old is stepping out of the spotlight yet).
“Vice,” on the other hand, looks like a very dark comedy about the life of former Vice President Dick Cheney. In fact, the intense drama is there if you look close enough in a flash of a scene with Amy Adams playing Cheney’s notorious wife, Lynne. Most startling about “Vice,” however, is the utter physical transformation Christian Bale has made portraying Cheney. It’s so impressive even in this context that it should give pause to anyone who assumes “A Star is Born’s” Bradley Cooper is a lock to win Best Actor (he absolutely still could, but it’s not a foregone conclusion).
Neither film will be seen for at least a few weeks (or more), but it gives another hint of just how competitive this year is going to be. Keeping that in mind, here are your latest Best Picture rankings…
October 5, 2018
1. “A Star is Born”
Rave reviews, but can it outperform expectations at the box office? We’re betting it can…
2. “First Man”
Going up against the second weekend of Bradley and Gaga on the 12th. Realistic expectations everyone. This is a long play.
3. “The Favourite”
Not every year Jennifer Lawrence and, cough, Taylor Swift attend your opening of the NYFF. Oh, and did we mention it killed? Now to charm the guilds and Oscar members who have been hearing buzz since their peers saw it at Telluride.
4. “Roma”
Dear Netflix, you’re probably thinking it’s a phase 2 play and might distract from a Best Picture win but we humbly suggest you don’t take the Foreign Langauge Film Oscar for granted.
5. “Black Panther”
Is this your potential stealth Best Picture winner?
6. “BlacKkKlansman”
Is this your other potential stealth Best Picture winner?
7. “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Look for a ton more love after it screens at the famed Apollo Theater on Tuesday.
8. “Vice”
I mean, looks like it’s in to me, but hey, I only do this for a living.
9. “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
A strong limited opening would really help the industry pay attention to Marielle Heller‘s wonderful gem of a movie. No pressure Searchlight.
10. “Widows”
Waiting in the wings for a November splash.
Almost there
“At Eternity’s Gate”
Closing New York Film Festival in about a week. A critical boost would do wonders for Willem Dafoe‘s Best Actor campaign.
“Boy Erased”
As Best Actress gets increasingly competitive, Nicole Kidman’s fantastic supporting performance here might be her safest play at a nomination.
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
The press will see it on Saturday night…except for moi because some of us made plans three months ago and who the hell does a screening on a Sat. night in October? We keep those nights open in November. Sigh. Look for social media reaction, however. We’ll post about it eventually.
“Beautiful Boy”
We’re gonna repeat last edition’s comment: Needs a critical or commercial groundswell closer to release to end up being more than a Timothée Chalamet showcase.
“Crazy Rich Asians”
Will there even be a Best Picture campaign? Does it deserve one? Ponder.
“The Front Runner”
Hoping for a Blue Wave to make this election day opening a truly celebratory one.
“Green Book”
Is it too broad for a Best Picture play in 2018 or will members simply love it too much to matter? We’ll find out sooner rather than later.
“The Mule”
Are we looking at a Best Picture nominee contender or just a legit Best Actor run for Eastwood?
“The Sisters Brothers”
The limited box office hasn’t been over the moon, but this might be one film that plays better with the Academy and guilds than general audiences.
Potential Party Crasher
“Ad Astra”
Could this still be happening with 20th Century Fox moving the PG-13 “Deadpool” to Christmas? In all seriousness, we’re very, very confused.
Thoughts? Disagreements? Solutions for an end to the conflict in Syria? Share your thoughts below.
Best Picture
Best Director
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Foreign Language Film
